Lists and Prisoners: A Routine Exchange Between Pakistan and India

A New Year's Day Exchange

On January 1st, as many nations marked the start of a new year, Pakistan and India conducted a pair of long-standing diplomatic exchanges. These were not festive celebrations, but procedural acts rooted in bilateral agreements. The two neighboring countries, through their respective foreign ministries, shared lists of their nuclear installations and facilities. Separately, they also exchanged lists of civilian prisoners currently held in each other's jails. These actions, while seemingly technical, are a small part of the fragile diplomatic framework that exists between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

The Nuclear Lists Agreement

The exchange of lists detailing nuclear sites is a requirement under a specific agreement. The Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities was signed by Pakistan and India in 1988. It came into force in 1991. The core promise of this treaty is that neither country will attack the other's listed nuclear facilities. To make this promise operational, Article 2 of the agreement mandates that the two nations inform each other about the locations of their nuclear installations every year on January 1st. This was the 33rd consecutive year this exchange has taken place.

What the Lists Contain and Their Purpose

The lists themselves are not public documents. Their contents are shared directly between the two governments via diplomatic channels. They are understood to include locations of civilian nuclear power plants, research reactors, fuel fabrication plants, and uranium enrichment facilities. The primary purpose is to prevent a misunderstanding or an accidental strike on a nuclear site during a period of conflict, which could have catastrophic and unpredictable consequences. It is a confidence-building measure, albeit a very basic one, aimed at reducing the risk of a nuclear incident.

The Exchange of Prisoner Lists

The second exchange involved lists of civilian prisoners and fishermen. This practice is governed by the Consular Access Agreement of 2008. Under this pact, both nations are required to share lists of each other's citizens held in their prisons on January 1st and July 1st of every year. The Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated its list contained 266 Indian civilian prisoners and 95 Indian fishermen currently in Pakistani custody. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated its list included 51 Pakistani civilian prisoners and 654 Pakistani fishermen in Indian custody.

The Plight of Fishermen

The high number of fishermen on these lists points to a persistent and humanitarian issue. The maritime boundary between Pakistan and India in the Arabian Sea is disputed and not clearly demarcated in some areas. Fishermen from both sides, often using small boats without advanced navigation, frequently stray across the perceived boundary. They are then arrested by the other country's maritime security agencies for illegal entry. These fishermen can spend months or even years in detention before being repatriated, causing significant hardship to their families.

A Ritual Amidst Strained Relations

These exchanges occur independently of the overall state of political relations between Islamabad and New Delhi. Relations have been especially strained since 2019, following India's decision to revoke the special autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, a territory both nations claim. High-level talks are frozen, and cross-border tensions along the Line of Control in Kashmir periodically flare. In this context, the continued adherence to these January 1st agreements is notable. It suggests that both sides see value in maintaining these specific channels of communication, even when broader dialogue has collapsed.

The Process for Prisoner Release

Exchanging lists is only the first step. The Consular Access Agreement provides a framework for what happens next. Once lists are shared, both countries grant consular officers access to these prisoners. This allows diplomats to verify the prisoner's welfare and facilitate legal representation. The actual release and repatriation of prisoners is a separate, often slow, diplomatic process. It typically involves verifying nationalities, completing legal sentences, or navigating judicial procedures. Some prisoners remain incarcerated for years after their sentences end due to bureaucratic delays.

Public and Diplomatic Reactions

Official statements from both governments were brief and factual, sticking to the procedural nature of the event. There were no political declarations attached. In Pakistan, the Foreign Office statement included a call for India to release and repatriate Pakistani prisoners, particularly those who have completed their sentences. Independent analysts and human rights groups in both nations often use the occasion to highlight the humanitarian aspects, urging swifter repatriation processes, especially for the fishermen and civilian prisoners held beyond their terms.

The Limits of the Exercise

While these exchanges are a routine diplomatic practice, their limitations are clear. They do not resolve the underlying disputes that lead to the prisoners' arrests, such as the maritime boundary issue or the complex situation in Kashmir. They also do not address the cases of military personnel who are sometimes captured after incidents along the border; those are handled through military channels. The exchanges are a mechanism for managing specific consequences of the rivalry, not for reducing the rivalry itself.

A Measure of Stability

In a relationship characterized by deep distrust and periodic crisis, the uninterrupted continuation of these annual exchanges for over three decades offers a small measure of stability. It indicates a mutual, if minimal, commitment to certain rules and protocols. Both capitals have chosen to uphold these agreements even during severe downturns in relations. This suggests a shared understanding that even in conflict, some lines of communication must remain open to manage risks, particularly those related to nuclear safety and civilian welfare.

The Human Cost Behind the Lists

Behind the numbers on the prisoner lists are individual stories. The fishermen are often poor individuals supporting families, detained far from home for a simple error in navigation. Civilian prisoners may include people who overstayed visas, faced allegations of espionage, or were arrested under various laws. Their prolonged detention, frequently in prisons with difficult conditions, represents a significant human cost of the ongoing tensions between the two countries. Their families advocate for their return, often with limited resources.

Looking Ahead

The January 1st exchanges for 2025 are now complete. The focus will shift to the consular teams who work to verify the status of the listed prisoners and pursue repatriation cases. The next procedural exchange is set for July 1st. The larger political relationship shows no immediate sign of a breakthrough. Therefore, these technical, agreement-mandated exchanges will likely remain one of the few consistent points of direct official contact between Pakistan and India for the foreseeable future. They are a small thread of diplomacy in a fabric defined largely by discord.

A Routine with Significance

The exchange of nuclear site lists and prisoner information between Pakistan and India is a diplomatic routine. It is not a sign of warming relations or an impending peace process. Instead, it is an acknowledgment by both nations that even in a state of enduring competition, some risks are too great to ignore, and some humanitarian obligations are too basic to abandon. The continued practice of this ritual, year after year, underscores the complex reality of their relationship: one where deep-seated conflict coexists with fragile, narrowly focused cooperation.

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