ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29, 2025

On December 29, 2025, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, offering a comprehensive snapshot of the evolving military, informational, and political dynamics shaping the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This assessment, widely referenced by Western media and analysts, sheds light on battlefield activities, propaganda efforts, diplomatic maneuvering, and the broader strategic environment. �

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Kremlin Claims and Disinformation: The Alleged Drone Strike

One of the most headline-grabbing aspects of the December 29 assessment was the Kremlin’s claim that Ukrainian forces conducted a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on that day. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, publicized this claim as part of a broader narrative portraying Ukraine as an aggressive actor striking deep into Russian territory. �

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However, ISW cast significant doubt on the credibility of this claim. Open-source analysis found no verifiable evidence — such as geolocated video footage, reports of explosions or smoke, or local official confirmation — supporting the assertion that such a strike occurred. Historically, confirmed Ukrainian drone operations in Russia have produced clear observable signals, none of which have been documented for this alleged incident. �

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also categorically rejected the Kremlin narrative, warning that Moscow might use such claims to justify intensified attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure and possibly derail ongoing peace negotiations with Western partners. �

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Military Operations Across the Frontlines

Russian Offensive Moves

Despite claiming strategic initiative, Russian military advances remained uneven and often unverified across several sectors:

In northern and eastern areas such as Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, Russian forces conducted ground assaults and infiltration missions, sometimes without confirmed territorial gains. ISW reported sporadic operations near settlements like Kozacha Lopan, Izbytske, and Lyman, yet many of these claims were not corroborated by independent geolocated evidence. �

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In the Donetsk and southern Zaporizhia directions, Russian units pressed attacks around Orikhiv, Hulyaipole, and Dobropillya, though progress was limited and met with stiff Ukrainian resistance. �

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Russian commanders continued to publicly aggrandize tactical achievements — for example, asserting expanded control over towns such as Kostyantynivka and Lyman — claims that ISW noted were exaggerated compared with observable evidence. �

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Ukrainian Counter-Moves

Ukrainian forces maintained pressure, achieving localized tactical advances:

Siversk, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole saw renewed Ukrainian movements, indicating the ongoing resilience of Kyiv’s military posture on contested fronts. �

Kyiv Post

Reports documented Ukrainian saboteur actions, including a strike on a Russian ammunition depot near Melitopol, underscoring persistent Ukrainian capabilities to target logistical hubs behind Russian lines. �

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These developments reflect a dynamic battlefield where both sides incur personnel and material losses while attempting to shape the narrative around their progress.

War Crimes and Humanitarian Impact

The assessment highlighted continued Russian war crimes in occupied and contested regions, including documented executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Donetsk and the killing of civilians in Pokrovsk. These violations underscore the grave humanitarian toll and the systemic nature of abuses linked to Russian forces in active combat zones. �

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Drone and Missile Campaigns

The Russian air campaign remained aggressive and destructive, with remote strikes aimed at both Ukraine’s military forces and critical infrastructure:

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly downed a significant number of drones launched by Russia around December 28–29, but several strikes successfully hit energy facilities, prompting prolonged outages and deepening winter hardships across civilian regions. �

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This aerial pressure represents a key Russian tactic to erode Ukraine’s logistical and electrical resilience, especially during the harsh winter period.

Regional Security and NATO-Border Incursions

Beyond the main battlefields, the assessment reported several dozen Belarusian smuggling balloons entering Polish airspace, along with a near-border reconnaissance aircraft interception. These incidents point to Russia’s increasingly complex regional footprint and signal potential challenges for NATO allies’ airspace security. �

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Such activities suggest that the conflict’s effects are not strictly confined to Ukraine’s borders but ripple outward, affecting adjacent nations and raising risks of inadvertent escalation.

Diplomacy, Peace Talks, and Strategic Messaging

Notably, the report placed the alleged drone strike narrative in the context of broader diplomatic efforts underway:

Bilateral and multilateral negotiations involving Ukrainian, U.S., and European delegates have progressed, focusing on a 20-point peace framework — though Russia’s continued rejection of key proposals remains a major barrier. �

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Analysts suggest that Moscow’s disinformation campaigns may seek to undermine trust in Ukraine and Western mediators, potentially softening global support for Kyiv or justifying harsher military retaliation. �

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Thus, the conflict isn’t just kinetic; it is also an information war, where narratives about battlefield success or failure significantly shape international responses and strategic calculations.

Conclusion: A Conflict at Many Fronts

The ISW’s December 29, 2025 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment paints a picture of a war that is simultaneously fluid and entrenched. While Russia continues its offensive operations and information campaigns, Ukrainian forces demonstrate resilience and localized successes. Meanwhile, claims like the alleged drone strike on Putin’s residence highlight how misinformation can be weaponized to influence perceptions and political leverage.

For policymakers, analysts, and observers alike, this assessment underscores the importance of critically evaluating battlefield claims against verifiable evidence — and recognizing that the war for Ukraine’s future is fought not only with weapons but with information and international diplomacy.