Israel Racing to Curb Iran Missile Surge, Warns ‘No Airtight Solution’ to Thousands of Rockets

Senior Israeli defence officials have warned that Iran is rapidly expanding its ballistic missile arsenal, and that there is currently “no airtight solution” to a potential barrage involving thousands of missiles targeting Israel. The assessment comes as Tehran increases missile production and intensifies its challenge to Israel’s military defences, according to military sources familiar with internal Israeli discussions.
A Growing Missile Threat
Israeli intelligence estimates indicate that Iran could possess at least 5,000 ballistic missiles by the end of 2027, with production rates of around 100 missiles per month. Officials say this volume reflects a deliberate strategy by Tehran to rely on missile quantity rather than purely technological advancement to overwhelm defensive systems. Iran’s accelerated output has alarmed Israeli planners, who believe that sheer numbers could eventually saturate even the most advanced air defence networks.
During Operation Rising Lion in June 2025, Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and roughly 1,000 drones against Israeli targets. Israel’s multi-layered defensive systems — including Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome — intercepted a majority of the threats, but officials acknowledge that the success was not complete. Even with high interception rates, missiles that penetrated defences caused significant damage in cities such as Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Bat Yam, Haifa and at health facilities like Soroka Medical Center.
Defence Challenges and Limitations
Israeli military planners emphasize that while layered air defences are among the most sophisticated in the world, they are not designed to withstand sustained, large-scale barrages numbered in the thousands. “There is no airtight answer to a scenario of thousands of missiles,” one senior defence source told reporters, underscoring that existing systems could reduce — but not fully eliminate — casualties and damage in a massive attack.
This reality has prompted a dual strategy within Israel’s defence establishment: continue strengthening defensive capabilities while also seeking to disrupt Iran’s missile production and launch infrastructure before threats materialize. The shift reflects an understanding that defensive interceptors alone will likely be insufficient if Tehran’s arsenal continues to grow.
A Shift to Offensive Operations
Following the 2025 conflict, Israeli forces adopted an expanded offensive posture aimed at attacking missile launchers, supply depots, and production facilities inside Iran. During Operation Rising Lion, Israeli warplanes struck more than 120 mobile launchers and destroyed several dozen missile production sites and ammunition stockpiles at distances of up to roughly 1,500 kilometres. This marked a strategic change, combining traditional interception with pre-emptive strike operations designed to erode Iran’s ability to launch massed attacks.
However, Iranian missile production has proven resilient. Despite sanctions and military pressure, Tehran has continuously rebuilt its missile infrastructure. Some defence analysts now warn that Iran’s use of underground facilities and distributed production networks could enable sustained output even in the face of concerted disruption efforts.
Regional and U.S. Cooperation
The growing missile threat has deepened security cooperation between Israel and the United States. Officials from both countries routinely exchange intelligence and coordinate measures aimed at monitoring Iran’s capabilities and mitigating potential escalation. The U.S. has also provided components and support for air defence systems deployed in the region.
Despite this cooperation, Israeli defence officials remain sceptical about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs with Tehran that would curb missile production. Discussions between Washington and Tehran have largely focused on nuclear issues, with missile programmes stubbornly resistant to negotiation. Israeli officials argue that until missile production is brought under effective oversight, the threat will persist.
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Civil Defence and Preparedness
Israeli authorities have also emphasized the importance of civil defence measures to protect civilians. The government regularly updates shelters, early warning systems, and public education campaigns designed to minimize casualties during missile alerts. Nationwide drills simulate large-scale barrages, reinforcing community readiness. However, the scale of potential threats means there are limits to how much civil measures alone can mitigate widespread impact.
The Path Ahead
As Iran’s missile programme grows, Israeli military planners acknowledge that the country’s defences will be tested repeatedly. Rather than seeking a single “silver bullet” solution, the focus has shifted to a sustained campaign of defensive upgrades, offensive disruption, intelligence cooperation and civil protection.
The stakes are high, and the challenges are complex. With missile counts projected to rise into the thousands, Israeli officials warn that while damage can be reduced through combined efforts, no strategy offers perfect protection against a concerted long-range missile assault.