Iran’s Ailing Supreme Leader Resorts to His Only Playbook as Crises Mount and Protests Erupt

Iran is once again at a crossroads. As economic hardship deepens, regional tensions escalate, and public anger spills into the streets, the country’s aging Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appears increasingly reliant on a familiar and rigid strategy: repression, defiance, and ideological consolidation. With his health reportedly deteriorating and succession questions looming, Iran’s leadership is doubling down on the only playbook it has ever trusted—crackdowns at home and resistance abroad.
A Nation Under Multiple Pressures
Iran today faces a convergence of crises rarely seen in its modern history. Years of harsh international sanctions have weakened the economy, sending inflation soaring and shrinking the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. Essential goods have become expensive, unemployment remains high—especially among youth—and corruption scandals continue to erode public trust.
At the same time, regional instability has intensified. Iran’s involvement in proxy conflicts across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Yemen, has drawn increasing scrutiny and retaliation. Tensions with Israel and the United States remain dangerously high, while diplomatic efforts to revive nuclear negotiations have largely stalled.
These pressures are not abstract. They are felt daily by Iranians who struggle to afford food, fuel, and housing. For many, frustration has transformed into open dissent.
Protests as a Persistent Threat
Over the past few years, Iran has witnessed repeated waves of protests—sparked by economic grievances, political repression, and demands for social freedoms. While the intensity of demonstrations fluctuates, their persistence signals a deeper shift: fear is no longer enough to ensure silence.
Women, students, workers, and ethnic minorities have increasingly challenged the state’s authority. Social media, despite heavy censorship, continues to amplify dissenting voices and expose state violence. Each protest cycle weakens the narrative that the Islamic Republic enjoys unquestioned legitimacy.
For the Supreme Leader, these protests represent not just unrest, but an existential challenge to the system he has ruled over for decades.
The Only Playbook: Repression and Resistance
Faced with mounting instability, Khamenei has turned to the same tactics that have defined his leadership since 1989. Domestically, this means empowering security forces, expanding surveillance, tightening media controls, and issuing harsh sentences to protesters and activists. Dialogue or reform remains off the table.
The message from the top is clear: concessions are seen as weakness.
Externally, Iran continues to frame itself as a besieged revolutionary state standing against Western “arrogance.” Anti-US and anti-Israel rhetoric intensifies whenever internal pressure rises, serving to redirect public attention outward and rally hardline supporters.
This strategy has worked before—at least temporarily. But critics argue it is increasingly ineffective in a society that is younger, more connected, and less ideologically driven than previous generations.
Health Concerns and the Succession Question
Adding to the uncertainty is the Supreme Leader’s declining health. At 85, Khamenei has reportedly faced recurring medical issues, fueling speculation about who might succeed him. While the Iranian system is designed to project continuity, succession is a sensitive moment that could destabilize elite power structures.
In response, the leadership appears focused on tightening internal cohesion. Loyalists are elevated, dissenters purged, and institutions like the Revolutionary Guard gain even more influence. Stability, in this view, must be enforced—not negotiated.
A Strategy Running Out of Time?
The central question is whether Iran’s old playbook can still deliver results. Repression may suppress protests, but it does not address the root causes of discontent. Economic mismanagement, lack of political participation, and social restrictions continue to alienate large segments of the population.
Moreover, international isolation limits Iran’s ability to recover economically, while regional confrontations risk dragging the country into wider conflict.
For now, the Supreme Leader’s approach reflects a belief that endurance—not reform—is the path to survival. But history suggests that systems relying solely on force often struggle to adapt when circumstances change.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Iran
Iran stands at a defining moment. As crises multiply and protests refuse to disappear, the leadership’s reliance on repression and defiance may buy time—but not stability. With an ailing Supreme Leader at the helm and a restless population below, the gap between rulers and ruled continues to widen.
Whether Iran can navigate this period without deeper turmoil remains uncertain. What is clear is that the old playbook, once seen as unshakable, is being tested like never before.