How Does The World Respond to Trump's Resurgence?

The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election of 2024 was echoed worldwide, together with world leaders and international media having their say. 

The political scene throughout the first hours following his victory displayed a peculiar demeanor: nations everywhere were racing to respond, balancing pragmatic diplomacy against ideological undercurrents. 

Messages of congratulations and concern streamed in from every part of the globe, with reactions running from jubilant endorsements to strategic caution in the complex tapestry of geopolitics in the wake of Trump's resurgence.

The World Reacts

Phones were abuzz as world leaders, from autocrats to democrats, scrambled to offer their congratulatory words or express their unease. One couldn't but notice the victory of the leader of the largest economy, which would influence not only the global markets but even the outcome of wars, the progress, or regression of international environmental efforts. For many countries, the question wasn't if but how to get in bed with Trump as he negotiated the complexities of his America-First policy.

The first salvo of letters to Trump reflected both faces of global politics. While some leaders, especially the ones with a leaning towards right-wing populism and autocracy, felt unbridled jubilation with his victory, other world leaders, especially in the liberal democratic axis, feared the implications of a second term into the hands of the capricious Trump. That was a clear indication that the world's interaction with the United States was to take a new dimension with emphasis on readjustment against the background of Trump's foreign policy ambition.

Russia: A Calculated Optimism

The Kremlin, too, restrained itself from a word of congratulation publicly, but what it did say spoke volumes. Trump's victory speech was given blanket coverage by Russian state media; his opponent, Kamala Harris, was derided as a representative of the liberal establishment that is despised. But despite this ostensible backing of Trump, the Kremlin is cautious, fully aware that Trump-while seemingly malleable-couldn't be relied upon to deliver substantial, long-term benefits to Russia. Trump failed in the first term to reduce the sanctions or lift the pressure on Russia, and Moscow is unlikely to see any meaningful shift in Washington's stance.

Yet, Russia's hopes are with Trump splitting the West. The Kremlin believes that Trump can destroy NATO and cut off military aid to Ukraine to such an extent that the balance in the region would be tilted to Russian interests. In case there were no U.S. support, Ukrainian resistance to the advances of Russia would weaken and Europe would not be able to compensate for what was destroyed due to a lack of American support.

Ukraine: A Delicate Balance of Diplomacy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy quickly moved to congratulate Trump, no doubt more out of necessity than genuine sentiment. All too aware that his country's survival is based upon the support of great patrons such as the United States, the threat of Trump pulling military aid from Ukraine is a still-pending sword of Damocles over their head. He and his team have worked ceaselessly to keep open lines with Trump, in hope that the relationship may pay dividends despite the bitterness generated in the past.

Trump has publicly suggested that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, but Ukrainian officials believe such an outcome might come at the cost of ceding territory to Russia-something that would be disastrous for their long-term sovereignty. The unnerving feeling is present in Kyiv, where the possibility of a "peace deal" with Trump, modeled after Putin's demands, seems realistic.

Israel: A Strong Ally in Waiting

By contrast, Israel's reply was remarkably effusive. He was first congratulated by the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, who described Trump's victory as the "greatest comeback in history." During his first term, Israel benefited from some of Trump's key policies ranging from recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, relocation of the U.S. embassy, and recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. For Netanyahu and his right-wing government, Trump's second term promises a continuation of policies that considerably serve their interests.

With the Gaza conflict still fresh, Netanyahu assumes that with Trump back in office, Israel will have more of an ally in Washington-one less likely to pressure Israel on contentious issues such as settlements or human rights abuses. Trump's words of peace and stability in the Middle East have been music to the ears of Israel's leadership, but there are strategic concerns too about the future of relations with the U.S. should Trump change tack in other areas - not least Iran.

The United Kingdom: Pragmatic Engagement

In the case of the United Kingdom, Donald Trump's election has represented a marked recalibration of its diplomatic stance. Labour leader Keir Starmer did extend his formal congratulations, which, while clearly uncomfortable, was still a quite felicitous gesture. He had previously attempted to cultivate a relationship with Trump, though the presence of Labour figures who had openly criticized Trump introduced an element of awkwardness into his response. In Westminster, questions were quickly raised about how Britain would navigate its "special relationship" with the U.S. under a second Trump administration-most specifically about trade relations and the impact of tariffs.

The difficult balance for the U.K. is how to continue ties with the United States while managing the economic consequences of the policies of Mr. Trump. Of course, the real risk is that the imposition of U.S. tariffs on British goods might deliver a cold shower to the post-Brexit economy, and significant increases in U.K. defense spending may be required to meet Trump's vision for NATO. Domestically, right-wing populists like Nigel Farage may seize upon Trump's victory as a launchpad into political relevance, further entangling an already messy situation.

France: A Reserved Engagement

French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to congratulate Trump and offer to work with him on international issues, including the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. Until now, the previous relationship between Macron and Trump was cool; with a presidential smile, Macron presented himself as a pragmatic partner looking for common ground with the newly elected president. France's role in Europe, certainly in the context of how the EU has stood up to Trump in the first term in office, will likely continue to be dictated by the ambition Macron has for France to become the leading voice of Europe.

Meanwhile, the French far-right-of which Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National is included-received Trump's return with more cautious optimism-a sign of how right-wing leaders in Europe might look toward Trump as a source of support but are wary about how much it's going to cost them to be too closely aligned with his politics. The debate over Europe's "strategic autonomy"-the catch-all name for a concept very much associated with Macron-is going to only grow in traction as European countries consider their positions vis-à-vis the U.S. going into the future.

Italy: A Bridge to America

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni adopted a congratulatory tone toward Trump, similar to most of her European peers, underlining the shared values and historical ties between the US and Italy. Italy has been particularly sensitive to any changes in US policy, with significant economic interests in both the US and the European Union. The leader of the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia party, Meloni, was most anxious to exploit Trump's victory by furthering Italy's status as a fundamental partner in Europe, since this would serve to strengthen Italy's influence in the transatlantic relationship.

But Meloni's government may well be in for some economic shocks from a second Trump term too. With the US still a major export market, Trump's announced tariffs and trade policy will be liable to take Italy's economy to breaking point. Italy's anemic contribution to NATO will do little to help calm Trump's ire either and will further add to the tension within the alliance.

China: Nervous Silence

China's officially very muted response to Trump's election underlined the complexity of U.S.-China relations. Chinese state-controlled media largely ignored Trump's victory, but China's leadership is no doubt following the situation with a close eye. The trade war, escalated during Trump's first term, is one of the more contentious issues between the two countries. China is uneasy over what happens next in its relationship with the United States.

Either way, China's internal approach to the Trump first presidency has been one of peripheral engagement with the U.S. while it prepares for the eventuality of a confrontation. In so far as Beijing is concerned, the threat of a renewed trade war and further decoupling remains the worst nightmare, as it has increasingly looked toward nurturing its sphere of influence, especially in Africa and Latin America.

India: Measured Optimism

The reaction in India to Trump's victory has been markedly subdued, though. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Trump on his victory in reflection of the close relationship between the two countries. India has emerged as a key strategic partner with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, where both are concerned over China's rising clout. Modi's government looks upon Trump's return as an opportunity to further ties with the U.S., especially on defense and trade.

But India remains circumspect. While anxious to deepen its alliance with the U.S., it has also to contend with the fallouts of Trump's policies on immigration, trade and regional security. It is in diplomatic balancing that India will therefore continue to play its role as an important actor in the new emerging world order.

Latin America: Mixed Bag of Reactions

In Latin America, the victory of Trump was received in a very different manner, especially by countries such as Argentina and Brazil, which showed themselves to be in his corner for his return to the White House. For his part, the right-wing populist President of Argentina, Javier Milei, publicly admired Trump. In Brazil, ex-president Jair Bolsonaro was the first to congratulate him for his victory and wished that his victory would raise his chances. In both countries, right-wing leaders saw Trump as an ally in their efforts to counter left-wing movements and consolidate their political bases.

Countries like Mexico and South Africa, on the other hand, are apprehensive that such policies by Trump will hurt their economies and, importantly, their politics. For Mexico, the challenges are graver, as threats of tariffs and a renegotiation of NAFTA stare at them in the face. The economic turmoil that could be triggered by an uncompromising stance relating to trade with the U.S. has pulled down the Mexican peso, hinting at unease in the region.

A Divided World Awaits Trump's Return

The international response to Trump's victory in 2024 is a reflection of the depth of the division in a world that is divided over how to engage with the United States. For some, Trump was a force of disruption that can pivot the balance of power in their favor, while for others, his return is disturbing in that it would mean the unscrambling of multilateral diplomacy and could actually deflect gains made on areas such as climate change or human rights. What is for sure, though, is that the re-election of Trump carries long-term implications for geopolitics from Sweden to Sri Lanka; many countries are now readjusting their strategies in relation to the many intricacies of a second Trump presidency.