Beyond Ukraine: Russia's Strategic Siege on Global Power

One thing has become certain: at the heart of this shifting geopolitical landscape sits Russia. 

The world might be looking at its actions vis-à-vis Ukraine, but Russia's ambitions are truly long-range in an effort to have a say in emerging powers, African nations, and the Global South. 

Thus, two different events-in one, the BRICS summit in Kazan; in the other, the continuous strategic involvement of Russia in such regions as Libya-have underlined Moscow's wider goals: challenging the current world order dominated by Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the dollar-based financial system.

From a regional perspective, this staunch support of Ukraine emanating from Lithuania simply illustrates that it knows what it is up against from Russia. For countries like Lithuania, which formed the outer rim of the Soviet Empire, the geo-politics of post-Soviet diplomacy was always going to be a difficult one; and if events in Europe are anything to go by, then Africa, the Middle East, and more recently BRICS present the same contradictions in Russian foreign policy: disrupt, expand, influence.

Russia's Global Disruption Strategy

The strategy of Russia under Vladimir Putin is one of disrupting the current world order, overextending its influence, and placing its position as a key actor within global geopolitics and energy markets. 

Probably the clearest manifestation of that strategy has been in Libya, where Russia has engaged with General Khalifa Haftar, the strongman leading the Libyan National Army-a militia network, renamed the LNA in 2015. Haftar's alliance with Russia reflects a wider trend of Russian involvement with fragile states, especially in Africa, where Moscow has been pouring mercenaries and weapons as a means to project its influence.

Libya, rich in natural resources and strategically placed near southern Europe, is a priority for Russia. The alliance with Haftar offers Russia the ability to threaten European energy security, control migration flows, and establish a foothold in the Mediterranean. The involvement in Libya is part of the general pattern of Russian involvement in African countries, where it exploits instability to undermine Western influence. It has leveraged its army of proxies and mercenaries to extend its reach to include Mali, Niger, and Sudan, allying itself with military juntas while breaking ties with Ukraine.

Events in Libya also provide a springboard for Russia's broader interests in Africa and the Middle East. In fact, Russian support for Haftar has extended to illicit activities ranging from fuel smuggling to counterfeiting of currency, suggesting that Moscow will stop at nothing in the pursuit of its interests. Control of Libya's NOC and key oil fields like El Sharara will enable Russia to be a pivotal player in the chain of Europe's energy supply, hence posit an leverage on European foreign policy to its advantage.

BRICS Summit: Economic Re-Alignment of Russia

On the economic front, a recent BRICS summit in Kazan offers an insight into Russia's larger strategy of challenging Western financial hegemony.

The BRICS group, initially formed with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as its members, has grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This expanded BRICS represents over 37% of global GDP and presents an almost ominous prospect of a rising economic bloc against such institutions as the G7 and NATO.

One of the key points that were brought up at the BRICS summit was an alternative financial system; it has been referred to as a "BRICS-Bridge." It would represent international transactions outside the orbit of the dollar, which, in turn, has allowed member states to sidestep Western sanctions.

To Russia, this is important because its many banks-most notably, Sberbank and VTB-have fallen under a ban of the Swift financial network as part of the sanctions imposed upon it because of its invasion of Ukraine.

While Russia has made some remarkable resilience in the face of such sanctions, its economy is strained. Inflation has shot past 9%, with the Russian ruble in free fall against the dollar. The Central Bank of Russia has moved to stabilize the currency, having raised interest rates to 19%, but the rouble's decline persists. While stronger, due to the increase in oil prices, the normally strong ruble has remained weak and further complicated Russian economic prospects.

The weak ruble is a double-edged sword for Moscow: though a weaker currency may make Russian exports more competitive in markets that are still willing to buy Russian goods, it drives inflation higher-especially as demand for imported goods within Russia remains strong. It is also making the costs of key public projects-most relying on imported goods-rise, further straining Russia's already over-stretched budget.

The BRICS Expansion: Strength or Weakness?

As much as the expansion of BRICS may be most welcome, it no doubt raises some questions regarding unity and coherence within the group. 

Its growth into an extended circle could compound the already high level of diversity within the bloc as it tries to formulate policies that are cohesive on various issues. There are already regional rivals such as China and India, which have interests that often clash. New entrants such as Saudi Arabia and Iran have traditionally been sworn enemies.

Despite such challenges, the expansion of BRICS is viewed by Russia as a key opportunity to establish an alternative economic order resilient to the West. 

The BRICS, in the opinion of Moscow, are about ensuring financial independence and deepening economic relations with the leading powers of the Global South. Vladimir Putin has spoken triumphantly about BRICS as a balancing force against Western-led institutions like NATO and the G7, and has made no secret of his efforts to use the group as a means of rewriting the rules for the global economy.

Yet, there are question marks as to whether an expanded BRICS could ever hope to attain such ambitions. As Stewart Patrick at the Carnegie Endowment says, the heterogeneity might undermine any effectiveness of the group: "In the absence of a coherent worldview or shared interests, the bloc is liable to fail in its efforts at speaking with one voice on most key issues." Furthermore, internal tensions within BRICS but most of all between China and India will further weaken the group's ability to act collectively.

BRICS: Geopolitical Consequences beyond Economic Ones 

That is not all, as the reason BRICS is expanding primarily carries huge geopolitical implications. 

Through BRICS, Russia seeks to forge alliances with nations that feel serious soreness of marginalization caused by the current global world. For countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia, BRICS offers a perfect avenue to challenge the dominance by Western powers and pursue their regional ambitions.

Meanwhile, Turkey's announcement of joining BRICS under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is indicative of a possible geopolitical realignment. Traditionally close to the West but leery of being kept out of the European Union, Turkey boasts the second-largest army in NATO. Erdoğan's presence at the BRICS summit is an indication that Turkey is hedging against other choices in diplomacy and probably seeking to align itself closer to emerging powers.

It was not all smooth, of course. But it isn't without its controversies either: most notably, Ukraine has criticized the presence of UN Secretary General António Guterres in this year's BRICS summit on the grounds that it legitimizes Putin's policies. Yet, even if a peace initiative could be advanced as a good reason, his presence underlines the tightrope balance that the UN has to maintain in handling global conflicts.

Energy Security and the Russian Threat

The involvement of Russia in BRICS, much like its involvement in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa, reflects a wider approach to undermining Western influence while securing control over resources. 

Energy security lies at the heart of this. By establishing control over energy-rich regions such as Libya, and through fostering ties with oil-producing nations in BRICS, Russia aims at the use of control over global energy markets as a lever of power over Europe and the West.

On its part, NATO cannot afford to be complacent. The cases of Russia in Ukraine are only one aspect of a wider geopolitical game. If NATO focuses on the case of Ukraine alone, it will fail to pay attention to Russia's ambitions elsewhere, especially in Africa and the Middle East. NATO needs to act as a team in trying to counter these new threats, making sure that Moscow's influence is not allowed to mushroom.

In sum, BRICS engagement by Russia, involvement in Africa, and larger geopolitical ambitions manifest a multi-dimensional challenge to world order. 

The building of alliances with emerging powers, the exploitation of instability in fragile states, and the quest to undermine Western financial hegemony place Russia as a central player in the reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape. 

It takes a lot from the West, especially NATO, to keep united and actively respond to all these challenges in order for it to dissuade Russian ambitions and preserve the existing world order.

(dpa, afp)