French Presidential Elections

These days (on the tenth of this month), the first round of the French presidential elections will take place, and with the decline of the left and its fragmentation, the competition is limited between President Macron, who represents the centrist currents, and between the parties of the right and the extreme right, through three main candidates who are, “Mary Le Pen is from the historically far-right National Rally Party, and Arc Zemmour is from the most extreme Redemption Party, which is building its election campaign against immigrants, especially Muslims coming from North Africa. Classified as a moderate or traditional right-winger, Berkreis says she wants to follow in the footsteps of former French President Jacques Chirac.

As is known, the presidential elections in France take place in two stages, unless one of the candidates wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round. Opinion polls indicate that the most prominent competitors are the current French President Emmanuel Macron and the far-right candidate Marie Le Pen, who is trying to appear this time as more moderate, with the aim of winning the votes of the Republicans and the traditional right. The same polls also indicate that President Macron is the most likely to win this election because he will reap the votes of the scattered left, as he is sure to get the votes of the Green Party, and the votes of the Socialists, as their party is going through a deep crisis.

If expectations are true, Macron and Le Pen will move to the second round (on the 24th of this month) and face each other for the second time. The two competed in the elections that took place in 2017, and Marie Le Pen received only 37% of the vote. As for the far-right, who does not hide his racism, "Erk Zemmour", his fortunes declined after the Ukraine war because he had previously declared his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zemmour believes in the conspiracy theory, and claims that “the immigrants will control France,” so he called his party the name “Restitution,” meaning that he wants to take France back and rid it of immigrants.

Undoubtedly, Macron has benefited from the war in Ukraine, as he has emerged as one of the diplomatic influencers in this crisis, as he has kept in touch with Russian President Putin with the aim of finding a negotiated way out of the crisis. He also benefited from the good economic growth indicators in France after a difficult economic phase in light of Corona pandemic. It is clear that the adventure of the youngest French president will continue, and that Macron will rule France for the next five years if there is no last minute surprise before the elections.

Once again, Macron shows that he is the most appropriate president for the transitional phase that France is going through on more than one level. Ukrainian crisis. France needs to strengthen itself economically, as it is competing for sixth place with India, and it is in third place in Europe after Germany and Britain. Hence, the challenges facing any new French president are great, and the last thing that can serve France at this stage is a president from the extreme right, especially like Eric Zemmour, who may ignite an internal fire in France, if he implements what he says in his electoral propaganda against immigrants. .

Undoubtedly, the war in Ukraine has had a great impact on the French elections, and is to a large extent rationalising the French voter, who saw the Ukrainian crisis as a threat to European security as a whole. Hence, President Macron's chances are the best.

In any case, what matters to us is that France maintain its stability and maintain a more balanced foreign policy.