China Opens to Three-Child Policy. Is It Too Late?

We all knew it would come. Still, it came as a surprise on the last day of May 2021.

It’s really fast.

The first one, “One Child Policy” stayed for 34 years (1980-2014). The second, “Two-child Policy”, 5 years (2015 -2020).

How long is this one’s life, “Three-child Policy”, before the government says “Okay, have kids as many as you want”?

Then the “Max-child Policy”? It will say, by law, you must have as many kids as you can. No more“you want”, but “you must”. It will come, be prepared. Because there are still places on this planet where the government is the law. I am not proud of it, nor surprised.

The fact is, the number of newborns in China in 2020 was 10million, 15% down from 2019. In 2016, the number was nearly 17 million. (I only have a basic account at statista.com. I can’t show you the charts here:))

35% drop in 5 years.

Needless to say, it’s a shoutout to Chinese millennials and Gen Zs. So you want more freedom and benefits? Here you go. Says the government.

How are they embracing this？

I had a quick check on Chinese social media.

“3C is coming. But I’m not ready for 1C.”

“I am already exhausted raising myself.”

“House, car, money, grocery, maternity, education, every single one could kill me. Don’t add another one, please.”

“I just want to lay flat myself. No energy at all for three children.”

“I can’t even afford a wedding.”

I have many friends and relatives in China whose lives are directly affected by this policy. In this essay, I will dive into the news and social media to better understand the people under this policy. Haven’t worked on an essay with so much research for a long time.

Okay, on to the news.

Neighbors are already shrinking

South Korea had 270k new babies in 2020, a new record low, whilst the number of deaths reached a new high, 308k. As result, it lost 38k of its population, the first time in its history.

The year of “population death cross”.

Japan is shrinking, too. 845k babies were born in 2020, 15k down from 2019. Meanwhile, the deaths were 1.38 million, 9.4k down from 2019. (Great! What the hell was Covid-19?) It lost more than half-million of its population in 2020. Apparently, birthrate did more harm than Covid.

Other neighbors are shrinking, too, if you want to look around.

What about the U.S.?

While we joke about a potential surge of babies born after the Covid lockdown in the U.S., the data shows, it didn’t happen, yet. 3.6 million were born in 2020, a 4% drop from 2019, the lowest since 1979.

In addition, the fertility rate also dropped 4% in 2020 to 55.8 (number of births per 1,000 women aging 15 to 44). The good news is that America is not shrinking, yet. The U.S. Census shows a measly 0.35% population growth in 2020, however, 16 states already saw decreases in population.

Not “Death Cross” yet but it’s the lowest yearly growth rate since the Great Depression.

The 2020 number should be better given that America had the largest number of Covid cases and deaths in the world, followed by immigration cutbacks. But as the report indicates, the nation is faced with increasing population challenges down the road, like aging, racial complications, and so on.

Photo by Joseph Chan on Unsplash

I stop searching and take a guess, it seems, this declining trend is hitting a lot of economically active countries. Is there a pattern here? I don’t know. I don’t want to search anymore.

But it’s not hard to get a clear message from the young generations in China.

They never had more money, more opportunities, and more lifestyles. But the mounting life pressure is wiping out most, if not all, of the joy. So their family plan is:

No marriage. No child.

Okay, let’s come back to China.

1. Will this work?

After over three decades of “One-child Policy”, China stepped down to “Two Child” in 2015. It got two years of elevated birth rates (number of births per 1000 population), 12,95, 12.43, in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Then it sharply fell to 10.9 in 2018, a new record low.

Research shows, the pops came from the families that had been planning on the long-overdue second babies. For most young families, millennials and Gen-Zs, they didn’t really change their children's plan.

Never been this unified: no kids.

Photo by Denys Nevozhai on Unsplash

2, Why?

Looking through the social media, I quickly pick up the following reasons.

1) It’s not a benefit

“It’s just a bit loose on the grip,” many online comments were wondering, “I don’t see the benefits.”

“They open the door bigger, but I don’t see flowers at the other side.”

“They would never show flowers. One day they will put a gun from behind and push you through the door.”

But they can’t go any further doubting the justice of the policy, at least in public, or the comments will be pulled down, they will be personally contacted by the authority.

Sheer contrast to its rapid expansion in the global economic arena, China has an iron-closed media system.

Needless to say, most birth-friendly policies in the world come with solid benefits. But for a country where the government literally owns everything, giving benefits is like a man giving away his pocket money. When he can give orders, why bother giving money?

I don’t want to make this essay a political writing so I stop right here. But it doesn’t change my point that this is the first reason why the policy won’t work out well.

2) The pressure of modern life.

Weibo, the Chinese version of Twitter, since launched a quiz asking the young generation:

Why you don’t want to have kids?

A lot of answers.

Material-related: House price, mortgage, cars, birthplace policy (what to know how regional discriminatory China is? Look at this.), low income, inflation, taxes.

None-materials: career, competition, bleak future.

Both long lists.

If you’ve got your second child after 2015, how are feeling now?

The top-ranked answer was one word: tired.

Wives tired of maternity, taking care of the kids. Husbands tired of trying to bring home more money.

Life seems to have suddenly got to a higher gear, which is already very high. They grasp for air.

The cities are gleaming with opportunities, quick money, higher social classes. Driven by dreams and goals, the youths beat one goal after another. Only the list never ends.

Now you tell them to have children?

No way.

3) Education

By 2019, a Chinese family spent about $28k or so per child from birth to junior high school. It May not sound crazy from a U.S. standpoint, until you hear China’s annual household income is $6.4k.

The rural areas are much cheaper. But the education quality goes down even more. Rural families are allowed to have more than two children after 2015. But once born the kids are spelled with low life caused by income inequity and poor education. To seek better life they flock to big cities, where they face skyrocketing living pressure and cost.

A paradox that no one would stop upon. As result kids become the victim. They are suspended indefinitely.

Photo by Jerry Wang on Unsplash

4) Millennials and Gen-Zs are not ready.

They are asking, “I am still a kid, how can I raise a kid?”

They are not ready, whether mentally or financially.

They could pose serious problems for kid’s growth. They can’t give kids love and care that they are supposed to have. Sometimes they even hurt kids. To raise more kids they have to work harder, leading to less time they can spend with kids.

All this will hide time bombs in kids’ growth and personality.

Tigger parenting, even spanking kids, used to be comment tactics among Chinese parents. Society has been working to dismantle this tradition. They tell parents that it does no good to kids’ growth, only shows how incompetent the parents are.

Instead, parents should give kids all the resources. Privat tutoring schools and supplement lessons have increasingly become a big part of the children's expenses.

5) A tremendous sacrifice by moms

Pregnancy is so hard, raising kids so hard, raising kids alone so hard.

They could lose career.

Then income.

Then independence.

Then life could be destroyed.

Even the reward is so high — being a mom is the best thing a woman could have, however, many of them wouldn’t be able to see it.

Photo by Simon Rae on Unsplash

Many moms try to get back to the job market after their kids grow up. But the discrimination and distrust are everywhere. Many HRs just throw away the CVs when they see the maternity leave.

For many moms, kids become a huge pain when the marriage goes wrong. Many choose to endure the bad marriage until the kids grow up.

Some don’t. In 2020, over 4.7 million couples officially separated, with women being the ones who proposed divorce in 74% of such cases.

They are followed by the fight for custody. When moms win, they become single moms. More hardship is waiting for them.

When they lose, the yearning for kids will haunt them for the rest of the life.

6) The waning of “filial piety”

“Filial piety” is one of the key traditions in China since the Confucian time (551 BCE). It requests the absolute attitude of obedience, devotion, and care toward parents and elders in the family. It’s built the center of ethical culture but today this pillar is collapsing. Hitting it is the pursuit of substance and personal joy among the young generations.

They claim that the old generation is using “filial piety” as leverage to exploit their labor and value. It’s pathetic when you can’t be responsible for yourself, but rather somebody else should be. Even they are your children.

Let alone a Chinese saying that goes, “No patient children in front of a long time patient.”

Plus, the pension and insurance systems have grown for two decades now. Traditions are giving way to economic means.

When they refuse to give care to their parents, they are ready to face that their kids will treat them the same.

Kids are not part of their retirement plan anymore. Being parents has lost a big incentive.

The elders would blame them for indifference, irresponsibility.

They would say, it’s a responsibility to our children. They won’t come to this world as an economic tool.

Conclusion

I am thrilled that I can finish this article by mostly sitting in front of the computer.

I did talk to my Chinese friends. They barely care or have any thoughts. In contrast, the online world leads me to an ocean of response and stories. Cynical and radical as they can sometimes be, I have been able to use these colors to paint a picture. And share it.

Most of these policies are trying to address the aging issue and lack of labor faced by the global population. Satchel Paige says,

|Age is a question of mind over matter. If you don’t mind, it does not matter.

Will this work out? Look at the previous two, and the six reasons I list above.

Is it too late? Better late than never.