Biological Agents Could Be Terrifyingly Effective Weapons of Modern War

In comparison to radiological, nuclear, conventional, and even chemical, biological agents have many significant advantages, all of which together make them potentially terrifyingly effective weapons of modern war. Below is a condensed list of some of the most important.

Biological agents leave enemy infrastructure intact

Of all the advantages of biological agents in warfare this is likely the most significant, though it is at least partly shared by chemical and radiological agents. Obviously conventional and nuclear attacks are often devastating to enemy infrastructure and intentionally so. While radiological attacks may not damage enemy infrastructure directly they can leave sections (perhaps hundreds of miles or more) of infrastructure unavailable for use for years or decades or longer due the ongoing risk of radiation poisoning. Chemical weapons are less likely to linger but large scale attacks can have unforeseen and often highly consequential environmental impacts that may severely impact your ability to occupy a given space post attack. Many times in war, particularly of the modern variety, it is desirable to leave enemy infrastructure intact for later occupation and use, or to destroy at your leisure with zero risk of attack. Unlike nuclear, radiological and chemical, biological agents give this possibility, and coupled with other advantages described below, allow for swift clearance and takeover of enemy territory and infrastructure with minimal risk to you or your allies with some important caveats that are expanded upon below.

Biological agents are relatively cheap, sometimes very cheap, to manufacture

While there is some cost in setting up and maintaining an active biological weapons program, once established such a program can manufacture biological agents as weapons at a very large scale for a very low price. In essence one could argue infective biological agents are "free" in that they replicate themselves once provided with the appropriate conditions to do so. Generally speaking this is a specific type of host cell or specific bacterial strain. In the case of biological toxins the bacteria or fungi that produce these toxins naturally can be used to manufacture them. Of course many of these agents are not so easy to weaponize and this takes money and know how, but less than you might think. The costs of developing and manufacturing genetically modified or engineered from the ground up biological agents will be highly variable depending on any number of factors. The terrifying possibilities are almost endless. To take just one example, it is easy to imagine that using a perversion of the techniques of reverse genetics, some governments around the world could have already prepared variants of SARS-CoV-2 for possible deployment as biological weapons, probably as a counterstrike should an enemy hit first with a biological attack. Whatever governments were prepared to do this would already have initiated vaccination programs of their own troops. These could easily be hidden among the many vaccinations military personnel around the world are required to receive as part of the conditions of their service. I have no knowledge (one way or the other) that such a thing has been considered or has taken place, but it is well within the realm of the possible. One of the advantages of this approach is that attribution to any one entity or even to people at all is very difficult given the pace of mutation and emergence of naturally occurring variants. Simply put, it is much easier to believe that any given variant arose naturally than to suggest or prove it was prepared by man and deployed as a weapon. Of course, part of the reason for a counterstrike is to indicate to the enemy that you will respond in kind to any attack. If the enemy does not know you have responded it loses much of its psychological if not actual impact.

No matter how expensive a biological weapons program may be, it will be nowhere near that of the costs associated with building up and maintaining a conventional or nuclear attack capability. Chemical weapons are also more expensive, and much more difficult and dangerous to manufacture on a large scale. Moreover the risks of environmental impacts from spills or other accidents raises the costs even higher. Radiological weapons also have potentially devastating environmental consequences and serious hazards associated with working with and deploying them for which simple protection like vaccination is not an option.

(In the case of infective agents and for some biological toxins) you and your allies can be selectively protected through programs of vaccination in advance of an attack

See example case above. This is particularly significant in the case of genetically modified or engineered agents. Whatever entity is developing these weapons can take their time to ensure an effective vaccine is developed, manufactured, and deployed prior to an attack. The enemy being attacked has no such luxury and vaccines to new or unknown biological agents can take months or years as we have all seen with the slow pace of development and deployment of Covid-19 vaccines. Obviously there are no vaccines against conventional, nuclear, chemical, or radiological attacks. In the case of chemical and radiological, troops can be protected to some extent through the appropriate use of personal protective equipment (PPE), however the required PPE is bulky, and failure prone, and greatly limits the effectiveness of any troops required to wear it into battle. The only protection from conventional and nuclear attacks is to stay out of killing zone at the time of attack and move in after to take over enemy ground. This ground will now be much less valuable than it was prior to such an attack as enemy infrastructure will be mostly reduced to rubble and ash.

Biological agents can have a limited or very long period of activity

Depending on the agent selected or through selection of specific traits for genetically modified infective agents, and in combination with how it is delivered, the time window during which the a biological agent will be effective (at making people sick and/or killing them) can, to a large extent, be controlled. Obviously, there will be a limit to this and loss of control will happen, but if your own troops are appropriately protected via vaccination in advance it will pose little risk to your own people. In contrast, nuclear and radiological attacks will always have long periods of activity, on the order of years, decades, or longer. Chemical weapons as well tend to linger, particularly in the environments where they are deployed having negative effects far into the future many of which cannot be predicted pre chemical attack.

Biological agents are very difficult to detect (invisible) and therefore sew fear and confusion and can spread widely very quickly

A very much underappreciated fact is that under ideal conditions (known agent, known area, known time frame) biological agent detection systems are not very to not at all effective. In a real world scenario of an unknown, potentially brand new agent, which could be delivered almost anywhere at any time, sensors and sensing systems will provide zero protection. Despite the millions (billions) of dollars thrown at the problem do not expect this to change anytime soon if ever. Because they are so difficult to detect they are essentially invisible and the psychological impact of this realization can be devastating to an enemy population. Throw on top of that the fact that the most effective biological weapons would be primarily transmitted through person to person contact (see below for other options). As we have seen with COVID-19 fear of infection, can be just as impactful as actual infection both psychological and economically. Conventional and nuclear attacks are obviously highly visible and again intentionally so. Radiological attacks may be invisible at first but once a given area is known to be contaminated it can be avoided and that area basically does not change. Chemical attacks are generally sensed by smell or other obvious physical changes (blisters, bleeding, etc.) almost immediately. Chemical agents, like radiological are not generally transmissible person to person like biological agents are.

Biological agents can be delivered in a variety of formats or combination of formats and these same formats can serve as vectors of further disease transmission (in the case of infective agents)

Air, food, water, animals (wild or domestic), inanimate objects (aka fomites) or surfaces could each or all serve as potential vectors for agent delivery and continued disease transmission once the initial attack has occurred. The possibilities are almost endless and only limited by the imagination. Some frightening and specifically targeted approaches come to mind. Want to emotionally scar the enemy but leave them mostly alive and healthy to deal with the traumatic aftermath, develop and deploy a biological agent that is transmitted by companion animals (cats/dogs) and would require the enemy to kill huge segments (or perhaps all) of its existing population of said animals to contain. Of course the risks of such a thing to your own companion animal population would be very high but again selective vaccination could be used and then large scale vaccination quickly deployed if needed, with appropriate advance planning. Formats for conventional attacks are limited to missiles and bombs and generally speaking things that explode. Nuclear weapons are a highly specific format of a missile or bomb. They can be tailored in strength and radiation levels etc. but remain basically a missile or bomb. Radiological agents have more flexibility in terms of delivery options but the way they are delivered has no bearing on the reach of the radiation post release. Chemical agents are almost always released into the air although water and food are also possible though generally less effective.

Biological agents can be used to devastate enemy agriculture (specifically targeted plants and/or farm animals) in addition to people

It is not just people than can be attacked with biological weapons. Enemy agriculture both plants and animals are potential targets. This approach carries a very high risk but with selective vaccination could largely be mitigated. The economic impacts of an attack of this nature would be severe. Neither conventional, nuclear, radiological nor chemical weapons have this ability to be specifically targeted to agriculture.