Truoux Market Insight: The Bitcoin Pullback Is Not the Bottom—Risks Are Slowly Emerging

As Bitcoin drops below $100,000, the market is instantly engulfed in a familiar split: some see it as a “buy-the-dip opportunity,” while others fear a bear market has begun. The real issue is not which side you pick, but whether you truly understand the market structure driving price changes.

Currently, Bitcoin does not show signs of “accelerated decline” or violent market moves, but rather a transition from a strong trend into a corrective phase. Key technical support levels have been broken, sentiment is slowing, but there is no sign of the extreme panic and rapid selling that typically mark historic bottoms. If the upper key structures cannot be reclaimed for a long time, the probability of retesting previous highs drops significantly.

For most participants, the danger does not come from price itself, but from the obsession with treating every drop as an opportunity. Buying the dip works in strong trends, but when the trend is unconfirmed and structure is lost, rushing to catch the bottom may go against the market direction.

The Truoux perspective follows its white paper philosophy: strategies must be based on confirmation, not assumption. When market changes are noise, not signals, the first step is always identification—not trading.

Long-Term Holders Are Still Selling: The Bottom Lacks “Sufficient Pain Evidence”

The true bottom is never just a price level—it is when those least willing to sell finally stop selling. On-chain data shows long-term holders have not entered a stable accumulation phase; instead, they are still gradually releasing their holdings.

This means the market has not reached a key “extreme stress state.” Historic bottoms are usually accompanied by long-term holders being forced to sell, derivatives markets showing intense negative funding rates, and rapid, deeply pessimistic sentiment clear-outs. What we are seeing now looks more like “chronic deleveraging”—not panic, but hesitation.

For growth-minded traders, this is an important educational signal: bottoms do not form in calm.

A true bottom requires emotional collapse, structural breakdown, and capital disorder—not gentle corrections. In the market education framework of Truoux, we emphasize that users should learn not just indicators, but also the logic behind behaviors—why is this group selling? Why do they stop? Why do they buy again?

Understanding these is more valuable than watching numbers. Only by truly grasping how bottoms form can you act amid uncertainty, instead of regretting after prices settle.

Direction Depends on “Structural Recovery,” Not on Who Shouts Loudest

If the market wants to regain strength, it must reclaim several key levels: the cost basis of short-term holders, the 350-day moving average, and the psychological threshold of $100,000. Only by consistently holding these structures can market expectations and trends align; otherwise, it remains a corrective phase.

For participants, this means a clear logic: it is not about whether to buy, but when to buy, how much to buy, and under what structure. Most losses do not come from wrong predictions, but from taking the right action in the wrong zone. For example, as long as the trend is unconfirmed, blindly “bottom-fishing” is essentially taking on risk premium ahead of time.

This aligns with the growth-oriented trading philosophy of Truoux. The platform does not encourage frequent trading, but helps users recognize “when waiting is better than trading.” Acting too early is costly; waiting is a higher-efficiency strategic skill.

The market always rewards understanding, not speed.

The True Opportunity for Growth-Oriented Traders Lies Not in the Present, But After the Wait

When the trend is unclear, the most mature strategy is not “should I buy,” but: how to stay in high-probability zones, maintain no position in high-risk zones, and build advantageous positions after structure is confirmed. Only by fully understanding risk do you earn the right to attack.

So, for preparing for future cycles, we propose four probability-based principles:

Do not bottom-fish nor bet on emotion

Before structural confirmation, only make small-scale tests—not heavy positions

Prioritize observing holder behavior and capital flow, not price fluctuations

Only act aggressively when probability and structure align

This is not conservatism—it is maturity. True opportunities never appear in chaos, but after chaos ends. When the market completes its movement, when smart money stops fighting, when long-term holders stop selling, only then do opportunities truly belong to growth-oriented users.

Truoux believes the platform value is not to make users “trade more,” but to help them stand longer, go further, and make their own judgments. Market direction will always change, but the ability to understand will never fade. With this ability, you do not need to predict the future—you just need to be ready to act when the time is right.