Bitcoin Under Fire Again

Bitcoin has entered September with a wave of warning signals: a 6.5% drop in the opening days, massive movements from long-dormant wallets, and the first ETF outflows in months. The price is hovering around $108K–109K, and while the chart looks deceptively calm, the underlying market dynamics are heating up and could define the cryptocurrency’s path in the weeks ahead.

📉 One of the most striking signals is the “Death Cross” in the MVRV index (Market Value to Realized Value). This metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the realized value of coins on-chain. When the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average, it often foreshadows a cycle top turning into a bearish phase. The last time we saw this was in 2021 — right before BTC collapsed from $69K to $15K. Now the warning light is flashing again, and investors are asking: is this another turning point?

💰 Not all the data is grim. The MVRV Z-Score is sitting near 2, far below the overheated levels of 7–9 historically seen at market peaks. That means Bitcoin may still have room to grow before true froth sets in. Many long-term holders remain confident, continuing to accumulate. But the start of September saw a massive shake-up: long-term wallets, holding BTC for over five years, suddenly moved around 97,000 coins. This sell-off sparked the initial 6.5% decline and reminded everyone how quickly supply shocks can rattle the market.

📊 On the institutional front, the picture is mixed. After steady inflows all summer, Bitcoin ETFs posted their first outflows since June — about $126.7 million exited last week. That may not sound catastrophic, but it’s the first crack in the armor of institutional confidence. Analysts have even dubbed this month “Rektember,” warning that it could mark the return of heavy liquidations and a painful correction phase.

⚖️ Technically, all eyes are on key levels. Immediate support lies at $105K. If that level holds, Bitcoin has room to bounce back toward $113K–114K. But if it breaks down, the door opens to $100K and even $95K in a deeper correction. Indicators like RSI and MACD remain neutral, but the balance is tilting toward sellers.

History doesn’t help the bulls either. September has long been a weak month for Bitcoin — on average, the asset loses about 6% during this period. Traders recall 2019 and 2022, when sharp sell-offs in September set the tone for the months that followed. While today’s market is larger and more institutionalized, psychology remains the same: the crowd expects red candles.

And yet, as always in crypto, sentiment can flip in days. If $105K holds and institutional demand returns, BTC could rebound sharply, pushing back above $115K. But the bearish case — a slide to $90K — is still on the table if ETF outflows and old-wallet selling continue.

📌 For the everyday investor, the key is patience and composure. Volatility in September often flushes out weak hands, leaving disciplined accumulators stronger in the long run. Those who panic-sell risk locking in losses, while those who endure could be rewarded when the market stabilizes.

🔥 Bitcoin is standing at a crossroads: either we’re witnessing a textbook correction before the next leg up, or the early stages of a longer bearish stretch. There’s no definitive answer yet, and that’s what makes this moment so important. What’s clear is that the coming weeks will be decisive — and whatever happens, September 2025 will be remembered as a turning point in Bitcoin’s story.