The Pre-Mortem: Thinking Ahead to Prevent Disaster

Have you ever gotten home only to realize you’ve locked yourself out? Or maybe you’ve been to the doctor and gotten a prescription for a medication, but haven't thought to ask about the side effects? These are frustrating situations, but more importantly, they can be avoided with a little forethought. In this blog post, we’ll explore the concept of the pre-mortem, a technique for identifying potential problems before they occur and taking steps to mitigate them.

The Power of Prospective Hindsight

The pre-mortem, also known as prospective hindsight, is a concept introduced by Nobel laureate Danny Kahneman and psychologist Gary Klein. It’s essentially the opposite of a post-mortem, which is an analysis of what went wrong after an event has already happened. The pre-mortem, on the other hand, is a proactive approach that involves imagining all the things that could go wrong in a particular situation and then taking steps to prevent them.

Why We Need the Pre-Mortem

When we are under stress, our brains act like superheroes, releasing cortisol to give us a boost of attention and alertness. Excellent for escaping a bear, but not so good for negotiating difficult problems. Cortisol impairs our judgment, making us less inclined to evaluate all possibilities and more prone to making snap decisions. Consider a doctor's appointment: medical language and options swirl, and cortisol inhibits your capacity to absorb information and ask key questions. The pre-mortem serves as a buffer against this cognitive fog. By thinking about probable problems and solutions ahead of time, we effectively pre-wire our brains to make better decisions under pressure. It's like rehearsing our responses in a calm condition, establishing a mental map to help us navigate the stress. Through the pre-mortem, we exchange the impulse for a plan, making us better equipped to handle whatever life throws our way.

The Pre-Mortem in Action

The pre-mortem can be applied to a wide range of situations, from everyday life to critical medical decisions. Here are a few examples:

Around the Home: We all misplace things from time to time. To prevent this, designate specific spots for commonly lost items like keys, wallets, and passports. This simple strategy can save you a lot of time and frustration.

Travel: Losing your passport or important documents while traveling can be a major hassle. To mitigate this risk, take a picture of your passport and other important documents and email them to yourself as a backup.

Medical Decisions: When faced with a medical decision, it’s important to ask your doctor about the “number needed to treat” (NNT) for a particular medication or procedure. The NNT is the number of people who need to take a medication or undergo a procedure before one person benefits. This information can help you weigh the risks and benefits of treatment options.

The Pre-Mortem: A Tool for a Better Life

By taking the time to think through potential problems in advance, we can make better decisions, avoid costly mistakes, and reduce stress in our lives. The pre-mortem is a valuable tool that can be applied to a wide range of situations. So next time you’re faced with a challenge, take a moment to consider what could go wrong and what you can do to prevent it. By taking a proactive approach, you can set yourself up for success.

Key Takeaways

The pre-mortem is a thinking tool that helps us identify potential problems before they occur. Our brains are not good at making decisions under stress. The pre-mortem can be applied to many situations, from everyday life to medical decisions. By taking the time to think through potential problems in advance, we can make better decisions and avoid costly mistakes.

I hope this blog post has given you a better understanding of the pre-mortem and how it can be used to improve your life. By taking a proactive approach to problem-solving, you can create a more resilient and successful future for yourself.