The Evolving World Order:

Introduction

I have a big question. Which is, who runs the world? It used to be an easy question to answer. If you're over 45 like me, you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants. The United States called the shots on one side of the Wall, the Soviets set the rules on the other. And that was a bipolar world. It's very simple. If you're under 45, you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed, and that left the United States as the sole superpower, dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power. And that was a unipolar world. And then about 15 years ago, things got a little more complicated.

The Shift in Global Power

The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman or the architect of global trade or even the cheerleader for global values. Other countries were becoming more powerful, and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like, sometimes even setting new rules themselves. What happened? Three things.

1. Russia's Decline and Discontent

Number one, Russia was not integrated into Western institutions. A former great power now in very serious decline and they are angry about it. We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are.

2. China's Rise and Identity

Number two, China was integrated into US-led institutions on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful, they would become Americans. Turns out, they're still Chinese. And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that.

3. Globalization and Its Discontents

Number three, tens of millions of citizens in the United States and other wealthy democracies felt left behind by globalization. This has been ignored for decades. But as a consequence, they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate. Now if you look at all the headlines in the world today, driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict, over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons. And that's why today we live in a leaderless world. But as we know, that's not going to be with us for long.

The Future of the World Order

So what comes next? What kind of a world order might we expect over the next ten years? Some of what I might say I think will surprise you. Because we're not going to have a bipolar or a unipolar or even a multipolar world. If we don't have one or two superpowers, we don't have a single global order. No, instead, we will have three different orders, a little overlapping, and the third will have immense importance for how we live, what we think, what we want, and what we're prepared to do to get it. But first things first.

1. The Global Security Order

Today, we have a global security order. And as you see from the map, the United States and its allies are the most powerful players on it. The US is the only country in the world that can send its soldiers and its sailors and its military equipment to every corner of that world. No one else is close. China is growing in its military capabilities in Asia, though nowhere else. Lots of American allies in Asia are concerned about that. And as a consequence, they're becoming more dependent on the United States for a security umbrella. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned and dependent on the United States and a US-led NATO. The Russian military, of course, has been a greater global concern, much less so today, especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops and all of that equipment and with sanctions making it extremely hard for them to rebuild. Now, Russia and China and others have nuclear weapons, but thank God it is still suicide to use them. And as a consequence, our security order is a unipolar order and it is likely to remain so for the next decade.

2. The Global Economic Order

At the same time that there's a security order, there's also a global economic order. And here, power is shared. The United States is still a very robust global economy. But the US can't use its dominant position militarily to tell other countries what to do economically. The United States and China are enormously economically interdependent and so they can't control each other. Other countries in the world, a lot of them want access to US military muscle, but they also want access to the Chinese market, soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world. And you can't very well have a cold war if the US and the Chinese are the only two that are prepared to fight it. The European Union has the largest common market and they set the rules. And if you want to do profitable business there, you listen to those rules. India is playing a greater role economically on the global stage. Japan still matters, too. And over the next ten years, there will be a rise and fall of the relative capacities of these economies. But the global economic order is and will remain a multipolar order.

3. The Digital Order

Between these two orders are tensions because the United States will use its power in national security to try to bring more of the world's economies towards it. The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position to align more of the world diplomatically. And Japan and Europe and India and everyone else will do their damnedest to ensure that neither of these two orders dominate the other. And they will mostly succeed. Now, so far I have spoken with you about the two world orders we already see, but there's a third that is coming soon that's even more important. And that is the digital order. And the digital order is not run by governments but by technology companies.

The Rise of Technology Companies

We all know how much military support NATO countries have provided Ukraine during the war. But it's technology companies that provided the tools allowing Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attack. It's technology companies that gave the Ukrainian leaders the ability to speak with their generals and their soldiers on the front lines. If it wasn't for those technology companies, Ukraine would have been fully offline within weeks of the war. Technology companies determine whether political leaders are able to communicate with the masses without intermediaries. They shape our identities and influence our thoughts. They hold tremendous power in the modern world.

The Choices We Face

As technology companies continue to expand their influence, we must ask ourselves important questions. Are they going to act accountably as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence? What are they going to do with the unprecedented amount of data they are collecting on us and our environment? Will they persist with advertising models that drive revenues but also fuel hate and misinformation, tearing apart our society?

Conclusion

In a rapidly changing world, the balance of power is shifting. The traditional notions of a unipolar or multipolar world are giving way to a more complex reality. The global security order, the global economic order, and the digital order are shaping the future of our world. It is up to us to ensure that these orders coexist harmoniously and that technology companies wield their power responsibly.

In the coming years, we will witness the rise of new players and the reconfiguration of global dynamics. It is a time of uncertainty, but also one of opportunity. By understanding these orders and the choices we face, we can navigate the challenges ahead and work towards a more inclusive and sustainable future.