The Changing World Order.

The current climate of international politics envisages a change in the global order. Increasing hostility among states and the proliferation of arms and conflict are clear signs of instability in the international order. Scholars of international relations had theorized that in every 80-100 years the global order goes through a change, where one global power falls and another one rises. World War II resulted in the fall of the British Empire, an imperialistic hegemon of its age, and the rise of USA as the global hegemon. Almost 80 years have passed since the war and the world seems on the brink of change once again.

The indications of the changing world order are vividly apparent. Not even 20 years back, the USA was a power nobody dared to question. Developing as well as developed countries ardently sought to rub shoulders with the United States. Today however, it seems that the US is gradually being isolated, or at least not as eagerly supported as it was before. Long time allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are shifting their diplomatic priorities elsewhere. On the other hand, long time enemies like Iran have found solace and increasing support in the eastern bloc. Europe, America’s brother-in-arms, seems divided on whether to support the US or its rivals.

All these changes stem from two factors: the rise of the eastern bloc and the mistakes of America. With the Putinization of Russia and China’s economic expansion through the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), the east progresses towards the overthrow of western supremacy of the global order at a rapid pace. Vladimir Putin’s despotic nature and aggressive policies have undermined USA’s hegemonic status. On the other hand, China’s ballooning economic growth coupled with the shift in the nature of the global order from geopolitics to geoeconomics in the 21st century has made China a strong contender for the global leader spot. As for America’s mistakes, its role in various proxy wars and meddling in the internal affairs of other states has severely tarnished its image. On top of that, USA’s faulty economic policy, evident from its huge debt, can potentially prove to be the final nail in its coffin.

Claiming that the “world is changing” is admittedly quite a bold assertion. However, if one was to refer to the literature of International Relations, this assertion seems like an obvious statement. The following are some concepts of IR that support the claim of the changing world order:

1. Thucydides’ Trap.

The Thucydides’ Trap is a concept given by the Greek historian Thucydides which states that whenever the global society is faced with a scenario where there is a declining superpower power and an emerging one, it is inevitable that the two would go to war. The world has experienced this scenario 14 times in history. 12 out 14 times Thucydides’ prediction was proven to be true. Today, the world experiences a declining USA up against an emerging China. Although the prospect of all out war seems unlikely, but the rising tensions evident from the US-China economic warfare, Taiwan issue and skirmishes in the South China Sea point to a bleaker future. In any case, Thucydides’ prediction of conflict between the two powers leaves a possibility of change in the global order.

2. Transformation of Globalization.

On the issue of whether or not the world is moving towards de-globalization, a school of thought exists in the IR discipline that believes that the world is not in fact de-globalizing, rather it is going through a transformative or an evolutionary phase. Transformists believe that the center of globalization is shifting from the West to the East. Since the start of globalization, the West has been its torchbearer with their technology, economic opportunities, political leadership, propagation of culture etc. However, the 21st century has witnessed the East gradually enveloping all the engines that power globalization i.e., trade, technology, cultural propagation, political domination etc. This clearly is an indication that the world order is changing.

3. Rise of Realism.

In the 20th century the world was overtaken by the liberalist order where norms like cooperative politics, human rights, free-trade and internationalism were made to define the international society. This was largely propagated and implemented by the West through making organizations such as the United Nations Organization, World Trade Organization etc. Being the proponents of the liberal order made the West, in general, and the US, specifically, the natural leaders of the world. However, the 21st century brought with itself a shift from liberal values. Leaders like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Muhammad bin Salman, Narendra Modi and even USA’s own Donald Trump rubbished liberal norms in their policy making and took a more realist approach. The approaches of these leaders are clearly based on concepts like power politics, state-controlled economy, aggressive diplomacy and nationalism. This can also be seen as not only a shift in the nature of international relations but also the dethroning of the West from the position of implicitly controlling the international system.

To conclude, the world is in a state of instability brought on by the shift in the global order. This notion is not merely a myth as the literature of IR validates it. The only hope one can have at this point is for it to be a peaceful transition.