The 2026 Oscars: Who Is Likely to Win This Year?

Awards season is heating up as the nominees for the 98th Academy Awards have been announced, and speculation about who will take home the Oscars is already dominating the conversation. While critics and film insiders offer their own predictions each year, something new has entered the mix: prediction markets.

Platforms like Kalshi, where participants trade contracts based on real-world outcomes, offer a unique look at public expectations. These markets reflect where people are literally placing their money on who they believe will win. Combined with expert predictions from major film publications, they provide a fascinating snapshot of the race before the Academy votes are revealed.

Here’s a look at the biggest categories and who is currently expected to win.

Best Picture

Nominees:

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

The Best Picture race is one of the most competitive categories this year. Two films in particular have dominated the conversation: One Battle After Another and Sinners.

According to Kalshi prediction markets, One Battle After Another currently holds the strongest odds of winning Best Picture, with public forecasts giving it roughly a 70–80% chance of victory. The film has also performed well in early critics’ awards and festival buzz, making it the current frontrunner.

However, Sinners is still considered a serious challenger. The film earned 16 Oscar nominations, the most of any film this year, which could signal strong support from Academy voters.

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Actor

Nominees:

• Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
• Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
• Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
• Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent

The Best Actor race appears to be one of the closest categories this year.

Prediction markets currently show Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet as the two leading contenders. On Kalshi, Jordan has held a slight lead at times, though the race remains tight between the two actors.

Film critics, however, are increasingly leaning toward Timothée Chalamet for his performance in Marty Supreme, which has been widely praised as one of the most transformative roles of his career.

Prediction: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Best Actress

Nominees:

• Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
• Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone — Bugonia
• Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue

Among all the acting categories, Best Actress appears to be the least competitive this year.

Both expert predictions and Kalshi’s public forecast strongly favor Jessie Buckley for her performance in Hamnet. Prediction markets currently give her an overwhelming advantage, with odds that place her far ahead of the other nominees.

Buckley’s performance has been praised for its emotional depth and complexity, making her the clear frontrunner in the category.

Prediction: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo — Sinners
• Benicio del Toro — The Secret Agent
• Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value

In the Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn has emerged as the likely winner according to prediction markets.

Kalshi forecasts have placed Penn well ahead of the other nominees, suggesting strong public confidence in his performance in One Battle After Another. Some critics have also praised his role as one of the film’s standout elements.

Prediction: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan — Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners
• Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another

This category is one of the hardest to predict.

Prediction markets currently show Amy Madigan with a slight lead, but the race remains competitive. Some industry experts believe Teyana Taylor could still pull off an upset depending on how the final voting trends.

Prediction: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Best Director

Directing awards often closely track Best Picture momentum, which is why Paul Thomas Anderson has become the favorite for his work on One Battle After Another.

Kalshi prediction markets give Anderson extremely strong odds of winning, reflecting both industry respect for his work and the film’s overall strength this awards season.

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

The Biggest Oscar Storylines This Year

Several themes are shaping the 2026 Oscars race.

First, Sinners made history with 16 nominations, making it the most nominated film of the year. Its strong showing across categories could still shift the outcome in several races.

Second, One Battle After Another has become the season’s dominant contender, leading prediction markets and earning widespread critical acclaim.

Finally, the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi is changing how people follow awards season. Instead of relying solely on critics or pundits, audiences can now see where public expectations—and real money—are flowing.

Final Oscar Predictions

Based on expert analysis and current prediction market odds, the most likely winners appear to be:

• Best Picture: One Battle After Another
• Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
• Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet
• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley
• Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn
• Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan

Of course, the Oscars are famous for surprises. Even the strongest frontrunners can lose if Academy voters decide to rally behind a different performance or film.

Until the envelopes are opened on Oscar night, the race remains unpredictable—and that’s part of what makes awards season so exciting.