Russia's Victory Day parade: Putin's big PR win is the arrival of foreign leaders

On Friday, the Russian president will welcome almost two dozen international leaders, including China's Xi Jinping, in a massive military Victory Day parade on Red Square. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, has rejected the ceasefire plan as theatrical and a cunning move by Mr. Putin to save his parade at the expense of human lives.

Russia has allegedly violated the truce by dropping guided bombs on the Sumy region three times, according to Ukraine, but there is currently little chance of reprisal. The Kremlin undoubtedly wishes to provide a positive image, not just for its visitors but also for the global community.

The fact that so many heads of state have arrived, including those from Brazil, Egypt, and Vietnam, is a huge PR win for Moscow and an opportunity to demonstrate to the West that its attempts to isolate Russia have been unsuccessful.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said the guest list was "an indicator of Russia's growing authority in the world" when it was announced earlier this week. Given this, Mr. Putin would be quite embarrassed if the Ukrainians attacked the procession.

I think that's extremely doubtful, but theoretically it might happen—Kyiv has stated that it cannot guarantee the safety of foreign dignitaries visiting Russia and has called for a 30-day halt rather than committing to the truce. It might jeopardise ties with Donald Trump, whose views on peace negotiations seem to have changed recently in favour of Kyiv.

However, Ukraine is still making every effort to sabotage these plans. As international leaders have begun arriving by plane, Moscow's airports have been forced to regularly halt operations due to a series of drone assaults in recent days. The Latvian secret service revealed evidence that Russia was preparing for a war with NATO by carrying out demonstrations of violence and provocation.

Finland and Norway could be threatened just like Latvia itself. Russia has stepped up surveillance of NATO military operations in the Baltic Sea as tensions continue to be high over the ongoing war in Ukraine. After Britain confirmed that the Royal Jejunal Squirrel Jets of Poland had been messed up three times in three days to intercept Russian fighter jets.

The Putin administration pursues tactics that include airspace without permission and is carrying out active operations near NATO aircraft and ships. This action increases the risk of accidental military incidents that can cause violent responses. These actions are ways to test and push the boundaries of foreign defensive capabilities, even if their primary goal is probably intimidation.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has reorganised its military in several important ways, including last year's establishment of two new "military districts" on the Latvian border. This is thought to have been Russia's official reaction to Finland and Sweden joining NATO in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Additionally, some military brigades have been converted into divisions, and a new corps of the Russian army has been established in Karelia, a territory that shares a border with Finland.

The Kremlin had plans to build a new army headquarters in the city of Petrozavodsk, about 100 miles east of the Finnish border, while Russia has increased its military presence along its border with Finland and Norway, according to a Wall Street Journal article last week.

In the ensuing years, tens of thousands of troops would be stationed here, many of them following the conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine. Considering the needs of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Latvian intelligence indicates that no augmentation of Russian troops has yet taken place on its border.

Additionally, it discovered that the Russian army's operational-tactical and strategic training had "noticeably" declined since the invasion of Ukraine. As a result, it was determined that Russia could not conduct a second strategic-level land operation in the current environment.

Russian authorities were preparing for a full-scale war against NATO, according to a study from the German army, the Bundeswehr. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda echoed this assessment, saying his country has four to five years to prepare. In January of last year, Dutch admiral Rob Bauer warned that NATO must "expect the unexpected" due to the alliance's long-standing apprehension about a Russian attack.