Neoconservatism Rising:

As observed on January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump returned to the White House, bringing a fresh perspective to the world's main events and trends, quite different from when he left in 2019. This article will analyze the key changes likely to occur under the new administration of the "beacon" of the world and its influence on the rising conservatism in Europe. Will Trump accelerate the seemingly inevitable rise of conservative movements to power? Let’s delve in!

First, it is essential to highlight a less obvious but pivotal aspect of Trump's policy framework: his political ideology. When we delve into ideology, it’s about conservatism versus progressivism. It is well-documented among political theorists and analysts that Trump restructured the Conservative Party, bridging internal divides and crafting a sort of "neoconservatism" reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s strategies, such as "peace through strength." This ideological pillar will shape Trump’s approach to international relations, especially with the European Union and the United Kingdom (now under a progressive government), which can be described as confrontational. Fundamentally, one could argue that Trump's actions, relations, and discussions will be ideologically driven, potentially boosting the fledgling but noisy conservative resurgence in Europe. Consequently, it is expected that the American billionaire will establish stringent relations with European administrations, particularly those with opposing ideological perspectives. These relationships will likely be rigid across all aspects, from increasing GDP spending on military equipment to economic and trade relations.

On the other hand, Trump cannot ignore these longstanding allies as he recognizes that the U.S. alone cannot withstand tensions with China, Russia, and other adversaries. Nevertheless, significant economic and diplomatic pressure will likely be applied to European nations to align with American demands. Actions such as Trump’s planned withdrawal of 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe or the UK's rare refusal to accept the U.S.’ suggestion to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America underscore these comments.

If you live or conduct business in Europe or follow news about the continent, you have likely noticed a narrative of concern, apprehension, and condemnation regarding the resurgence of conservative and nationalist movements opposing multiculturalism and progressive agendas. These movements are often labeled as far-right, though it would be more accurate to call them conservative, as the struggle is more about theoretical politics than entirely opposing ideologies. It’s worth noting that certain governments comprise both socialists and social democrats, which would include the moderate right and are key proponents of the aforementioned agenda. This may seem paradoxical but will be explored in greater depth in another article.

To clarify, let’s distinguish conservatives from moderates. In the political spectrum referred to as the right, there is the “moderate right,” which has alternated power with the moderate left since post-war Europe and the reconstruction period. Then there is the “extreme right,” representing the more conservative wing. The conservative faction in Europe includes relatively new parties, as the trauma of conservatism from World War II persists. However, it must be reiterated that these conservative parties or movements are fundamentally different from the totalitarian movements that ravaged Europe in the 20th century. The ideologies are starkly distinct, history is linear, not cyclical, and we are dealing with systems equipped with more complex and developed checks and balances.

The crisis of ideals in Europe stems from the action-reaction dynamic between the status quo and conservative movements. This crisis seems unprofitable for businesses or investors, as it brings political and economic instability, with public policies shifting rapidly, countering economic liberalism or business creation incentives. This is particularly concerning in a continent known for its stability over recent decades. The failed and embarrassing policies addressing Europe’s longstanding problems, such as low birth rates and the absence of effective public policy solutions to issues that have emerged over the last decade during moderate governance, have led to the collapse of a civilized and functional society. These dynamics have rendered Europe’s situation untenable. This lack of balance has fueled the resurgence of patriotic and conservative ideals. Media coverage obscuring these issues has only accelerated this conservative ascension, enabling some parties to win regional elections in certain countries, while others are closer to power than ever, despite being young parties. This scenario has been further amplified by Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House, or at least the increased fear of such a scenario being reinforced by his comeback. Thus, it would not be surprising to see conservative movements rising to power or at least gaining strength in the upcoming elections. Similarly, it would not be unexpected to see the U.S. engaging more intensely with less conventional historical allies like Hungary, Poland, and Italy instead of Germany, the United Kingdom, and France, as the former are governed by conservative parties.

Practically speaking, who are the “faces” of European conservatism with whom Trump is likely to engage? Among them are Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy; Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s leader and a frequent target of European Union criticism; and Marine Le Pen, the main opposition leader in France who won the first round of the French elections. Other rising conservative groups are scattered across Europe, such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which has won local elections in some German regions, or Portugal’s Chega Party, which came third in legislative elections and forced the moderate-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) to negotiate with the Socialist Party.

These movements and parties in Europe share interests similar to those Donald Trump promised during his electoral campaign. These include strict immigration control, the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, the defense of traditional values, and national sovereignty over supranational policies, such as those of the European Union and international agreements.

Based on everything discussed, I believe that the relationship between the United States and the major European nations will be turbulent. This relationship will blend diplomacy—as isolationism is not a viable option for either side—with tensions stemming from opposing political and ideological stances and diverging agendas. I foresee this ideological divide as a critical foundation of the interaction between these old allies, as previously mentioned. On the other hand, diplomacy and dialogue will persist, with Trump prioritizing America’s interests but avoiding isolationism, as in his previous term, due to a different global landscape. The anti-Western bloc, led by China, Russia, Iran, and other BRICS members, is more aligned and has clearer objectives, making isolationism unfeasible and compelling the West to communicate and support each other.

These factors create a balance in the geopolitical landscape among Western nations, fostering collaboration against clearer adversaries. However, they also introduce internal instability within the Western bloc due to political-ideological misalignment and divergent agendas among key nations, signaling disunity to the world. Finally, I see Trump as a pivotal figure in the political, commercial, and economic restructuring of the U.S. and its global geopolitical power. This will provoke much apprehension but may also encourage economic liberalism to some extent. Furthermore, I perceive Donald Trump as a crucial and influential player in elevating the prominence and influence of conservative movements and parties in Europe in their pursuit of power and leadership.