Historian Predicts How Russia's War in Ukraine Will End

As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, the conflict remains in an uncertain place for both parties. The ongoing conflict has brought devastation and loss, leaving people wondering how and when it will come to an end. Russia's President Vladimir Putin continues to create propaganda for his domestic audience, boasting that victory is imminent, while Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy keeps the country's faith alive, vowing to reclaim every inch of lost territory. The war has seen shifts in tactics and territorial control, with both sides heavily relying on support from their allies. Historian Hein Goemans, an expert in war and territorial disputes, discussed the possible end points of the war and the challenges in reaching a resolution on CNN.

The Unlikely Russian Victory

At the war's outset, a Russian victory seemed plausible, with a massive advance towards Kyiv almost capturing the capital. However, Ukraine's risky move of flooding Russian pontoon bridges and NATO's swift support shifted the tide in Ukraine's favor. While Russia has attempted surges, it lacks the resources to overrun Ukraine. To achieve a total victory, Russia would need allies, with China being a critical factor. However, China's reluctance to supply lethal aid stems from concerns about potential sanctions and backing a losing side.

The Difficult Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Despite the odds stacked against Ukraine at the war's beginning, the country has managed to push back Russian forces and retake some territory with strong NATO support. However, the path to complete victory is challenging. The West has been hesitant to provide certain types of military aid to prevent escalation. Crimea remains a sensitive issue, and any attempt to reclaim it could lead to a larger conflict, given Putin's reluctance to negotiate.

The Possibility of Negotiations

Calls for negotiations have arisen from various corners, but the issue of Crimea and the intractable demands from both sides make successful negotiations uncertain. A partition of Ukraine proposed by China raises skepticism, and without a rational Russian leader willing to negotiate, peace talks may not yield results. However, exploring diplomatic avenues to end the conflict remains a crucial consideration.

The Endless Conflict

The war's future could resemble the frozen state of conflict between North and South Korea, with neither side able to strike a decisive blow against the other. Putin may eventually declare victory and solidify his current borders, resulting in a perpetual conflict zone with flare-ups between both sides. While Ukraine remains determined to reclaim all of its territory, Russia's increasing casualties and dwindling supplies could eventually lead to a shift in strategy.

Potential Paths to Resolution

While the war's end remains uncertain, there are potential paths to resolution that could avoid further escalation. For Russia to achieve its desired outcome, it would need to gain more allies, and China's support becomes crucial. However, China's hesitancy to provide lethal aid may indicate doubts about Russia's ability to win the war.

On the other hand, Ukraine's strategy seems to revolve around a continued war of attrition, utilizing NATO support to reclaim territory and withstand Russian advances. Zelenskyy's focus is on regaining control of Crimea, which has been under Russian control for nine years. The challenge lies in avoiding actions that could trigger a direct military response from Russia while still seeking a diplomatic way to resolve the conflict.

Conclusion

As the war in Ukraine continues, the prospect of a clear victory for either side remains slim. Negotiations face significant challenges, and the war may end with an uneasy status quo, perpetuating a simmering conflict for the foreseeable future. The possibility of a peaceful resolution depends on both sides' willingness to compromise and find common ground. Until then, the conflict remains a complex and evolving situation with global implications and the potential to impact international relations for years to come. Amidst the uncertainty, the hope for a lasting solution rests on the collective efforts of the international community to find a path towards peace and stability in the region.