Bangladesh 2025 Election: Rising Political Instability and Human Security Concerns Challenge the Nation’s Future

By Tuhin Sarwar :

Bangladesh’s national election, scheduled for 26 February 2025, stands as one of the most consequential political events in the country’s modern history. It is no longer merely about who governs next it is about whether the state itself can withstand overlapping crises: administrative weakness, political exclusion, leadership exile, and socioeconomik fatigue.

Analysts warn that even small disruptions—such as delayed polling or localized violence—could escalate into nationwide instability. In this fragile climate, the 2025 election represents not just a political contest, but a potential test of Bangladesh’s institutional resilience and human security.

Administrative Weaknesses: A Fragile Electoral Framework

Despite the Election Commission’s 24-point reform roadmap, implementation on the ground remains partial. Districts such as Cox’s Bazar, Bhola, and Khulna report incomplete voter list updates and limited deployment of trained polling staff.

A senior local official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated:

Instructions exist, but staff shortages and time constraints make full implementation impossible

Analysts at Control Risks note that fragmented election administration significantly heightens the chance of localized unrest, particularly when law enforcement units are under-resourced or politically divided. Their latest assessment warns that “even minor incidents may escalate into high-intensity conflict zones.

🔗 Control Risks – South Asia Election Risk Analysis

Political Restrictions: Threats to Democratic Legitimacy

The disqualification of a major opposition party has revived memories of the 2014 uncontested elections, when 153 seats went without competition. Opposition supporters and civil society actors argue that such exclusions undermine electoral legitimacy.

Without all parties, the vote loses meaning,” said a voter in Chittagong.

According to Human Rights Watch, politically motivated arrests and restrictions on rallies are increasingly common, creating an atmosphere of intimidation rather than participation. This exclusion not only deepens mistrust but raises the probability of violent mobilization in politically tense districts.

🔗 Human Rights Watch – Bangladesh: Political Repression Report 2024

Exiled Leadership and Shadow Influence

Several senior figures of the Awami League and opposition alliances are currently residing abroad—particularly in New Delhi and London—where, according to regional media, they are coordinating strategy and messaging.

Wealthy axpatriate donors, according to India Today, play an increasingly decisive role in funding political campaigns and information operations, both online and offline. This external influence blurs the boundaries between domestic and foreign political dynamics, creating uncertainty about who truly controls the narrative.

🔗 India Today – Bangladesh Election 2025: Regional Power Play

At the local level, field observations suggest that grassroots leaders act independently in the absence of clear directives, often pursuing self-preservation rather than national interest. These local dynamics make the electoral field volatile yet deeply human, where survival and loyalty overlap.

Economic Stress: Fuel for Political Tension

The economic dimension of this crisis is undeniable. Inflation reached 9.7% in mid-2025, with food and energy costs climbing steadily. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) reports a decline in rural wage growth, while the taka’s depreciation against the US dollar continues to strain imports and fuel prices.

As the International Crisis Group notes, “economic anxiety often transforms into political anger.

🔗 International Crisis Group – Bangladesh Briefing 2025

In coastal regions such as Bhola and Cox’s Bazar, shortages of fuel and transport disruptions have already triggered sporadic protests. Security experts describe this as a “crisis contagion effect”—where economic frustration spills over into political unrest, amplifying insecurity for ordinary families.

Historical Precedent: Cycles of Violence and Instability

Bangladesh’s post-independence history shows that political transitions are rarely peaceful. Between 2014 and 2023, more than 500 fatalities were recorded during pre-election clashes, according to Human Rights Watch and Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK).

🔗 ASK Annual Human Rights Report

Only four national elections have been widely regarded as free and fair, underscoring a persistent legitimacy deficit. These cycles of confrontation boycotts, crackdowns, and partisan policing have hardened public cynicism toward democratic institutions.

For many citizens, democracy feels procedural but not participatory. Yet, the people most affected by political violence are not politicians but workers, teachers, and day laborers struggling for stability amid chaos.

Geopolitical Dynamics: Regional Stakes Rising

Bangladesh’s 2025 election carries significant regional and international implications. India views Dhaka’s stability as vital for security in the Northeast corridor, while China remains a key investor in infrastructure and energy projects. Western allies, including the United States and European Union, have called for “inclusive and peaceful” elections, emphasizing the need for a transparent process.

Reuters reported that instability could jeopardize $12 billion in ongoing development projects, particularly in transport and energy sectors.

🔗 Reuters – Bangladesh Election Uncertainty Threatens Investments

Diplomatic observers warn that if the election is perceived as illegitimate, it could push Bangladesh into a strategic balancing crisis, complicating its relations with both Beijing and New Delhi.

Human-Centered Perspective: Lives on the Line

Beyond politics, it is ordinary Bangladeshis who bear the brunt of unrest. In Narayanganj, a garment worker named Rehana explains:

We don’t care who wins. We just want peace so our children can go to school.

Such testimonies reflect a broader humanitarian anxiety. According to UNICEF Bangladesh, election-related disruptions can directly affect school attendance, food supply chains, and child protection systems.

🔗 UNICEF Bangladesh – Political Instability and Child Impact Report

When security forces are deployed for crowd control instead of community safety, essential services—from healthcare to relief distribution—suffer. For women and children in low-income areas, the intersection of poverty, insecurity, and gender-based violence becomes particularly severe.

Accountability and Global Oversight

The United Nations, the European Union, and Human Rights Watch have called for international observation to ensure transparency and accountability.

🔗 United Nations – Statement on Bangladesh Election 2025

However, civic watchdogs such as Manusher Jonno Foundation (MJF) argue that observation alone is not enough. They call for structural reforms independent judiciary oversight, media protection laws, and digital transparency mechanisms—to prevent systemic manipulation.

Without these safeguards, even a technically successful election could fail in democratic legitimacy and human security.

Conclusion: More Than a Political Contest

Bangladesh’s 2025 election is not simply a political event—it is a litmus test of state stability and the government’s capacity to uphold human rights under pressure.

If the process remains transparent and inclusive, it could reinforce global confidence and domestic trust. But if polarization deepens and violence spreads, the country risks entering another cycle of crisis—economic stagnation, civic disillusionment, and diplomatic isolation.

Ultimately, the outcome will not be measured by turnout or results, but by whether Bangladesh can protect its people from the consequences of its own politics.

By Tuhin Sarwar । Investigative Journalist | Bangladesh । tuhinsarwar.com