UKRAINE November 2–3, 2024

One of the most critical junctures in the war in Ukraine arrived with it facing one of Russia's strongest offensives since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

 Over recent days, hostilities have markedly escalated in the Donetsk region, among others, with Russian forces piling immense pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This paper synthesizes key developments from recent articles to provide an overview of the situation on the ground and discusses military strategies and foreign involvement, with implications for Ukraine's defense.

On November 2, 2024, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian troops are currently facing one of the most powerful Russian offensives since the beginning of the war. The intensity of combat increased-especially in the Donetsk Oblast, where military resources were focused by Russia.

Syrskyi characterized conditions on the battlefield as heavy and in need of the continuous replenishment of Ukrainian forces.

Frontline Clashes and Tactical Developments

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 126 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces on November 2 alone. 

The most intense fighting is occurring along the Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk axes, with Russian forces outnumbering and outgunning Ukrainian troops, forcing their incremental retreat. According to Ukrainian military estimates, Russian activities are also growing in intensity in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, further draining Ukraine's already stretched defenses.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces achieved a tactical victory in mid-October when the village of Kruhliakivka, which is critical for holding Kupiansk, was liberated. 

It has been reported that Russian troops are currently attempting to create crossings near the Oskil River, further threatening Ukrainian positions in the region.

North Korean Troops Deployed to the Ukrainian Border

In a surprising turn of events, it is reported now that Russia has mobilized over 7,000 North Korean troops along the border with Ukraine and equipped them with standard infantry weapons. 

According to Ukraine's military intelligence agency, HUR, military hardware was supplied to this troop, comprising 60-mm mortars, AK-12 rifles, machine guns, sniper rifles, anti-tank guided missiles, and night vision. The move has deeply concerned Ukrainian officials, with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, criticizing the complete absence of any international response to the deployment of North Korean troops.

Zelensky said that Ukraine, now with long-range Western weapons, could strike in advance at positions where North Korean troops are based. The involvement of North Korean forces is viewed as a decisive move for Russia, which is desperate to add more military muscle amid continuous failures.

A Rampage of Russian Strikes

In his address to the nation on November 3, President Zelensky emphasized the keen extent of the recent strikes the Russians have inflicted upon Ukraine: within a week, Russia had managed to launch approximately 900 bombs, 500 Shahed drones, and about 30 missiles. 

The main targets happened to be the civilian infrastructure and critical facilities, which contributed to the humanitarian crisis in this country.

Such attacks would not have been possible, Zelensky said, if Ukraine's allies provided adequate long-range striking capabilities and real sanctions against Russia's military supply chains. Casualties from the recent wave included three people dead and 24 wounded, with homes and infrastructure also suffered significant hits.

Defense Production and International Cooperation

Considering the growing threat of drones from across the border, the Ukrainian government has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Thales of Belgium for anti-drone missiles. 

Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin announced this cooperation, stating that such cooperation will give a much-needed boost to its defense industry and at the same time provide adequate protection against enemy drones to very important infrastructural units. Considering the increase in drone strikes during the recent months, beginning the production of missiles capable of countering the drones was very urgently needed.

Thales is known for its advanced air-to-ground rocket systems, and technology transfer in Ukraine, coupled with production of the missile components, will significantly enhance Ukraine's defense capability.

Mobilization Efforts and Military Readiness

Roman Kostenko, the secretary of Ukraine's parliamentary defense committee, informed his guests that mass mobilization urgently needed to be done with field conditions as they are. 

He referred to the previous estimates by the former Commander-in-Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, and suggested 500,000 recruits were needed in order to effectively counter the intensive methods of war being waged by Russia. Ukraine has already mobilized over 1.05 million soldiers, but ongoing casualties and troop rotations require even more.

The given estimate for a mobilization plan is said to be 500 billion hryvnias, which indeed showcases that the government is really facing huge financial and logistical challenges in a bid to increase its military presence.

Chemical Warfare

With the continued operation of this war, with intensified activities, there have been reports on the increased use of unknown chemical agents by the Russian forces. 

The Ukrainian Colonel, Artem Vlasiuk, implied that most of the gases used in these recent attacks remain unidentified; there is a big question regarding the after-effect psychologically and physically for Ukrainian troops. Employment of chemical agents has become a factor within the tactics used by the Russian forces, including those prohibited under international law, aimed at creating panic among Ukrainian soldiers.

Chemical attacks have therefore been on the rise, with a total number of 323 cases in October of this year alone. However, most of these were gases that Ukrainian forces were unable to identify. The inability of Ukraine to acquire sophisticated technologies for detection has become a challenge to its efforts toward documentation of such an impact of chemical warfare on the battlefield.

Need for Improved Capabilities in Detection

But not knowing what kind of gases the Russians are using, medical treatment falls behind, and evidence collection for international investigation is impaired. 

This was obviously not enough, and Colonel Vlasiuk argued that hundreds of detectors were needed for actual monitoring of chemical agents. Current estimates put sophisticated detectors at between $100,000 and $600,000 each, a further complication to the procurement efforts of Ukraine.

These urgently needed resources have remained elusive despite discussions at various international forums, including the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The perceived needs in less specific but more tactical areas, such as ammunition and conventional weaponry, tend to distract from the need for chemical detection capabilities.

International Response and Accountability

The meager evidence supporting Ukraine's claims aside, the international community has given a tepid response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by Russia. T

he OPCW said with both accused, Russia and Ukraine have charged each other with deploying chemical agents, but either side has failed to provide sufficient evidence against their opponent to bring the matter to action.

Conclusions about the use of chemical weapons by Russia were supported by U.S. and U.K. officials and brought a number of sanctions against some Russian military units involved in such activities. Still, there is more serious action required on an international level, which puts under question accountability and the viability of the existing treaties regulating the use of chemical weapons.

These challenges in Ukraine, marking one of the biggest since the beginning of the war, do call for the devising of a combined strategy to counter the offensives by the Russians. This involves North Korean troops, increased drone warfare, and even chemical weapons-one therefore needs a multi-pronged approach to enhance military capabilities, improve detection technologies, and marshal more resources.

This kind of assistance is crucial from the international community if Ukraine is to emerge from these challenges. The absence of timely and effective assistance, however, risks undermining the country's efforts of defense. While the conflict continues to evolve, so does the test for Ukraine's resilience and adaptability, while the stakes are still high for the future of the nation and its people.

(reuters)