Are North Korean Troops the Game-Changer Russia Needs in Ukraine?

What started as a territorial issue between Ukraine and Russia has spiraled into an international, multidimensional crisis with forces from literally all parts of the world. 

Probably one of the most epoch-making and controversial developments in recent months is the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia, closer to the Ukrainian border. Since this surprising alliance came into the limelight of global attention, North Korean troops-who are being brought up under a stern totalitarian regime-have arrived to reinforce Russian military operations.

With Western nations stepping up support for Ukraine, North Korea's determination to support Russia brings in new, perhaps destabilizing elements. In a country already notorious for its cloistered regime, the presence of North Korean troops on Ukrainian soil raises a host of questions about military capability and motive, and what that means geopolitically. 

It is for this reason that understanding North Korea's military makeup, equipment, and elite units, coupled with the nature of the partnership with Russia, becomes important in ascertaining what is at stake in this international alignment.

North Korean Military: Strengths, Challenges, and Capabilities

The KPA is North Korea's armed forces and consists of one of the largest armed forces in the world with 1.5 million active personnel and over 7 million reservists and paramilitaries. 

At least on paper, this implies a military of impressive size that ought to be able to have a considerable impact on conflicts around the world-to which, as a matter of fact, it is presently in the Ukraine. Yet, questions do arise regarding how much such a force can be effective given the country's isolation, outdated equipment, and the restrictive terms in which its soldiers are kept.

Historically, the bulk of North Korean arsenal was of Soviet- and Chinese-designed equipment leading many international observers to view its capabilities as antiquated and under-resourced. But since 2012, when Kim Jong-un took over, the KPA has undertaken a modernization program aimed at significant resources-apparently over 30 percent of the national budget-toward upgrade of military hardware and training regimens.

It was estimated that the mainstays of North Korea's conventional armaments included around 550 combat aircraft like MiG-29s and Sukhoi jets; more than 300 attack helicopters; 400 combat ships; 280 amphibious vessels; and 70 submarines, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Although these may not compare with the sophisticated technology of a Western military, they can be considered a seriously formidable fighting force in a conventional war scenario, especially in addition to North Korea's enormous artillery reserves.

Of all the almost insurmountable capabilities that exist within North Korea, its artillery systems top the list. North Korea has an estimated 10,000 artillery systems-most of them emplaced along the DMZ facing South Korea-making the North a possessor of one of the most dense concentrations of artillery anywhere in the world. Similarly vast prepositioning of ammunition built over decades enables the KPA to conduct drawn-out artillery bombardments. 

Recent intelligence reports confirm the transfer of millions of these artillery shells and other munitions to Russia, reinforcing Moscow's artillery firepower on the Ukrainian front.

Elite Forces and Special Operations Units

Among the most valuable military assets of North Korea are its elite units and special forces, totaling about 200,000. 

These forces are highly trained in asymmetric warfare tactics and have expertise in clandestine operations, thus very valuable in areas where traditional military concepts are inept. They are recognized for stealth, discipline, and loyalty; such units do complex missions efficiently and precisely. 

Special forces of North Korea gained notoriety internationally in 2017 when they assassinated Kim Jong-nam, half-brother of Kim Jong-un, using the nerve agent VX in a public Malaysian airport. Such operations only underlined their ability and will to carry out high-risk missions under the most challenging conditions.

An estimated 150,000 of these elite troops are considered light infantry-trained for infiltration and sabotage missions deep behind enemy lines. Their operational focus would be also disrupting enemy supply chains, attacking key infrastructure, and assassinating high-value targets. With high-tech communication devices and highly trained in guerrilla tactics, these forces would pose a grave threat in any conflict. 

As North Korean troops begin deploying to Ukraine, it goes without saying that the special missions of these elite units, such as targeted strikes and close combat operations, could turn the tide of conflict significantly in favor of the Russians.

Challenges of Malnutrition and Poor Living Conditions 

In contrast to the elite forces' rigorous training and better access to equipment, the greater numbers of KPA troops are faced with harsh living conditions, reflecting directly on their combat preparedness. 

In the year 2017, a North Korean soldier who defected across the DMZ was found with severe malnutrition and parasites, which pointed to the substandard nutrition and hygiene prevalent among the regulars. The chronic hardships among North Korean soldiers also speak volumes of the profound limitations that are reflected in how the country attempts to care for such a huge military force.

As things currently stand, North Korean soldiers appear to be ideologically committed, partly a result of heavy indoctrination from an early age. There is a nationalistic and anti-Western narrative that is put out by the leadership in North Korea, instilling a keen sense of loyalty towards the regime among the citizens. Service in the KPA is thus more a matter of honor than obligation for North Koreans, closely tied to national identity and survival. Such ideological conditioning creates a highly motivated but physically strained fighting force-one that is capable of great loyalty and endurance in the face of very difficult situations.

Geopolitical Calculations

The axis between North Korea and Russia, which has greatly increased since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, has its roots in shared anti-Western sentiment and strategic interests. 

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said during a meeting in Moscow that North Korea is determined to be "unconditionally" supportive of Russia and will stand in support of Moscow until it achieves "victory" in Ukraine. This statement defines a relationship greater than one of mere military cooperation, but rather one implying a long-term alliance that both parties consider advantageous.

The burgeoning alliance has taken the shape of a strategic pact, aptly titled the "Strategic Global Partnership Treaty," with provisions for military intervention in the event of an external attack. The treaty signifies the formalization of military and political relations between North Korea and Russia, thus setting a ground for future cooperation. 

In return, support for Russia by North Korea offers several important advantages: access to advanced Russian armaments, the ability to check its military capabilities in combat conditions, and an opportunity to strengthen its geopolitical position against the West.

Strengthening of Russian Military Capabilities

Such an influx of North Korean soldiers into Russian frontlines could dramatically alter the dynamics of the war in Ukraine. 

As many as 10,000 North Korean troops have already been brought in, with up to 8,000 deployed to the strategically crucial Kursk region. They are not involved in active combat so far, but according to intelligence assessments, their deployment on the contact line may well start any moment.

The North Korean soldiers have quite a different set of skills that they take to a battlefield, not to mention their elite forces with unconventional warfare experience. This kind of unit would be expected to conduct targeted operations: from infiltration and sabotage all the way up to counterinsurgency missions in support of Russia's conventional military action. For example, such missions would destroy Ukrainian supply lines and critical infrastructure, and would thus weaken Ukrainian defenses in the regions contested.

Save for perhaps the actual deployment of troops, one of the biggest contributions the government in North Korea has given to the Russian military effort is the transfer of its stockpiled artillery rounds, comprised of several millions of shells along with other varieties of ammunition. Given the immense emphasis Ukrainian and Western forces place on precision-guided missiles and artillery, the supplies emanating from North Korea endow Russia with an altogether replenished supply capable of sustaining long periods of combat use. While less sophisticated than Western artillery, the volume of North Korean artillery allows Russia to maintain a high rate of fire across key areas and testing Ukrainian attempts to push back against Russian gains.

Western Response and International Ramifications

North Korean involvement in the war in Ukraine has drawn broad condemnation from Western powers. 

Recently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed there were intelligence reports of North Korean troop deployments in Russia, referring to a "dangerous escalation" of the conflict. In return, Western powers have increased support for Ukraine, with even more military assistance and state-of-the-art arms in light of a growing Russian-North Korean alliance.

Another adverse effect of this partnership is that it instills fears of the proliferation of military technology, with North Korea gaining access to advanced Russian systems that may later be used to arm its military forces. All of this is particularly disturbing to nations in East Asia-most especially South Korea and Japan-who view an empowered North Korean military as being a threat to regional stability.

A Potential Escalation in East Asia?

North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine conflict, coupled with its continued missile tests, could be perceived as an assumption of a more aggressive posture that might spill over into other theaters of Europe. 

In recent weeks, North Korea has conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test, widely viewed as flexing its muscles to send a message of its heightened capability and preparedness to stand up against perceived adversaries. The result has been a dramatic ratcheting up of tensions in East Asia-particularly for countries directly threatened by the growing arsenal of the North.

With North Korea cementing a tight bond with Russia, further provocations are more likely in East Asia. The U.S. and its regional allies have become increasingly wary of a new North Korean policy posture manifested as a greater degree of provocative disposition backed by its new partnership with Russia and mutual support guarantees.

This gives new meaning to the conflict in Ukraine and comes with heavy implications for world security and geopolitical alignment. The North Koreans' support supplies the men and bullets for Russia to act more against the challenges posed by Ukrainian resistance and Western military support. More importantly, an alliance between North Korea and Russia reinforces an anti-Western axis which may reshape power dynamics not only in Ukraine but also in East Asia.

The role that North Korean troops play in the conflict will, of course, depend both on the overall scale of deployment and the level of any special skills they may bring with them. For the West, this is a development that makes a strategic response all the more imperative, engaging both immediate challenges presented by the Ukraine conflict itself and longer-term implications of an evolving closer North Korean-Russian axis. 

The war in Ukraine has moved beyond the stakes of Europe into the dawn of a new era of alliances among military and political powers. One in which alone it finds its strength by uniting against Western influence.

(afp, dpa)