NATO's Ticking Clock: Experts Warn of Russia's Rising Threat and Urgency for Transformation

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the long-standing security architecture that has governed much of the post-Cold War period, and nations-particularly in Europe-are scrambling to reassert military readiness in the face of a renewed and resurgent Russian threat. 

NATO, the military alliance forged to counter Soviet expansion during the Cold War, finds itself in the midst of the most significant transformation since its creation.

According to General Christopher Cavoli, NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and General Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the German Bundeswehr, in recent interviews, the scope of military preparation, strategic adjustment, and the urgency of alliance response to the evolving Russian threat can hardly be overstated.

Transformation and Strategic Preparedness of NATO

What General Cavoli points out, NATO has undergone a profound transformation in recent years; the need to reshape military capabilities in light of the immediate threat represented by Russia's actions in Ukraine. 

NATO member states have multiplied the readiness of their armed forces, so that tens of thousands of soldiers can reach any part of the theatre within days of a threat emerging. It is a seismic shift from the few small out-of-area missions that earlier preoccupied the Alliance.

"We have done much over the last couple of years to raise our military readiness," Cavoli said. "Today, tens of thousands of soldiers are ready and could be deployed quickly in case of need. These are big steps forward but there is still much work ahead of us." That is, in essence, NATO has moved from a peace-time posture to a full-scale defensive stance.

But for all those gains, a sense of urgency underlines NATO's continuing efforts. Military intelligence has periodically warned NATO members since hostilities began in Ukraine that Russia, so far emboldened by the wartime economy, is positioning itself to mount, in the not-too-distant future, an even more aggressive assault. 

President Putin called for reasserting Russian military power and revising the regional military structure in response to what he saw as long-time confrontation with NATO; he even ordered the short-term recruitment of an additional 300,000 soldiers, which means Russia is not on the defensive but is preparing for a long, intensifying war.

General Breuer makes this emphatically clear. "We must know what Putin plans to do," Breuer says. "His war economy is going at full speed, and he is preparing for a long war. The Russian army is reorganizing and increasing the size of its ground troops. We don't have unlimited time to get ready ourselves."

This military build-up on Russia's side, plus its strategic partnerships with other global powers like China and North Korea, makes the response by NATO pretty complicated. What once was a strictly regional European threat has now-it is perceived-developed into a global problem. The alliances of Russia, put alongside growing military presence, demand a broad and integrated response on the part of NATO.

Increased Military Spending and Capacity: Imperative

The military strategies, as pointed out by the leaders in NATO, make it crystal clear that it is a race against time for the alliance to strengthen its capabilities, both on the defensive and offensive side. Defence plans have matched what is immediately and presently required by the members of NATO to deter Russian aggression. Such adjustment is not just confined to merely an increase in the number of troops, but modernization and diversification of military assets are needed, especially in areas of air defense, logistics, and technological warfare.

A big gap in NATO capabilities is air defense, especially against modern threats such as drones and long-range missiles. The war in Ukraine has brought into sharp focus the importance of strong air defense systems that can neutralize new-generation arms; hence, air defense has emerged as a priority concern for NATO. Cavoli underscores that NATO is working hard to close that gap, but the battle seems to be one of time: "We need to move quickly, much quicker. The growing capability of our adversaries, particularly in missile technology and drone warfare, forces us to act faster than ever."

It is one of the most relevant questions standing before NATO-how quickly will the governments of each state be able to marshal their societies' resources to meet the new demands of the fast-changing alliance. So-called "Minimum Capability Requirements" now being put in place for each nation represent definite expectations of the contributions to be made to not further damage the alliance's collective defense. But such efforts will not pay off without a steep increase in defense spending-a matter that became even more acute in light of Russia's steeply rising military investments.

He says current levels of defense spending across all NATO members-the two-percent GDP target, for instance-no longer suffices to maintain the strategic edge of the alliance. "Russia's military spending is far beyond what NATO states are investing in their own defense," he says. "The two percent goal is only a minimum. We will need to exceed that threshold if we are to meet the growing demands of our defense strategies."

Until recently, Germany was usually criticized for having comparatively low defense spending compared with its peers; now, it is at the center of the transformation. Cavoli and Breuer also praised substantial improvements they'd seen recently in Germany, especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. All this constitutes Germany's so-called Zeitenwende, with steep and rapid increases in the country's defense budget. Germany now also pledges to meet higher expectations set by NATO as well. "A strong Germany is good for NATO," says Cavoli, "and it's essential for the security of Europe as well."

The Reality of Modern Warfare: The Role of Technology and Missile Defense

While the reinforcing of military capabilities by NATO has been in the offing, what has been spontaneously clear is that new technologies are reshaping the modern battlefield. One such technology is the role of medium-range missiles, a category into which the Tomahawk cruise missile falls, which NATO is considering redeploying once more to Germany. Whereas the debate on missile defense systems has led to some sort of controversy, Breuer describes the reasons why such missiles are a necessity. "Medium-range missiles are an integral part of modern warfare," he says. "These missiles can strike with precision over long distances hence are a crucial deterrent against hostile forces.

This has, however, stirred the hornet's nest in Germany over the possible stationing of such missiles, which, many critics believe, would surely provoke more aggression from Russia. Breuer moves to oppose this view by pointing out the real threat does come from Russia's missile systems themselves, which currently already position and target Germany and other NATO countries. The threat is real, because Russia already has missiles in place that can strike at us," says Breuer. "We signal through stationing such missiles that we will defend ourselves. This isn't a provocation but a deterrence, an attempt to make our defense more credible.

Meanwhile, NATO tries to cope with a host of other security challenges: cybersecurity, energy security, and supply chains. Russia has shown how one of the most significant aspects of its multifaceted efforts to destabilize NATO members concerns hybrid warfare tactics ranging from cyberattacks via energy manipulation. This makes technological war fighting, ranging from cybersecurity to space-based capabilities, even more critical for NATO than ever.

The Strategic Importance of Ukraine's Defense

While NATO has been paying a great deal of attention to the restructuring of its defense, the war in Ukraine is still the defining conflict of this new era. Thus, the Ukrainian military, thanks to weapons and training provided by NATO members, has managed to stand remarkably firm against a much larger and better-equipped Russian army. General Cavoli praises the valor and grit of the Ukrainian forces, referring to their ability to hold their lines against overwhelming odds as nothing short of inspiring. "The Ukrainian forces have inspired the world with their courage," Cavoli says. "They have shown that, with the right support, even the most powerful adversaries can be pushed back."

Yet both Cavoli and Breuer took great care to note that the situation in Ukraine remains precarious and that much depends on continued Western support. Advanced weaponry - especially air defense systems, artillery, and drones - has been a game changer for the Ukrainian military. But Cavoli warns that to maintain this support is key for Ukraine's continued resistance. "If the flow of weapons stops, so will Ukraine's ability to hold the line," he says.

But the longer Russia has shifted to a strategy of mass recruitment and advanced missile systems, continued NATO support to Ukraine remains critical. Yet Cavoli also underscores the importance of Ukraine's own military industrial base rebuilding. "The Ukrainian military has been incredibly resourceful," he describes. "They are learning, innovating, and beginning to produce their own weapons, which is crucial to long-term sustainability."

Yet, against the background of Russia's colossal losses-according to some accounts, over 600,000 soldiers since the start of the conflict-the foe facing Ukraine is a very powerful opponent indeed in terms of mass mobilization, and it is an enemy learning from its past mistakes. Of course, while Russia might have taken huge losses, transformation and refining of tactics indeed pose a very serious challenge to NATO's defense posture.

And yet, Cavoli and Breuer remain upbeat: both are confident in the durability of NATO fighting against the changing environment. Such unity, based on a common understanding of the threat emerging from Russia, has been one of the hallmarks of the past couple of years. It is political cohesion that has made it possible for NATO to work out staunch plans of defense and to implement such plans at unprecedented speed.

We have seen a level of political unity in NATO that has never been seen before," Cavoli says. "This unity has been crucial in our ability to develop and approve these new defense plans so quickly. "But we cannot stop now. The threat is real, and we must be vigilant.

But as General Breuer concludes, "We are ready for whatever comes. NATO's strength lies in its unity and its unwavering commitment to the defense of its members." Guided by these principles for its future course, NATO stands tall to face the challenges of the new era in global security, ensuring that the alliance is strong and cohesive to respond to emerging threats.