The Volatile Nexus of North Korea, Russia, and NATO

It is hard to imagine more profound implications for international stability and regional security as North Korea draws closer to Russia in the context of its war in Ukraine.

China and North Korean relations have historically been complex and resilient, more often than not referred to by Chinese leader Mao Zedong as being like "lips and teeth." 

This metaphor conveys that North Korea provides a strategic buffer zone between China and the U.S. allies in East Asia. To be sure, China is deeply interested in the stability of Kim Jong Un's regime because it fears that one day an implosion would result in a massive influx of refugees across its borders, hence it faces a socio-economic problem. Even then, it has not been an entirely frictionless relationship. 

The actions by North Korea make foreign policy dreams by China more complex and muddled. Beijing wants to continue to maintain the relations with South Korea, which is its third-biggest trading partner. More importantly, China is growing increasingly impatient with the extent of North Korea's nuclear ambitions. 

This gets reflected in its more nuanced policies towards Pyongyang by urging it against provocative actions.

Military Engagement of North Korea with Russia

It appears that North Korea is deepening its military partnership with Russia nonetheless. There are reports that North Korea may send troops in support of Russia-a move that has raised eyebrows in Beijing. 

Chinese officials, including Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, claim they are in the dark over such developments, but experts argue such an arrangement could not have happened without China's tacit approval.

According to Mathieu Boulegue, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, Pyongyang would not resort to such escalatory behavior without consulting Beijing first. Therein lays a number of questions with regard to the level of China's knowledge and endorsement of North Korea's increasing military reach toward Russia.

Economic Interdependence between China and North Korea

The North Korean economy is hugely dependent on that of China; more than 90% of its total trade emanates from the latter. Economic dependence does indeed amount to an imperative; any dramatic change in North Korean politics or military policy must reckon with what this would mean in terms of relationships with Beijing. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, when the two nations closed their common border, North Korea's economy contracted by 4.5%, an eloquent example of how its economic fortunes have become hostage to Chinese policy.

But despite this web of interdependence, the missile tests and declarations of hostility towards South Korea in recent times demonstrate a growing confidence in its military capability, perhaps emboldened by the support from Russia. This rising aggressiveness will make life more difficult for China as it balances its own interests in regional stability.

Deployment of North Korean Troops

Ukraine and the United States believe support to Russia from North Korea goes well beyond rhetoric since reports indicate that up to 12,000 North Korean troops might be stationed to fight along with Russian forces in Ukraine. 

The aspect of military involvement between the parties is an issue of great concern, as it may lead to the escalation of conflict and changed dynamics in the region.

Observers point to the possibility of North Korea seeking financial support from Russia in return for its military assistance. It would mean a badly needed boost to the visibly ailing economy of North Korea and an enhancement in its military prowess as well through Russian technology and training.

Geopolitical Consequences of a North Korean-Russian Alliance

The implications of such an alliance between the North Koreans and the Russians would affect regional security and the balance of power in East Asia. Also, since North Korea would become more dependent on Russia for its military and economic needs, it would decrease its dependence on China and, therefore, weaken Beijing's influence over Pyongyang.

The move could seal deeper military-to-military relations between North Korea and Russia, perhaps altering the strategic dynamics of the area. According to Edward Howell, a North Korea expert at Oxford University, the moves by North Korea indicated an anti-West coalition that made it much more difficult for the U.S. to balance the containment of North Korea and Russia.

China's Reaction towards North Korea's Moves

China has been cautious in response to the growing military ties between North Korea and Russia. 

Various analysts had speculated that China may frown on the growing pledges of fealty by the North Koreans to their new buddies in Moscow, but Boulegue thinks Beijing probably got some quid pro quo in return for its tacit approval of these developments.

The inextricably complicated relations among China, North Korea, and Russia underpin a deeply fragile strategic balance in East Asia. While North Korea remains determined to position itself as a boisterous player on the world stage, the prospects of conflict and instability in East Asia will continue to remain patently high for the foreseeable future.

NATO's Readiness for a Protracted Conflict with Russia

The Evolution of NATO's Strategic Posture

Until February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO was working in a geopolitical environment that was conspicuously different from the Cold War era. What was once referred to by French President Emmanuel Macron as "braindead" is now awake to the nightmare of a conventional land war in Europe. NATO needs to reassess military readiness and political cohesion in response to a resurgent Russian threat.

With 32 nations under one umbrella, NATO is still fighting with barren ammunition silos, a politically fractured leadership, and less-than-satisfactory preparation against an enemy in a protracted war. Privately, senior officials have expressed one grim concern after another that, as it currently stands, NATO cannot project a meaningful military response against Russia without sustaining severe losses.

The Current State of NATO Military Capabilities

Shortages of ammunition, fragmentation of the defense industries, and low air defense capabilities are the main concerns for NATO, especially for its European contingent. The alliance still can boast with more active personnel and advanced military technology, but all these advantages can be not enough to bring it closer to victory in a prolonged conflict.

The proximity with Russia and its close ally, Belarus, puts NATO's Baltic states in a position of particular vulnerability. If war were to break out, Russian and Belarusian forces could easily reach across the Suwalki Gap and isolate the Baltic states from the rest of NATO. It is this geographic vulnerability that really puts into question the alliance's effective response to a Russian incursion.

Political Will and Unity among NATO Member States

More than military capabilities, though, the effectiveness of NATO hinges on unity and political will among member states to make sacrifices in a long, expensive war. The very real prospect that former U.S. President Donald Trump, who ceaselessly questioned the value of NATO when he was in office, will win the White House once more makes European leaders nervous about the future cohesion of the alliance.

These differences in the perception of threats within NATO membership make things a little bit more complicated. NATO's north and east are more habitually attuned to the dangers posed by Russia, although members on the Western flank of the alliance might be more wary of commitment to large-scale military action.

Influence of Russian Military Strategy on NATO

The military strategy in Russia has changed since the challenge towards NATO. The Kremlin had shown readiness to incur initial losses and then reconstitute forces for a long, drawn-out fight. This resistance would be quite tiresome for NATO, which must remain vigilant and ready for the possibility of a long-term conflict.

Recently, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur emphasized that NATO should "closely look at how to really help Ukraine in a substantively effective way so that Russia cannot rebuild its capabilities". The result of this war will most likely set the strategic posture of NATO for the next decade. This is a development that makes the unity of the Alliance and commitment to the collective defense commitment of the utmost importance.

The dynamics between North Korea, Russia, and NATO continue to evolve in a way that underlines the complexity of modern geopolitics. 

Perhaps most poignantly, the deepening relations between North Korea and Russia, while the war in Ukraine is still underway, run deeply into the core of regional and global security. China, being the key North Korean ally, further complicates this emerging scenario and therefore a reason to show curiosity and apprensiveness for its influence and interest in this region.

Meanwhile, NATO has a whole lot of troubles in response to a resurgent Russia, with everything from the emptying of ammunition stores to the divisions over political and threat perceptions playing into question marks over the ability of the alliance to respond effectively if an attack were to occur.

Leaders of the world will need to tread carefully and with foresight in these multi-faceted relationships that are changing at such a blistering pace. The stakes are going to get higher, and the need for nations being diplomatically engaged and strategically cooperative will be crucial in the production of stability and security in a more volatile world.

(reuters, dpa)