Global Staring Contest

There’s no shortage of Pravda-esque, pro-administration, applauding of Donald Trump’s cockamamie “tariff all the things” grand design to reengineer the global economy. These ovations come from people who can be separated into two categories: slavishly devoted MAGAs zealots addicted to propaganda and aspiring influencers offering contrarian takes in transparent attempts to be heard over all the social media noise.

Sisyphean frustration is the only product of trying to counter all these views, but hope springs eternal that there are plenty of rational people left in the world who understand Trump’s ostensible purpose; to renegotiate trade arrangements with partner nations which, aside from being a pretentious nonsense, would not work even if this were a good faith attempt at policy, because the world’s leading manufacturer, China, which is supposedly taking advantage of the United States (which is true to an extent), is not going to cave to the pressure and offer more favorable terms on trade.

Trump is currently twisting in the wind awaiting any sign his pompous threats and arbitrary punitive measures are going to bring China to heel. Far from caving to his demands, China has refused to even reach out to discuss tariffs and trade, leaving Trump pathetically awaiting any sign China is affected by his bombast, much less that it will bend the knee as he so arrogantly expects it to. China’s only response has been to call the United States a joke, one Trump is mainly the butt of, as he, like a perpetually single Hinge user, desperately implores China to talk to him.

There’s no shortage of cheerleaders for the administration citing superficial displays of acquiescence from countries such as Vietnam as evidence this pseudo-policy is having its intended effect. But, if you take a moment to actually scrutinize what they’re doing, and apply just a little bit of critical thinking, which, of course, is asking too much of MAGA thralls, you’ll see these are just performances that offer the United States nothing of substance.

At best, we’re getting a bunch of theatre from countries such as Mexico in the form of meaningless promises, like an increased military presence at the border to fight fentanyl trafficking. Not only will it not accomplish anything, since fentanyl is very compact and thus easily smuggled in great quantities, and is mostly brought in covertly by American citizens, but the promised soldiers were already deployed at the border. They’re just being moved from point A to point B.

Like the above example in Mexico, all the concessions the administration and its fanatical followers can cite have been nothing the United States didn’t already possess. For example, after retaliating against Trump’s tariffs with a 25% surcharge on energy exports to the United States, the Canadian province of Ontario agreed to retract it after being threatened with more tariffs. Putting aside the frayed relationship with Canada, the tariffs and surcharges that remain, and the inflated price tags American tariffs are creating, the net effect of the repeal of the energy surcharge is absolutely nothing. What, exactly, was the gain? Nothing as far as I can tell. Certainly nothing tangible.

And if in this trade war the United States cannot compel Mexico and Canada to offer anything valuable, then how does anyone figure China will be browbeaten into submission? It is truly delusional to believe that China is going to fold under the pressure of tariffs. This fantasy is driven by classic projection. Tariff supporters and anti-China hawks have made the mistake of believing China, its people, and its leadership will react to the vicissitudes of policy and geopolitical gamesmanship the same way they would. Having had a drastically different historical experience, particularly in the twentieth century, China most certainly will not.

The first thing to understand is this is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) we’re talking about. It is an authoritarian regime with no accountability to anyone. In the United States the government is accountable to the body politic, in the sense that the electorate can change leadership. There is no corresponding reality in China. Barring a bloody revolution, which seems unlikely, Xi Jinping is going to be president permanently, just as the CCP has been the only party to rule, or even be allowed to rule, since it won the civil war in 1949.

Keep in mind this is a country once led by Mao Zedong, arguably history’s greatest mass murderer. What this means is that the Chinese people’s suffering is not going to change the government’s position. Authoritarians, particularly those of the totalitarian stripe the CCP has always been, care far more about the projection of strength and the maintenance and accumulation of power than anything else. If their people have to endure a drastically reduced quality of life for the party not to show weakness by caving to Donald Trump’s demands, then so be it, as far as the party is concerned.

What authoritarian regimes fear most is vulnerability. When such a regime is perceived as weak, attempts to overthrow it become more likely. The CCP hasn’t been successfully challenged since taking control of the country because it has not have not exhibited the exploitable weakness necessary to give rise to challenges to its authority.

As far as the Chinese people are concerned, while empathy dictates decent people lament their agony, one can’t help but admire their resilience. Comparing any economic hardship that may result from the ongoing trade war to what China experienced during the Great Leap Forward is like comparing a paper cut to an amputation. Millions died, while many more suffered malnourishment and impoverishment. The Cultural Revolution saw many more die, and many today still suffer imprisonment and torture for displeasing the party.

While these depredations were at their worst during the aforementioned periods, they were also a feature of life, not a bug, under CCP dictatorship, as they tend to be under any authoritarian regime. If that wasn’t enough for the Chinese people to unshackle themselves from CCP oppression, it’s unfathomable the effects of the burgeoning trade war will.

It’s tempting to think economic pain will motivate regime change in China, or at least that the backlash will cause the CCP to kiss Trump’s ring, but understanding the nuanced and glaring differences between America and China, legally, culturally, and in every other way, can only lead to one rational that won’t happen.

Already, the cracks are showing-on the American side of this utterly pointless trade war, that is. There is no shortage of reports of Donald Trump impatiently waiting for a call he has demanded from China to negotiate a new trade agreement, a demand Xi Jinping and the CCP show no interest in meeting.

Xi Jinping has gone so far as to call America “a joke” after the latest trade war salvos were launched from both sides. Unfunny the joke certainly is, mostly because the American people are the punchline.