Why is Russia obsessed with conquering Ukraine?

The Ukraine war is the largest military conflict in Europe after World War II. It becomes evident that Russia's obsession with Ukraine stems from a combination of historical legacy, strategic imperatives, and geopolitical calculations.

1. History. Kiev is being often referred to as “ the mother of all Russian cities”. Peter the Great recognized the weaknesses of the Russian state and aspired to reform it following Western European models. To achieve this goal, he manages to capture ports at Azov and the Baltic Sea, laying the groundwork for the beginning Russia's expansion into an empire. Putin's admiration for Peter the Great is well known, and he has openly compared himself to the Russian tsar. He believes it's his destiny to recreate the Russian Empire. Crimea was conquered by Russia until the reign of Catherine the Great. Without the harbors at the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, Russia is an inland empire with limited influence. Seven months before the Russian invasion, an article was published by the Kremlin stating, “True sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia”. Essentially, it claims that the Russians and the Ukrainians are one people serve the same aim. The idea of ancestral possession is always used to strengthen an emotional claim on a territory. In Russia’s case, claiming a common ancestry to the ancient state of “Kievan Rus”, as well as a common language and the same Orthodox religion serves as a powerful emotional weapon for Ukraine, which used to be part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union. Such claims are often reinforced by cultural and mnemonic links made via literature, culture, and celebration of important historical events. Throughout history, great powers have sought to expand their influence and control over strategic territories. This has often involved the use of military force or covert operations to advance geopolitical interests. Putin's actions in Ukraine mirror this historical pattern, where reclaiming lost territories, consolidating power, and reestablishing dominance are central objectives.

2. Economy. Russia wants to establish its own customs union, called the Eurasian Economic Union. However, the Russian economy is much weaker than its neighbor in Western Europe or Eastern Asia. Russia doesn't have enough infrastructure, technology or market to achieve this goal. Access to Ukraine's vast agricultural and industrial sectors provides Russia with significant economic benefits. The Russian Economy has also suffered from Population decline in the last 30 years. If we further consider the pandemic and flight from mobilization, Russia lost between 1 to 2 m people in 2020-23 on top of its regular demographic decline. There are 8 million ethnic Russians out of 46 million inhabitants in Ukraine. Conquering Ukraine would give short-term relief for Russia's population decline.

3. Military. Ukraine holds immense significance for Russia. Its strategic location offers Russia access to the Black Sea and provides a vital buffer zone between Russia and the rest of Europe. The border between Russia and Ukraine is 2,295 km, which is too long for either country to defend effectively. The South Russian steppe offers no good defence position for Russian army. During World War II, Nazi Germany managed to fully seize the whole Ukraine, which is why the Russian government always seeks a buffer zone. Additionally, the naval base in Crimea has high strategic value as it basically gives Russia control of the Black Sea. Security is a common argument for control of “strategic” territories. Control over Ukraine also ensures dominance over crucial energy transportation routes, as it hosts major pipelines that supply natural gas to Europe. By maintaining influence or control over Ukraine, Russia can assert its regional power, safeguard its security interests, and exert significant leverage over European energy security.

4. Ideology. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia did not offer Ukraine any interesting development models. Ukraine chose a different democratic path, where power is not concentrated in the hands of one leader. The potential success of Ukraine can be threatening for Russian politicians. If a democratic Ukraine is allowed to gain strength and prosper, it will likely inspire Russians to seek similar changes in their own country. In other words, Russian leaders regard the existence of a free and democratic Ukraine as an existential threat to the future of Russian autocratic regime. Ukraine's aspiration to align closer with the European Union and NATO is seen as a direct threat to Russia's sphere of influence. Russia fears encirclement and the erosion of its traditional dominance over neighboring countries. Consequently, maintaining control or influence over Ukraine becomes essential for Russia to secure its strategic interests and preserve its geopolitical leverage.

Putin is well aware of this fact and its consequences. The Ukraine war is not an irrational action but more like history repeating itself. A great power’s nationalism and ambition have overridden any concerns for the economy and well-being of its own citizens. Putin may not aim at taking over all of Ukraine, but he certainly wants to control enough of the country to render it a submissive puppet state.