Trump VS Harris: Who is winning?
A Review of the most recent polling data.
Who's ahead in the polls?
(Source: fivethirtyeight.com) (aggregate polls)
In the national polls, Kamala Harris stands at 48.4% against Trump's 45.9%. That is a 2.5% lead for the Harris campaign nationally.
However, due to the electoral college system, the nationwide popular vote doesn't paint the full picture. After all, Donald Trump lost the popular vote against Hillary Clinton yet stole won convincingly in 2016. We need to look at the battleground states to determine the race to the White House...
The SEVEN Key Battleground States
Not including the battleground states:
Trump projection - 219 electoral votes.
Harris projection - 226 electoral votes.
The "King Maker" states:
Nevada - 6 electoral votes
Arizona - 11 electoral votes
Georgia - 16 electoral votes
North Carolina - 16 electoral votes
Pennsylvania - 19 electoral votes
Michigan - 15 electoral votes
Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
Nevada - 6 electoral votes
Who's winning in Nevada?
Nevada is neck and neck between Trump and Harris. As of recent polls, Harris stands at 47.8% against Trumps 46.9%. Harris has a lead of 0.9%. A razor thin margin...
Nevada has not flipped red since 2004. Therefore, the state still leans Democrat and they will like their chances in securing it's 6 electoral votes.
Verdict: (D) lead
Arizona - 11 electoral votes
Who's winning in Arizona?
The latest polls put Trump at 48.2% of the vote and Harris 46.7%. Trump leads by 1.4% in the state of Arizona. This is still a small enough margin for Arizona to be considered a toss up state.
Historically, Arizona has only voted blue twice in the past twelve elections! Once in 1996 for Bill Clinton and once in 2020 for Joe Biden. Notably, Biden only won the state by an extremely small margin of 0.3% when he flipped it in 2020.
Therefore, we can assume Arizona is still leaning red.
Verdict: (R) Lead
Georgia - 16 electoral votes
Who's winning in Georgia?
The current polls in Georgia have Trump at 48.4% and Harris on 47.1%. Trump leads in Georgia by 1.3%. It is considered a toss up state.
Georgia is historically a red state. When Biden flipped the state in 2020, by a 0.2% margin, it was the first time since 1992 that the state voted blue.
We can assume that Georgia leans red.
Verdict: (R) Lead
North Carolina - 16 electoral votes
Who's winning in North Carolina?
North Carolina polls show Trump at 48.1% of the vote, Harris at 47.3%. Trump leads by 0.8%.
History strongly suggests that Trump is favoured to win the state. In the past 11 elections, only Obama in 2008 was able to flip the state blue. Even then, he was only able to carry the state by a margin of 0.3%.
We can assume that the state leans red.
Verdict: (R) Lead
Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
Who's winning in Wisconsin?
According to recent Wisconsin polls, Harris stands at 48.4% against Trump's 46.8%. Harris leads Trump by 1.6%.
Historically, Wisconsin is a blue state. In the past 9 elections, Wisconsin has only flipped red once. That was 2016 when Trump won by a margin of 0.7%. In 2020, Trump lagged Biden by only 0.7%. This indicates Trump could be quite competitive in the state of Wisconsin.
The state still leans Democrat.
Verdict: (D) Lead
Michigan - 15 electoral votes
Who's winning in Michigan?
According to current polls Harris stands at 48%, where as Trump stands at 46.4%. Harris leads Trump by 1.6%.
Historically, Michigian is a blue state. In the past 8 elections, only Trump in 2016 has managed to flip the state red. In 2016, Trump was only able to secure the state by a razor thin 0.2% margin. Biden restored the Democrats lead in 2020, winning the state by a margin of 2.8%.
We can assume that Michigan leans Democrat.
Verdict (D) Lead
Pennsylvania - 19 electoral votes
Who's winning in Pennsylvania?
According to polls, Harris stands at 47.8% against Trump's 47.3%. Harris leads Trump slightly by a 0.6% margin.
Many pundits are calling Pennsylvania the most important battleground state this election cycle. With it's 19 electoral votes and how close the polls are, it's hard to disagree.
Historically, Pennsylvania has voted blue. In the past 8 elections, only Trump in 2016 has managed to flip the state red. In 2016, Trump won the state by a margin of 0.7%. Biden was able to claw back the state with a margin of 1.2% in 2020.
This state could go either way, and could feasibly put either candidate over the magic number of 270 electoral votes. A very important state for both campaigns, who are both watching very closely.
However, Pennsylvania ultimately leans blue.
Verdict (D) Lead
What does the electoral map look like?
The Projected Winner
A Very Tight Race
If the polls are correct, Kamala Harris will win the election.
However, the race is extremely close. Harris would only be over the finish line by 6 electoral votes. This means if there is an upset in any of the battleground states, there could be a different winner - or even a 270 to 270 draw!
A "Silent Trump Vote?"
There is also the possibility that the polls underestimate Trump's support. In both 2016 and 2020 the polls underestimated the vote share for Donald Trump:
- In 2016 Clinton led Trump by 3.9% in national polls. Come election day, she led the national vote by only 2.1%.
- In 2020 Biden led Trump by 8.4% Come election day, he led the national vote by only 4.5%.
This means that if there truly is a "shy Trump vote" the outcome of the election could look very different. This is especially the case in important states such as Pennsylvania and Nevada where they already look like they're going to be very close.
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William Shakespeare
William Shakespeare is widely regarded as the greatest writer in the English language and one of the most influential figures in world literature. His plays and poems have crossed centuries, cultures, and languages, shaping storytelling, drama, and even everyday speech. Yet, despite his immense fame, much of Shakespeare’s personal life remains a mystery. What we do know paints the picture of a remarkable man who rose from a small market town to become the most celebrated playwright of his age. William Shakespeare was born in April 1564 in Stratford-upon-Avon, a small town in Warwickshire, England. The exact date of his birth is unknown, but church records show that he was baptized on April 26, 1564, and it is traditionally believed that he was born on April 23. His father, John Shakespeare, was a glove maker and a local businessman who also held public offices, including that of alderman and bailiff (similar to a mayor). His mother, Mary Arden, came from a respected and relatively wealthy farming family. This background gave young William a stable upbringing and access to education. Shakespeare likely attended the local grammar school in Stratford, where boys were taught reading, writing, Latin grammar, and classical literature. At school, he would have studied works by Roman writers such as Ovid, Virgil, and Seneca—authors who later influenced his plays and poetry. Although there is no record of Shakespeare attending university, his deep knowledge of history, law, politics, and human nature suggests a strong education and an inquisitive mind. At the age of eighteen, Shakespeare married Anne Hathaway in 1582. Anne was eight years older than him, which was unusual for the time. The couple had three children: Susanna, born in 1583, and twins Hamnet and Judith, born in 1585. Tragically, Hamnet died at the age of eleven, a loss that many scholars believe deeply affected Shakespeare and may have influenced the themes of grief and loss in his later works. After the birth of his twins, Shakespeare’s life enters a period often referred to as the “lost years.” From around 1585 to 1592, there are no clear records of his activities. Many theories exist: some believe he worked as a schoolteacher, others think he traveled with acting companies, and some suggest he may have worked in London in various jobs related to the theater. Whatever he did during these years, by the early 1590s Shakespeare had clearly found his calling. By 1592, Shakespeare was established in London as an actor and playwright. London at the time was a bustling city, full of opportunity but also danger, with frequent outbreaks of plague and political tension. The theater was a popular form of entertainment, attracting people from all levels of society—from nobles to common laborers. Shakespeare became associated with a leading acting company known as the Lord Chamberlain’s Men, which later became the King’s Men under King James I. This royal patronage gave the company prestige and financial stability. Shakespeare wrote plays at an astonishing pace. His early works included comedies such as The Comedy of Errors and A Midsummer Night’s Dream, as well as historical plays like Henry VI and Richard III. These plays established his reputation for rich language, memorable characters, and engaging plots. As his career progressed, his writing grew more complex and mature. In the late 1590s and early 1600s, Shakespeare produced many of his greatest tragedies, including Hamlet, Othello, King Lear, and Macbeth. These plays explore deep themes such as ambition, power, jealousy, love, betrayal, and the nature of humanity itself. Shakespeare’s characters are not simple heroes or villains; they are deeply human, full of contradictions and inner struggles. This psychological depth is one of the reasons his works remain relevant today. Shakespeare was not only a playwright but also a poet. In 1609, his collection of 154 sonnets was published. These poems deal with themes of love, beauty, time, mortality, and art. Written in a strict poetic form, the sonnets demonstrate Shakespeare’s mastery of language and emotion. Many of them are still studied and memorized by students around the world. Financially, Shakespeare was very successful. He invested wisely, purchasing property in Stratford-upon-Avon, including a large house known as New Place. Despite his success in London, he maintained strong ties to his hometown. By around 1613, Shakespeare began to retire from active writing and returned to Stratford, where he lived as a respected and wealthy gentleman. William Shakespeare died on April 23, 1616, at the age of 52. The cause of his death is unknown. He was buried in the Holy Trinity Church in Stratford-upon-Avon. His grave bears a famous epitaph warning against moving his bones, a request that has been honored to this day. Seven years after his death, in 1623, Shakespeare’s friends and fellow actors published the First Folio, a collection of 36 of his plays. Without this effort, many of his works might have been lost forever. The First Folio secured Shakespeare’s place in literary history and allowed future generations to discover and study his genius. William Shakespeare’s legacy is immense. He contributed hundreds of words and phrases to the English language, many of which are still in use today. His plays are performed more often than those of any other playwright, and his influence can be seen in literature, film, theater, and popular culture worldwide. More than four hundred years after his death, Shakespeare continues to speak to the human experience, proving that great storytelling truly has no boundaries of time or place. In the end, Shakespeare’s life is a powerful story of talent, determination, and imagination. From a small-town boy in Stratford to the world’s most celebrated writer, his journey reminds us of the enduring power of words and the timeless nature of human emotion.
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