Tensions Rise: Assessing the Global Power Play Between East and West

In the movie "Red Dawn" from 1984, the brave Wolverines, a group of teen rebels defending middle America against a Soviet Union and Cuban invasion, ask a downed US fighter pilot (played by Powers Booth) what triggered the war. His response? "It's like the toughest kids on the block finally throwing punches." A lot of folks see the current situation between the United States and its buddies, mainly NATO, and China and its buddy Russia, in a similar light. With all the military buildup on both sides, it's kinda inevitable that they'll eventually use their strength to push their own global interests.

Right now, the tension between the strict east and the more easygoing west hasn't been this high in around fifty years. The invasion of Ukraine has pushed NATO and the United States really close to a full-blown hot war with Russia, almost like the Cuban Missile Crisis times. But unlike the past events that simmered down before shots were fired, the Ukraine conflict has resulted in a huge number of casualties. Russia thinks that many of their own deaths are due to the support Ukraine's getting from NATO and the U.S.

Putin and his crew keep on threatening NATO with nuclear weapons, saying they'll use them if they feel their country is in real danger. Things didn't get any better when Great Britain had a near-miss with one of its reconnaissance planes almost getting shot down in 2022, which would've cranked up tensions even more. Then, in November of the same year, a Ukrainian missile went off course and ended up killing people in Poland, making things even messier.

NATO has this Article 5 thing that says if any member nation is attacked, it's like an attack on all of NATO. So, for a bit, people were talking about a full-on war between Russia and NATO. Russia's been trying to paint NATO as the aggressors in this war, making it seem like they're just this tiny country fighting against the massive NATO enemy. The U.S. and its pals say they're helping Ukraine with military stuff and secret info, but not sending troops on the ground.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, China keeps on throwing threats at Taiwan. They've been sending fighter jets into Taiwan's airspace, especially after some important folks from the U.S. visited Taiwan. China even made it look like they could stop any U.S. support from reaching Taiwan. There's talk that China might start checking ships in the Taiwan Strait, but Taiwan says they won't stand for that.

So, are we almost in a hot war? First, let's clear things up. The U.S. and China aren't about to start a war right now. General Mark Milley, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in March 2023 that war isn't super likely at this point. But he also mentioned that there could be some incident that spirals out of control, especially if China tries to invade Taiwan, which they've been hinting at.

Now, let's look at the two big places where a war could pop off: Europe with NATO vs. Russia, and the Pacific with mostly U.S. forces against China's army and navy. We're not talking about the nuclear stuff, 'cause all sides have enough nukes to mess up the whole world.

Before Russia went into Ukraine, everyone thought they had a mega-strong military. They had tons of tanks, good air force, and a pretty decent navy. But their invasion of Ukraine showed that their tanks are outdated, their logistics are a mess, and their air force is kinda fragile. NATO, on the other hand, is stronger and more united than ever, especially with new members like Finland.

NATO's got a bunch of troops, and they've been giving serious firepower to Ukraine. Russia's taken big hits in this war – tons of vehicles lost, a bunch of planes, and way too many casualties. Their military doesn't look so tough anymore.

China has been diligently enhancing its military capabilities, although some critical components remain absent. While they have developed destroyers, their missile system lacks full readiness. Consequently, the prospect of confronting the US Navy is not yet within China's grasp. The situation does not herald an imminent hot war but rather treads on unstable ground, resembling a high-stakes gamble with potential dire consequences.

A glaring vulnerability in the Chinese navy lies in its aircraft carrier fleet. Presently operational are three carriers, each with distinct characteristics. The oldest, the Liaoning, hailing from the 1990s and originally constructed in Ukraine, primarily serves for training. The Type 002 Shandong, the second carrier, employs a ski-jump ramp akin to the Liaoning. Meanwhile, the third carrier, Fujian, is undergoing upgrades to integrate advanced catapults similar to those on the US supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford. This intricate setup necessitates training carrier pilots for two distinct takeoff methods, each necessitating matching aircraft adaptations. However, the prevailing JL-9G trainer's inadequacies prevent it from facilitating carrier landings and takeoffs, compounding the scarcity of adept carrier pilots.

China's J-15 Flying Shark, their carrier combat aircraft, has been criticized for resembling Russia's Su-33 prototype. It's heavy and faces limitations in terms of fuel and armament when taking off from carriers with ski-jump ramps. The Chengdu J-20, comparable to the US F-22 stealth fighter, can't be adapted for carriers. China is exploring hypersonic missiles to make up for its carrier deficit, but their reliability is uncertain.

While there's speculation about a fourth carrier under construction, the PLAN lacks enough pilots for their current carriers, unlike the US Navy's 11 Carrier Strike Groups. These groups comprise powerful warships, including nuclear-propulsion supercarriers and guided missile cruisers. Additionally, the US has Amphibious Ready Groups and numerous nuclear-powered attack submarines.

Experts note that the PLAN's ship count advantage includes coastal patrol craft, not suited for blue-water combat. Neighboring countries are also enhancing their naval capabilities in response to China's power projection attempts. Countries like Japan, Australia, and India are strengthening their naval forces to counterbalance China.

China's vulnerability lies in its heavy dependence on imported oil and gas, which could be disrupted by the US or its allies, leading to economic collapse and famine. Despite its growing power, China's reliance on imports and potential global opposition might dissuade it from prolonged conflicts. Additionally, the strength of the Russia-China alliance could be questioned, as Russia's military weaknesses were exposed in its actions in Ukraine.

Regarding capabilities, while China has expanded its naval capabilities, it still faces significant challenges and vulnerabilities when compared to the US Navy and its allies. On the other hand, Russia's ability to match the spending power of the EU, NATO, or the US remains limited. Russia's deficiency in a well-structured non-commissioned officer (NCO) training program has resulted in the loss of senior officers due to direct orders from leadership to frontline troops. Unlike NATO, the US, and China, Russia lacks the capacity for NCOs to independently assess battlefield situations and make agile adjustments, leading to outdated tactics that are ineffective in modern warfare characterized by drone surveillance, satellite tracking, and reconnaissance aircraft.

Russia's logistical shortcomings are evident too. The notorious "40-mile-long traffic jam" near Kyiv in early 2022 showcased their inability to maintain fuel-filled tanks and transports beyond their rail network. This issue is exacerbated by systems like HIMARS and smart ammunition that Ukraine has utilized to target Russian depots placed too close to the front lines due to Russia's logistic incapabilities.

China seems well aware of Russia's weaker position and has been exploiting this disparity. In the past, the Soviet Union held dominance in bilateral negotiations, even coercing China. Yet, Russia shifted to arming the Chinese communist government as an ally against the West. China, in turn, started copying or stealing Russian technology, undermining Russia's technological edge. Despite this, Russia continues to sell advanced military equipment to China, which often gets replicated. The post-Ukraine situation has made Russia more dependent on China economically, further eroding their compatibility.

China's recent actions reflect a neutral stance regarding the Ukraine conflict and aspirations for global leadership. China abstained from condemning Russia at the UN and refrained from directly supporting Russia in the war. China's refusal aligns with its ambition to maintain its neutral position while pursuing global leadership. Xi's meetings with Putin did not yield concrete agreements, and China's official rhetoric emphasizes its reluctance to tolerate US interference on several fronts.

Adding to Russia's troubles, Xi might be hesitant to fully support a potentially unstable Russian leader, Putin, given rumors of his deteriorating health. Putin's health issues, alleged Parkinson's Disease, and a series of suspicious deaths of top officials have led to uncertainty about his future. This, coupled with Russia's population decline, complicates the China-Russia partnership. Both countries face shrinking populations, making the decision to wage war now or later a challenging one.

In summary, Russia's inability to match the financial might, modern warfare strategies, logistics, and diplomatic maneuvering of its rivals, combined with leadership uncertainties and demographic challenges, places it in a challenging position. Meanwhile, China leverages its strengths while cautiously avoiding getting entangled in Russia's complex situation.