Operation Breakthrough!

Is Kiev now putting all its eggs in one basket?

For the past 16 weeks, Ukraine has been conducting operations in the south of the country aimed at regaining the Zaporizhzhya region, which was lost to Russia in the spring of 2022.

Initially, the Ukrainian army attempted to advance toward the Sea of Azov at three points, thus cutting off the Russian-occupied territories in the south and east of the country.

▶︎ In the west, it attacked directly along the E105 highway toward the major city of Melitopol.

▶︎ In the center, it attacked the Russians along the T0408 road in the direction of Tokmak (former population 33000).

▶︎ In the east, it tried to advance south along road T0518 in the direction of the former metropolis of Mariupol.

But this counteroffensive went differently than expected.

After just three weeks, the Ukrainian advance on Melitopol came to a halt. Only two villages could be liberated there. After that, Russian resistance was so great that the offensive movement became more and more bogged down in this section of the front. Since June 20, Ukraine has been unable to liberate any more territory in the area.

Things initially went better in the east.

South of the Ukrainian-held city of Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian forces advanced up to ten kilometers, liberating six villages along the road to Mariupol.

But there, too, things have been going nowhere for weeks. Since the liberation of the village of Uroshaine on August 13, Ukraine has been unable to make any ground gains here, in the border area between the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions.

A renewed attack on the nearby Russian flank, or the villages of Novodonezke and Novomayorske, ended in defeat for Kiev's forces in early September. Since then, things have been increasingly quiet on this section of the front, and even Russian war bloggers otherwise prone to exaggeration have conceded that Ukraine has not been active at all in the direction of Mariupol for about a week.

What remains is the Ukrainian advance in the center of the front.

There, between the villages of Robotyne and Werbowe, Ukraine deployed its best formations. Among others, these are units of the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 46th and 82nd Airborne Brigades. These are very active here and inflict heavy losses on the Russians.

With success! Ukrainian forces have been able to advance up to 13 kilometers deep in this section of the front, and for several days have even been fighting for the strategically important village of Novoprokopivka, which is only 17 kilometers north of Tokmak. Ukrainian troops already broke through the dreaded "Dragon's Tooth" line at one point here almost three weeks ago.

Ukraine now apparently wants to intensify its attack efforts in this direction and is therefore withdrawing units from the less successful front sections of the area.

Everything on one card?

"Near Robotyne and Werbowe, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have moved reinforcements from the Velyka Novosilka and Vasylivka directions of the Zaporizhzhya front. This is over 10,000 more soldiers in addition to the existing ones," Moscow-appointed "vice-governor" of the region Vladimir Rogov told Russian state news on Saturday.

To be sure, Kiev does not confirm information on troop redeployments in principle. However, the de facto cessation of combat activities in the east and west of the front and the extreme pressure on Russia's invasion force in the center reinforce the impression: the Ukrainian government is now apparently putting all its eggs in one basket, desperate to advance toward Tokmak.

Fortunately, Russia's armed forces in the region are so weakened that no serious Russian counterattacks are to be expected either on the thinned-out fronts to the east or to the west of Zaporizhzhya. All of Moscow's efforts to turn the tide militarily in the south of the country over the past 16 weeks have failed.