Joker: Folie À Deux Set for a Rough Opening Weekend in 2024

Expectations were sky-high for 'Joker: Folie À Deux', the follow-up to 2019’s hugely successful Joker, but it seems like the comic book sequel might be headed for a major letdown at the box office. With a production budget of around $200 million, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and DC Studios were likely hoping for a big debut. However, early signs suggest that the film could end up as one of 2024’s biggest box office disappointments.

Opening Numbers Look Grim

On Thursday night previews, 'Joker: Folie À Deux' pulled in $7 million in North America. While that may not sound too bad, it's less than half of what the original Joker earned during its previews in 2019. Back then, the film went on to make a whopping $96 million in its first weekend domestically, eventually grossing over $1 billion worldwide. For an R-rated film without a release in China, that was an impressive feat. 

Comparatively, Joker: Folie À Deux is now projected to open with a domestic debut between $45 million and $55 million—far below the $70 million that was initially expected just weeks ago. It seems the film's pre-sales, online buzz, and audience reactions from early screenings have all pointed to a much weaker performance than anticipated.

Audience and Critical Reception: A Mixed Bag

Critics and audiences have had mixed reactions to Joker: Folie À Deux. It currently holds a 38% “Rotten” score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and an even worse 37% audience score. Director Todd Phillips and screenwriter Scott Silver stuck close to the original story from Joker, but it seems that the film’s execution has not been as well received this time around.

One of the surprises in the film is its musical elements, which were largely kept out of the marketing. The co-lead nature of Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker and Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn was also downplayed in promotional material. These decisions might have contributed to the lukewarm reactions, as they weren’t what fans were expecting. Early reviews from the Venice International Film Festival were mixed, and as more feedback has come in, the signs have been increasingly negative.

Best and worst-case scenarios

It’s important to remember that these early projections are based on limited data, such as pre-sales and Thursday previews, and box office predictions can often be flawed. However, if the first 20 hours of domestic screenings are anything to go by, Joker: Folie À Deux could be in serious trouble.

In a worst-case scenario, the film might struggle to reach $300 million globally. That would be a massive drop from the $1 billion that the original Joker pulled in. However, there’s still a possibility that it could perform moderately well. If international markets show strong results, the film could land somewhere closer to $400 million, especially with China now in the mix—something the first Joker didn’t have. A decent performance in China could help boost its numbers, but it’s unlikely to save the movie entirely.

A more optimistic outlook suggests that the film might hit around $500-600 million worldwide, which would avoid a complete disaster. However, that would still be far below the expectations set by the success of the first Joker. Plus, competition will ramp up soon with the releases of 'Smile 2' and 'Venom: The Last Dance', both of which could eat into Joker: Folie À Deux’s audience.

The Importance of Cinemascore

One key piece of data that could give us a clearer picture of how Joker: Folie À Deux will perform long-term is its Cinemascore. This score reflects audience reactions after the first screenings, and anything below a B+ could signal major trouble for the film. 

For example, 2016’s 'Suicide Squad' managed to turn a B+ Cinemascore into a $749 million box office haul, while 'Shazam: Fury of the Gods' earned the same score but finished with just $134 million globally—one of the worst outcomes for any DC live-action film. If Joker: Folie À Deux lands a B or lower, it could point to a worst-case scenario where the film struggles to gain any momentum after its opening weekend.

On the flip side, if it manages to surprise everyone with an “A” Cinemascore, it could spark stronger walk-up sales and outperform the currently grim outlook.

What Comes Next for DC Studios?

While Joker: Folie À Deux might not live up to the expectations set by its predecessor, DC Studios can still take some comfort in other successes. The Penguin series, a spin-off from Matt Reeves’ 'The Batman', has received positive reactions on the Max streaming service. Plus, 'The Batman—Part II' is set to release in 2026 and could be a big win for DC Studios.

As for Joker: Folie À Deux, it remains to be seen whether the film will manage to turn things around. For now, it looks like the film may fall short of expectations, but anything could happen as more data rolls in over the coming days. The pressure is on DC Studios to deliver a hit with their next big project—'Superman', set to reboot the DC universe in 2025.