The Crazy Odds of Being Alone

I wanted to follow up on some really fascinating news I came across recently. It’s truly incredible, and if the research is accurate, it completely changes the way we should look at our place in the cosmos.

According to new research from the University of Rochester, the chances of us, human beings, being the only advanced civilization in the entire universe are staggeringly small. We’re talking about odds of about 1 in 10 billion trillion. Yeah, that number is enormous.

The conclusion? It’s highly likely that we are neither the only advanced civilization in the universe nor are we even the first. This bold claim comes after a major revision of the famous Drake Equation.

What is the Drake Equation?

Back in 1961, astronomer Frank Drake developed an equation to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations that exist in our very own Milky Way galaxy. The original equation looks like this:

$$N = R* \cdot f_p \cdot n_e \cdot f_l \cdot f_i \cdot f_c \cdot L$$

Here’s a quick breakdown of what those variables mean:

• $N$: The number of detectable civilizations in the Milky Way.
• $R*$: The yearly rate of star formation in our galaxy.
• $f_p$: The fraction of stars that have planets.
• $n_e$: The number of planets per solar system that can support life.
• $f_l$: The fraction of suitable planets where life actually emerges.
• $f_i$: The fraction of life-bearing planets where intelligent life evolves.
• $f_c$: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
• $L$: The length of time those civilizations release detectable signals.

When Dr. Drake first developed this, he admitted it was mostly guesswork. They simply didn’t have enough data. For instance, they didn’t know how many stars have planets, or how many stars there were outside of our solar system.

The Modern Update

Thanks to decades of observation, especially tools like the Kepler telescope, we’ve filled in a lot of those knowledge gaps. We now know, for example, that nearly every star has planets, and many are in the habitable (or “Goldilocks”) zone, where life could theoretically exist.

Because of these new developments, Dr. Adam Frank, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester, and astronomer Woodruff Sullivan from the University of Washington decided to update the famous equation.

They faced a major problem: we still have no idea how long an alien civilization can survive. Do they wipe themselves out with war or pollution? Do they go on for billions of years? Since we can’t answer that, Dr. Frank and Dr. Sullivan shifted the question.

Instead of asking how many civilizations are out there right now, they asked: Have other civilizations ever existed in the universe?

As Dr. Sullivan put it, this new focus “eliminates the uncertainty of the civilization lifetime question and allows us to address what we call the cosmic archaeological question: How often in the history of the universe has life evolved to an advanced State?”

The Mind-Blowing Conclusion

The researchers calculated the probability that human beings are the only advanced civilization to ever exist in the entire universe. And the result, as mentioned earlier, is a mind-blowing 1 in 10 billion trillion.

Even if you just look at our own galaxy, the Milky Way, the odds of us being alone are about 1 in 160 billion.

To put that into perspective, you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning, making a hole-in-one in golf, and winning the Powerball jackpot all in the same day than us being the only advanced life that has ever existed.

Dr. Frank’s take on the finding is pretty profound: “To me, this implies that other intelligent, technology-producing species very likely have evolved before us.”

Think about it: the universe is unimaginably vast. Most of it remains unseen and unexplored by us. How could it be possible that out of all that space and time, we are the only intelligent living beings? It’s simply illogical.

The scientific evidence is stacking up, and some of the most brilliant minds have said they believe in extraterrestrials. Yet, if you bring it up in everyday conversation, many people will still look at you like you’re completely out there.

Personally, I don’t care. I believe there is other life in the universe, intelligent life, and likely civilizations that are way more advanced than ours. It just makes sense.

What do you think about these new odds? Do they change your perspective on life elsewhere?