The Awesome Power Of A Fast Moving Asteroid Is Aimed At Earth Again

The Realities

The possibility of an asteroid striking Earth is something we know is all too real. It happened once when a seven-mile-wide asteroid caused the dinosaurs to go extinct. And it could happen again, someday. But what if the possibility changes to a probability?

Scientists have stated we shouldn’t worry about Apophis. Statistical chances of one hitting Earth were so far-fetched that you’d have a better chance of hitting the Powerball or Mega Millions. But a new threat appeared on the horizon that changed the numbers.

From one in a million to 1 in 100, or more accurately, a 1.2% chance of our world being hit by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032. But that also means there’s a near 99% chance of it missing us. Only time and differing gravitational factors will tell.

How big 2024 YR4 is will determine the threat level. Between 130 and 330 feet, based on early observations, it’s a fast-moving space rock somewhere between the size of a 13 and 33-story building. The size, speed, and potential of an impact alerted NASA and the ESA when 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 31st.

I suspect the following video is pretty accurate, considering it's a movie about asteroids hitting Earth.

What If It Hits Earth

Put the size in the middle of what’s possible, and it’s nearly 200 feet. What if a 200-foot asteroid struck our planet?

An asteroid 200 feet wide and traveling 38,000 miles per hour would unleash nearly unimagined destructive power. The energy unleashed from such an explosion would be the equivalent of about 25 to 50 megatons. It would be like detonating one of the largest nuclear bombs made in the modern era.

If the unthinkable happened, it would cause massive losses of life and property in an urban center and would be felt miles from the impact point. While it wouldn’t be able to cause an extinction event, it would be one of the worst disasters in human history.

The advances in technology and planetary defense make it theoretically possible to deflect an inbound asteroid, protecting millions of people in the process. After the success of the double asteroid rendevous test (Dart Mission), an asteroid this size, and detected this far in advance, could be turned away despite the threat it poses. But this also illustrates the need for greater focus on science and space studies, as thousands of these flying space rocks out there are a possible threat to life on Earth.

Even A Miss Is A Close Call

If all goes well, 2024 YR4 will pass by Earth and spare humanity from the catastrophic effects of an asteroid hitting close to a populated area. If it struck a populated area, such as New York or Chicago, it could kill millions of people. However, what if it does miss us?

Apophis is predicted to miss Earth by 18,000 miles. That sounds like an incredibly safe space. 2024 YR4 is going to be even closer at an estimated 900 miles in the case of a miss. What both have in common is that they carry the potential to cause collateral damage. Both, but particularly 2024 YR4, will be at a distance between Earth and most satellites.

Many of the larger satellites could be impacted by one or both of these incoming doomsday scenarios. Should that happen, large chunks of falling debris from various satellites could become a real problem. So these asteroids flying closer to Earth have more potential to do damage than just hitting Earth. That makes supporting the impacter missions NASA proposes even more important.

At the end of the day, there is no easy answer to dealing with space-based threats. It'd be nice if they were just something the movies dramatize to get a reaction out of audiences, as cool groups of people go into the great beyond to save humanity, but that's not reality. But since NASA and the scientific community have shown they can change the direction of potential threats, maybe we don't have to worry.