Recently Discovered Asteroid Chances of Hitting Earth Nearly Double

2024 YR 4 is at the top of the dangerous asteroids list and changed NASA’s opinion about the likelihood of an asteroid hitting Earth at any time in the next 100 years. Until recently, it was reported that there was virtually no chance of a large asteroid striking Earth soon. Since the discovery of 2024 YR 4, those numbers changed.

Now the numbers indicate the possibility of an impact. From zero, the possibility of an impact is more than 2 percent. That means there’s a nearly 98 percent chance it will miss Earth, but the numbers have grown. From Apophis being the scariest potentially hazardous asteroid on record to 2024 YR 4, there’s now a prospective date to watch and an impact zone.

Be glad you’re not in the impact zone. If you’re reading this from a more northern part of the planet you’re outside the predicted impact zone. Not that being outside of the impact zone should be much comfort because if the potentially hazardous asteroid strikes Earth, it means an explosive impact equivalent to more than 150 times the explosive energy released by the Hiroshima bomb in WW2.

The chances of this happening have grown in the 44 days since its discovery. The city-killer-sized asteroid is now rated at Level 3 on the Torino Scale. What that means is it’s a virtually guaranteed close encounter. Only a month ago, 2024 YR 4 was rated at a 1.2 percent chance of impacting Earth. This means the chances of a catastrophe have grown.

Early predictions show a likely impact zone.

2024 YR 4 impact zones:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Northern South America

Central Africa

Northern India

Parts of the Arabian Peninsula

If 2024 does hit Earth it’s more than likely to happen on December 22, 2032. An impact from the asteroid would lay waste to an area several miles across. In a population center, like Mumbai, it could kill thousands and leave the area covered by a cloud of dust and debris.

A direct impact would be felt hundreds of miles away. The energy wave from the explosive release would likely travel hundreds of miles per hour in every direction, and there would be the need for a massive international response.

Why is it important? Space agencies around the world spend millions on programs studying the likelihood of an asteroid impact as part of planetary defense. While 2024 YR 4 is only a city killer, there are many asteroids in the solar system and some of them could cause extinction-level events.

Another known asteroid with an admitted chance of hitting Earth is Bennu. Bennu is 1600 feet across and NASA has studied it for some time. Bennu is a large enough asteroid that an impact could force millions of tonnes of dirt into the atmosphere. At more than five times the size of 2024 YR 4, it would be far more than a city killer and could disrupt life on Earth for years. Fortunately, Bennu is about 150 years away from its highest chance of hitting Earth, which is slipping at .37 percent.

So far, all of the known asteroids that are listed as potentially hazardous have slim chances of striking our world. However, there have been predictions of imminent impacts. One of the first I ever noticed was 1997 XF 11.

What makes the subject stand out to me is when the 1997 XF 11 asteroid first made news it was predicted to splash down in the Atlantic Ocean in October 2027. The group that studied it and released their findings took nearly two years to calculate the trajectory. Then two weeks later NASA released a revised finding indicating it would pass by Earth at a comfortable distance.

One has to hope that the men and women who took government salaries instead of working in the private sector were the smartest and most capable.