The World Ahead 2024

In 2024, as ongoing conflicts persist and new threats arise, there is one image that will be replicated worldwide. This year will witness the largest display of democracy in history, but what else can we expect in the next 12 months? Here are some of the stories that will shape the future of our world.

2024 is set to be the biggest election year in history, with more than half of the world's population residing in countries holding national elections. However, there are two elections in particular that carry significant global implications. One is the election in the most powerful democracy in the world, while the other takes place on a small, self-governing island located less than 200km off the coast of China.

The January election in Taiwan holds great importance due to the uncertainty surrounding the island's future. According to US intelligence, President Xi Jinping aims to have his armed forces ready for a potential invasion by 2027. Taiwan is a geopolitical flashpoint, and any invasion by China could potentially lead to a war with America. Therefore, the stakes are high for the winners of both the Taiwanese and American elections. The strategies they pursue could either deter or hasten a Chinese invasion.

Within Taiwan itself, the threat of invasion is already palpable for some citizens. More than half of Taiwanese citizens lack confidence in their government's ability to defend against a potential invasion from China. As a result, some individuals, like 22-year-old Chen Buo Yen, are taking civil defense workshops to be as prepared as possible for the possibility of war. While fear exists, being prepared is crucial.

These concerns will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the minds of Taiwanese voters when they cast their ballots in January. They will have to choose between the current ruling party, which emphasizes Taiwanese self-rule and resistance against Chinese bullying, and two opposition parties that seek warmer relations. Supporters of the current government argue that the opposition would make it easier for China to eventually take over Taiwan. On the other hand, the opposition parties may have different perspectives.

Supporters of the current government argue that if the opposition were to come into power, it would create a favorable environment for China to eventually take control of Taiwan. Conversely, the opposition camp believes that the current DPP government is leading Taiwan towards legal independence, which they see as a path that could lead to a future conflict with China. The possibility of war is not solely dependent on Taiwan's election outcome, but also on the actions of the United States. Would the US send its military to Taiwan if President Xi were to invade? President Biden has stated that he would, but I cannot provide a definitive answer. A second Trump presidency would introduce unpredictability and increased risks, not only for Taiwan but also for the United States and the rest of the world.

In July, all attention will be focused on Paris for the 2024 Olympic games. While athletes compete on the ground, spectators may find themselves captivated by the skies above. At first glance, one might mistake a large drone for a helicopter. However, this is an eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft, which could potentially revolutionize public transportation. These eVTOLs operate solely on batteries, making them an environmentally sustainable way to travel by air. Just five years ago, eVTOLs were only known to a small group of aviation enthusiasts experimenting with new technologies. However, over the past year, we have witnessed numerous successful test flights, and next year, commercial eVTOL services are expected to launch. The Paris Olympics will serve as a significant milestone for the commencement of these commercial flights. Volocopter, the company responsible for these flights, aims to transport tourists along five different routes at speeds of up to 110kph. They believe that if they can operate in Paris, they can operate anywhere. This marks the beginning of a new era in mobility, allowing for quiet, safe, and sustainable vehicles to enter city centers where traditional vehicles cannot. The rapid evolution of this technology has posed challenges for aviation regulators in terms of certifying these flights. As a result, Volocopter has had to revise its original plan of pilotless, self-flying eVTOLs in order to comply with regulatory requirements and gain approval from authorities.

In the global market, numerous companies are competing to dominate the skies, with the potential value of this industry reaching $1 trillion by 2040. While a significant portion of this market will cater to commercial needs, there will also be companies that focus on providing private aviation services. One such company is Palo Alto startup Pivotal, which plans to launch an eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft in 2024.

Pivotal's eVTOL offers a unique flying experience, resembling more of a flying motorbike than a traditional flying taxi. With just one seat, it allows individuals with deep pockets to purchase and pilot the aircraft themselves. Despite its unconventional design, the eVTOL is surprisingly easy to operate, requiring only a few weeks of training and no pilot's license. However, it can only be flown over rural areas during daylight hours.

Equipped with two large wings, the eVTOL provides all the necessary lift for flight. Controlling the aircraft is as simple as using a single joystick, which enables the pilot to perform various maneuvers, including takeoff, landing, hovering, and forward flight. Although the price tag of $190,000 may seem steep, it is expected that the eVTOL will primarily be used for recreational purposes initially, but its usage will expand over time, eventually becoming a commonplace mode of transportation.

Tom Standage, the editor of The World Ahead, emphasizes the significance of this emerging industry. To stay informed about the prospects for the upcoming year and gain insights into future trends and themes, he suggests subscribing to The Economist, which includes full access to The World Ahead 2024.