"Quantum Mechanics, Free Will, and New Year's Goals"

January 1, 2025, is today. It’s not only the day we vow—yet again—to exercise more, eat better, and finally learn that second language. Additionally, UNESCO's International Year of Quantum Science and Technology officially begins today. It has been precisely one hundred years since the development of quantum physics, which fundamentally altered our perception of reality.

However, we don't seem to be calling upon something quantum when we decide to get in shape. But what if I told you that you had the ability to choose because of quantum physics?

Let's pretend, for the sake of argument, that you want to be in shape by 2025. It feels like the ultimate expression of your free will—you made a deliberate decision to set this goal, to craft a plan, to imagine a future where you become a healthier version of yourself. Your agency appears to be embodied in the simple act of making a resolution.

However, what is the practical implementation of that resolution?

What you’ve done is create a mental model of yourself—a fictitious narrative about a world where you take specific actions, like hitting the gym, eating better, and sticking to a schedule, all of which are supposed to lead to the desired effect. Within this framework, everything is clear—causes lead to effects, actions yield results.

Where is your free will, however, in this deterministic universe of causes and events that you have created for yourself?

The very resolution that feels like an act of agency—your choice to get fit—could be seen as just another event caused by the state of the universe leading up to it. You didn't choose your choice at random. It was shaped by everything that came before it—your experiences, habits, emotions, and even the momentary burst of inspiration you had at midnight on New Year’s Eve.

If prior causes ultimately determined your resolution to get fit, does free will even exist, or is our sense of agency just a useful illusion?

The question of free will

What do we mean by free will? For many, it’s the ability to say, “I could have done otherwise.” If you skipped your morning workout, the belief is that you could have chosen differently, laced up your sneakers, and gone for a jog. It’s an appealing notion—this idea that we’re free to make decisions untethered from the past, unaffected by the web of causality.

But is it tenable? Not really—not within the framework of physics as we understand it. The universe, including you in it, operates under immutable laws of cause and effect. Every action, from the trajectory of a comet to the firing of neurons in your brain, is influenced by preceding states. If we rewound the tape of reality to 11:59 PM on December 31, 2024, exactly as it was, you would inevitably make the same resolution again.

Yet, despite this deterministic backdrop, our experience of agency feels undeniable. You made the resolution, you drew up the plan, and you imagine yourself acting on it. So, how do we reconcile this apparent contradiction?

If free will isn’t about defying the laws of physics, what is it really about?

To answer this, we need to move beyond the illusion of “doing otherwise” and explore a more nuanced perspective—one that doesn’t demand an escape from causality but instead embraces it as the framework within which our choices take shape. This perspective begins to emerge when we examine the role of mental models, the narratives we construct, and the profound insights of quantum physics.

Randomness for the win?

Determinism holds that each event in the universe—including every thought, decision, and burst of inspiration—is the inevitable outcome of prior conditions. But then along comes quantum physics, which seems to break this rigid chain of causation. Suddenly, we have uncertainty principles, probabilistic wave functions, and talk of “randomness” at the subatomic level.

At first glance, this seems like a victory for free will. Dig deeper, though, and quantum randomness doesn’t straightforwardly grant us “free will.” If the laws of physics allow for truly random outcomes, it’s not clear how that randomness would translate into the will part. After all, genuine “will” implies some sense of personal agency—an internal guiding principle that decides on one course of action over another.

Randomness just means that events might unfold unpredictably, not that your mind is in charge of what happens.

So, while quantum physics might poke a hole in strict determinism, that hole doesn’t automatically prove we’re endowed with unconstrained freedom. Instead, it points us toward a subtler idea. Unpredictability at the fundamental level means no all-seeing, external observer can map out every nuance of your future choices.

That might not be the kind of absolute, metaphysical free will we sometimes wish for—where you truly “could have done otherwise” in the exact same circumstances—but it is a clue that your agency can’t be reduced to a simple matter of cause and effect plus randomness.

In other words, quantum physics doesn’t give us magical powers to break causality. Rather, it demonstrates that the universe is a dynamic, context-sensitive process—one in which you (as a complex, self-reflective system) emerge with the ability to model future scenarios, commit to goals, and revise your plans based on feedback.

Contexuality

If quantum physics doesn’t simply boil down to randomness, then what exactly is it offering us?

We imagine that particles (and people) always have well-defined properties, regardless of who’s observing them or how. Quantum contextuality overturns that notion.

Unlike flipping a coin whose outcome is determined by hidden causes, a quantum system doesn’t necessarily have a “pre-assigned” result just waiting to be revealed. Instead, how you choose to observe it defines what you can observe.

Since the measurement outcome itself is partly shaped by the measurement setup, there’s no universal vantage point from which all future events can be determined.

This contextual nature means that even if a deterministic theory underlies quantum mechanics, no external observer can exploit that determinism to see your entire future laid out. The context-sensitive rules of the game prevent the formation of a single, all-encompassing snapshot that reveals every detail.

Backaction

Quantum mechanics demonstrates that measuring a system affects the system itself—sometimes called measurement backaction.

You can’t simply peek at something without altering it. Shine light on an electron to pinpoint its position, and you inevitably change its momentum, for example.

It’s not that our tools aren’t good enough. It’s that the very nature of measurement—the extraction of information—requires interaction. That interaction changes the system. Thus, any prediction of future states must account for that alteration.

When it comes to free will, measurement backaction implies there can be no ultimate puppet master pulling your strings from “outside” the system because to monitor you with infinite precision is to change you.

Freedom emerges.

At first glance, phenomena like contextuality and measurement backaction might seem irrelevant to our day-to-day pursuit of better health, relationships, or careers. After all, subatomic uncertainties typically wash out at larger scales, where classical laws dominate.

However, these quantum concepts illuminate a deep truth about our universe—no observer stands fully apart, and no reality is fixed in a final, observer-independent script.

The universe’s underlying structure may be governed by strict laws—quantum mechanical or otherwise. But how these laws manifest at larger scales is often far from straightforward. Complex systems (like you setting a fitness goal) embody emergence, where higher-level patterns and behaviors appear that aren’t written into the fundamental laws.

Freedom arises within lawful constraints, not in spite of them. You remain physically bound by causes and effects, yet the interplay of unpredictability and feedback loops endows you with genuine agency.

Participatory reality

While we don’t typically invoke the uncertainty principle when choosing our breakfast, the spirit of quantum theory—its interplay between observer and observed—resonates at the human scale.

You are not just a passive spectator in a static universe. You’re an agent in a participatory environment. Your actions reshape your social and physical context, which in turn shapes you. This mutual shaping introduces practical unpredictability—no one can fully foresee how your micro-decisions (those small, everyday steps) might snowball into significant changes.

Perfect knowledge of your past and present is not attainable. Thus, no external observer (nor you, yourself) can generate a flawless script of your future. We experience this as creative potential—we really can adopt new habits, meet unexpected challenges, and sometimes even surprise ourselves.

Lessons for 2025

You don’t need to defy physics to be truly free. Freedom emerges from the interplay between your mental models, your body’s constraints, and the social and physical contexts that react to you. This emergent agency is what makes a well-considered resolution feel so empowering, and it gives your everyday actions real weight.

Recognize that your decisions don’t float free of causality. Instead, use this knowledge to engineer better inputs—create supportive environments, surround yourself with helpful social influences, and set realistic goals. By doing so, you shape the very causes that in turn shape you.

Just because events are causally bound doesn’t mean they’re straightforward to predict. Rather than feeling hemmed in by determinism, realize that unpredictability fosters experimentation. You can try new approaches without anyone—least of all yourself—knowing exactly what the outcome will be.

Your intentions and actions alter the environment. If your goal is to get fit in 2025, view each workout, meal choice, or rest day as part of an ongoing dialogue between you and your surroundings.

No one can predict what the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology has in store. But, as conscious agents empowered by the very principles of quantum physics, we can shape our lives, our communities, and our world through the power of our resolutions.