How Sri Lanka Can Overcome Its Economic Crisis

Over half of the world’s projected population increase is to be concentrated in Nigeria and seven other countries by 2050, according to a new report by the United Nations (UN) which puts the expected global population at eight billion next month.

The other seven countries that would account for over half of global population increase alongside Nigeria which currently has an estimated population of about 217 million are the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

The eight billion figure for the global population comes from the aggregation of the populations of all countries and areas of the world.

According to the UN’s World Population Prospects report published yesterday, to mark the World Population Day, India’s population was expected to surpass China as the most populous country in the world by 2023.

India’s population currently stands at over 1.3 billion while China’s is above 1.4 billion.

On the occasion, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged people to, “recognize our common humanity” and “marvel at advancements in health that extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates.”

“At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” the UN report quoted Guterres as saying.

The world’s population is currently growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.

However, the UN’s latest projections suggest that the global population could grow to as much as 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion by the 2080s.

UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said that this rapid growth in the global population means that combatting poverty, hunger and malnutrition will be “more difficult” moving forward.

“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional.

“Rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combatting hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult.

“Conversely, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing global population growth,” Zhenmin said.

The report also found that fertility levels have fallen in many countries over the past few decades.

On average, two-thirds of the global population live in a country or area where lifetime fertility is less than 2.1 birth per woman. The populations of over 60 countries or areas are expected to decrease by one per cent or more between 2022 and 2050, due to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated emigration rates.

By 2050, over half of the world’s projected population increase is expected to be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

In his remarks, the Director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, John Wilmoth said: “Further actions by governments aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the pace of population growth between now and mid-century, because of the youthful age structure of today’s global population.

“Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century”.

Economic crises can have various attributes that contribute to their occurrence and impact. Here are some common attributes associated with economic crises:

Financial Instability: Economic crises often arise from financial instability within a country or globally. Factors such as excessive speculation, unsustainable debt levels, asset price bubbles, or a fragile banking system can lead to a loss of confidence and trigger a crisis.

Economic Imbalances: Imbalances in key economic indicators, such as trade deficits, budget deficits, inflation, or currency fluctuations, can contribute to an economic crisis. Persistent imbalances can erode the stability of an economy and create vulnerabilities.

Sudden Shocks: External shocks, such as natural disasters, geopolitical events, commodity price fluctuations, or global economic downturns, can disrupt economic stability and precipitate a crisis. These shocks can undermine production, disrupt supply chains, and cause financial disruptions.

Overleveraging and Debt: High levels of debt, both public and private, can be a significant attribute of an economic crisis. Excessive borrowing can lead to debt burdens that become unsustainable, creating a vicious cycle of default, credit contraction, and economic contraction.

Banking and Financial Sector Weakness: Fragility in the banking and financial sector, including inadequate regulation, poor risk management, or excessive exposure to risky assets, can amplify the impact of an economic crisis. Bank failures, liquidity shortages, and credit crunches can exacerbate the downturn and undermine economic stability.

Unemployment and Inequality: Economic crises often result in a sharp rise in unemployment and widening income inequality. Job losses, reduced consumer spending, and decreased investment can further depress economic activity and create social and political unrest.

Contagion and Global Spillovers: Economic crises can spread beyond national borders, especially in an interconnected global economy. Financial contagion, where problems in one country's financial system spill over to other countries, can amplify the scale and severity of a crisis.

Government Policy and Response: The effectiveness of government policies and response mechanisms in managing an economic crisis plays a crucial role. Timely and appropriate monetary and fiscal policies, as well as measures to restore confidence, stabilize financial systems, and stimulate economic activity, can mitigate the impact of a crisis.

Social and Political Factors: Social and political factors can both contribute to and be impacted by economic crises. Socioeconomic disparities, corruption, political instability, and weak governance can create a fertile ground for an economic crisis, while the crisis itself can lead to social unrest and political upheaval.

It's important to note that economic crises can vary in their specific attributes depending on the underlying causes, geographical location, and historical context. Understanding these attributes is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to effectively respond and mitigate the impact of such crises