why chinas population is shrinking

This chart illustrates the birth and death rate trends in China over the past six decades. For the majority of this period, China experienced high birth rates. However, in 2022, the country recorded more deaths than births, resulting in a population decline for the first time in 60 years. To comprehend the significance of this situation, one must consider that China is a global manufacturing powerhouse, and its vast population plays a pivotal role in this sector. Approximately 30% of the country's economic output is attributed to manufacturing.

Now, let's examine China's population trends over the same period. Even though the country lost nearly a million people in 2022, its population remains close to its historical peak at 1.4 billion. Nevertheless, it is anticipated to decrease by nearly half by the end of this century. China's population has been influenced by its historical growth and policies. Today, China is seeking ways to stabilize its population. The challenge lies in whether these efforts can be effective.

In the 1950s, under Mao Zedong's leadership, China endured one of the deadliest famines in history, resulting in the loss of around 30 million lives. This catastrophe is reflected in the birth and death rate chart with a noticeable spike in deaths. Concurrently, the birth rate dropped, contributing to a population decline. However, in the aftermath of such crises, there was a baby boom, which, coupled with advancements in medical care, led to families having an average of six children. This surge in birth rates posed a significant challenge for the government, which recognized that the population was growing too rapidly.

The government introduced the "Later, Longer, Fewer" policy, advocating for delayed marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer children. Consequently, China's birth rate began to decline. However, it didn't reach the desired level, leading to the implementation of the strict one-child policy in 1980. This policy was enforced with severe measures, including sterilizations, IUD insertions, and induced abortions. While these measures began during the "Later, Longer, Fewer" era, they intensified under the one-child policy, resulting in the sterilization of 20 million individuals and nearly 15 million induced abortions in a single year. This policy effectively controlled population growth but had long-lasting consequences.

For a population to remain stable, each couple should have an average of 2.1 children, known as the replacement rate. China's fertility rate remained well below 2 for over three decades, and to address this, the one-child policy was finally terminated in 2016. In 2021, China allowed families to have as many children as they desired. Nevertheless, this shift hasn't produced the desired results. One key challenge is the unique 4-2-1 family structure created by the one-child policy. Many families now have one child responsible for caring for aging parents and grandparents, making it financially burdensome to have multiple children. Surveys indicate that more than 50% of young people are reluctant to have more than one child due to financial and work-related pressures.

China's population issue is not solely about birth rates; it also concerns the balance between the young and elderly. While countries with rapid population growth exhibit a pyramid-like structure, China's population pyramid shows a narrow base and a larger elderly population, which results from improved healthcare and lower fertility rates. By 2050, this pyramid is projected to become even more imbalanced, which will further diminish China's population, labor force, and pose unique challenges to the nation.

China's rapid economic growth in the 1980s attracted foreign investment, leading to manufacturing growth and exports. Although China's economy expanded significantly, it hasn't equally improved the standard of living for all its citizens. The GDP per capita remains lower than high-income countries, and a significant portion of the population, especially in rural areas, hasn't substantially benefited from economic growth. The country also lacks comprehensive safety nets to support its aging population. This slower economic growth is redefining China's role in the world as a manufacturing superpower, and it is causing resource constraints that may impact both its global influence and domestic population.

China's experience is not unique, as many Asian and European nations are encountering population declines. What sets China apart is the speed at which these changes have transpired. In just four decades, China transformed from a population-driven economic force into a world-leading economy while grappling with population control. Now that population growth has halted, China must reevaluate its future, both as a global superpower and for the well-being of its citizens.