The Refrigerant Transition

Cooling seldom features in climate headlines, yet it is one of the quietest success stories of the last decade. Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, countries are phasing down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—super-pollutant refrigerants—while retailers and manufacturers rapidly switch to ultra-low-GWP “natural” refrigerants such as carbon dioxide (R744) and propane (R290). Fully implemented, Kigali alone can avert roughly 0.4–0.5°C of warming by 2100; paired with efficiency improvements, the avoided warming can be closer to ~1°C—an enormous contribution from a single policy family [1–2].

Why this matters now

Locked-in benefits. The Kigali schedule is legally binding and now near-universal, guaranteeing deep cuts in the production and consumption of HFCs across this decade and the next [1].

Real-economy uptake. Europe’s updated F-gas regime entered into force in 2024–2025 and is already reshaping product choices with hard market-entry bans for high-GWP refrigerants in segments such as split air conditioners and heat pumps, alongside strengthened technician training and safety standards [3–4].

Retail decarbonization at scale. Supermarket refrigeration—often responsible for the majority of a store’s direct, non-supply-chain emissions—is shifting en masse to CO₂ systems, cutting leakage and energy use simultaneously [7].

What’s actually changing on the ground

Food retail and cold chains

By 2024, nearly one-third of European food retail outlets were using transcritical CO₂ systems, representing about 90,700 stores; industrial sites with CO₂ refrigeration jumped ~48% year-on-year from 2023 to 2024 [5–6]. Case studies from major chains show multi-year paybacks and durable operating-cost savings when natural refrigerants are paired with energy-efficiency upgrades [7].

Room air conditioning and small heat pumps

Policy is now forcing a rapid migration away from high-GWP HFCs in small split systems. Europe’s rules prohibit, among other steps, many higher-GWP splits from January 2025 and progressively require GWP <150 refrigerants in key sub-segments later this decade—accelerating the shift to propane (R290) and other ultra-low-GWP options [3–4]. Manufacturers and public agencies report large-scale commercialisation of R290 splits; in India, one leading R290 model has surpassed 600,000 units sold, underscoring mainstream viability in price-sensitive markets [8].

International cooperation and ambition

Beyond Kigali, the Global Cooling Pledge is aligning countries on higher appliance efficiency and wider access to sustainable cooling, aiming to slash cooling-related emissions by 68% from today by mid-century. The pledge explicitly links refrigerant transition with efficiency and passive-cooling design—turning policy into measurable load reductions on power systems [9].

System impacts that are easy to miss

Peak demand and reliability. As heatwaves intensify, cooling drives steep evening peaks. Recent analysis shows that in India, each additional degree Celsius in 2024 raised peak demand by roughly 7 GW; cleaner, more efficient cooling combined with low-GWP refrigerants is therefore a reliability strategy as much as a climate one [10].

Skills and safety. The new EU framework directly couples refrigerant phase-down with workforce training and updated safety standards (e.g., IEC 60335-2-40, -2-89), easing the transition to mildly flammable refrigerants like propane without compromising safety [4].

Investment signals. Clear, time-bound prohibitions and quota cuts reduce technology risk, allowing retailers, OEMs, and financiers to back CO₂ and propane platforms with multi-year confidence [3–4,7].

What to watch next

Scaling in emerging markets. As standards and codes update, expect fast adoption of R290 splits and CO₂ supermarket systems outside Europe, where the climate and air-quality dividends are largest [5,8].

Leakage management and end-of-life. Kigali governs production and consumption; enforcement on illegal trade and robust recovery/destruction at end-of-life will determine the realized climate benefit [1,4,7].

Efficiency + refrigerants. The biggest wins come when refrigerant transition rides alongside best-in-class efficiency and passive cooling—cutting both direct (leakage) and indirect (electricity) emissions [2,7,9].

Bottom line: The refrigerant transition is a prime example of under-the-radar climate progress. Binding rules are in place, technologies are commercial, and adoption curves are steep in multiple regions. Cooling is becoming cleaner, cheaper to operate, and more reliable—quietly removing a major slice of future warming [1–10].

References

[1] United Nations Environment Programme, Ozone Secretariat. “Kigali Amendment Ratifications: An Update.” 28 Nov. 2024. https://ozone.unep.org/kigali-amendment-ratifications-update

[2] International Energy Agency; UNEP. “Cooling Emissions and Policy Synthesis Report.” 10 July 2020. https://www.iea.org/reports/cooling-emissions-and-policy-synthesis-report

[3] European Commission – Climate Action. “Air conditioning: Climate-friendly alternatives to F-gases.” (Summary of prohibitions under Regulation (EU) 2024/573). Accessed 4 Nov. 2025. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/fluorinated-greenhouse-gases/climate-friendly-alternatives-f-gases/air-conditioning_en

[4] Regulation (EU) 2024/573 of the European Parliament and of the Council on Fluorinated Greenhouse Gases. Official Journal of the European Union, 20 Feb. 2024 (in force from 11 Mar. 2024). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:L_202400573

[5] International Institute of Refrigeration (IIR). “Increase in the Use of Natural Refrigerants in Commercial Refrigeration.” 24 Mar. 2025. https://iifiir.org/en/news/increase-in-the-use-of-natural-refrigerants-in-commercial-refrigeration

[6] ATMOsphere / NaturalRefrigerants.com. “Nearly One-Third of European Food Retail Outlets Used Transcritical CO₂ Refrigeration Systems in 2024.” 6 Mar. 2025. https://naturalrefrigerants.com/news/nearly-one-third-of-european-food-retail-outlets-used-transcritical-co2-refrigeration-systems-in-2024/

[7] Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA). “Cooling the Climate Crisis: Why Investing in Sustainable Refrigeration Is Crucial for Decarbonising Supermarkets.” 26 June 2025. https://eia-international.org/report/cooling-the-climate-crisis/

[8] Green Cooling Initiative (GIZ). “R290 Split Air Conditioners – Resource Guide (Update 2025).” 2 Apr. 2025. https://www.green-cooling-initiative.org/fileadmin/Publications/2025_FINAL_ResourceGuide_R290_Split_AC_update.pdf

[9] UNEP Cool Coalition. “Global Cooling Pledge.” Accessed 4 Nov. 2025. https://coolcoalition.org/global-cooling-pledge/

[10] International Energy Agency. “Staying cool without overheating the energy system.” Commentary, 28 July 2025. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/staying-cool-without-overheating-the-energy-system

Bio

Futoshi Tachino is an environmental writer who believes in the power of small, positive actions to protect the planet. He writes about the beauty of nature and offers practical tips for everyday sustainability, from reducing waste to conserving energy.