The Quiet Transport Revolution

by Futoshi Tachino

When most people picture the electric transition, they see cars. Yet the biggest and least acknowledged gains are happening on two and three wheels. In dozens of countries, small electric motorcycles, scooters, and rickshaws are cutting oil demand, shrinking urban air pollution, and saving drivers money — often much faster than electric cars can. In 2024, two- and three-wheelers (2/3-Ws) were the most electrified road segment on earth: over 9% of the global fleet was already electric, and roughly 15% of new 2/3-W sales were electric — about 10 million vehicles that year [1, 2].

What changed

Three forces converged: rapidly falling powertrain costs, the spread of battery-swapping and fast-charge options for high-utilization riders, and enabling policies in price-sensitive markets. The International Energy Agency notes that these factors make 2/3-W electrification one of the quickest ways to cut urban transport emissions in emerging and developing economies [2].

Where the switch is happening fastest

India

India is now the world’s largest market for electric three-wheelers. In 2024, e-3Ws reached a record 57% share of three-wheeler sales; in 2025, that climbed to ~60% for January–September [1, 3]. Electric two-wheeler sales also passed one million units by October 2025, marking a mainstream foothold in the everyday commuter segment [4, 5].

China and broader Asia

China still anchors the global stock of electric 2/3-Ws, even as its sales share fluctuated in recent years; the installed base remains enormous and continues to expand into Southeast Asia [1]. Indonesia, for example, has rolled out tax breaks and other incentives to catalyze local production and uptake, and major manufacturers have announced charging-network and factory investments to serve a motorcycle-dominant market [6, 7].

Africa (with Kenya at the forefront)

Across East Africa, electric boda-boda (motorcycle taxi) pilots have scaled into early commercial deployments, supported by pay-as-you-go financing and abundant renewable power on the grids. Kenya’s government has begun standard-setting and permitting reforms to ease rollout; regional operators now run sizable electric fleets and are experimenting with battery-swapping depots along urban corridors [8, 9].

Why it matters

Rapid emissions impact. Early adoption of electric 2/3-Ws accounted for nearly 10% of all transport-sector CO₂ avoided by EVs in 2023, a disproportionately large contribution relative to their energy use and cost [10].

Air-quality and health. Two-stroke engines and poorly maintained small ICE bikes are intense urban polluters. Electrifying the high-mileage share of these vehicles reduces particulate and NOx exposure in dense neighborhoods; the WHO links ambient air pollution to ~4.2 million premature deaths annually worldwide [11] — a burden heavily concentrated in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Energy security and affordability. Electric 2/3-Ws cut household fuel bills and import dependence. In many cities, battery swapping lets commercial riders avoid downtime while paying a predictable per-kilometer energy price, a key enabler for taxi and delivery fleets [2].

The next accelerants

Target the highest-mileage users. Prioritize finance and infrastructure for taxi and delivery riders, where each electric kilometer displaces the most fuel and pollution [2].

Make finance frictionless. Pay-as-you-ride and asset-backed loans lower entry barriers for informal-sector workers (e.g., Kenya’s boda-boda drivers) [8].

Standardize batteries and swaps. Interoperability standards reduce cost and vendor lock-in, speeding station build-outs (Kenya and Indonesia are actively working on standards and incentives) [6, 9].

Track the stock, not just sales. Policymakers should monitor the fleet of 2/3-Ws — where the climate and health benefits actually accrue — and plan electricity, curb space, and road safety accordingly [12].

Bottom line

This is a sustainability win hiding in plain sight. By quietly electrifying the vehicles people actually use most, cities from Delhi to Jakarta to Nairobi are banking fast, cheap air-quality and climate gains — well before electric cars dominate every street. The data show that this shift is no longer speculative; it is structural, scalable, and accelerating [1–5, 8–12].

References (full details & URLs)

[1] International Energy Agency (IEA). “Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles” in Global EV Outlook 2025. 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/trends-in-other-light-duty-electric-vehicles

[2] International Energy Agency (IEA). Global EV Outlook 2025. Paris: IEA, 2025. PDF: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7ea38b60-3033-42a6-9589-71134f4229f4/GlobalEVOutlook2025.pdf

[3] Autocar Professional. “EV share of 3W market at 60% in January–September.” 7 Oct. 2025. https://www.autocarpro.in/analysis/ev-share-of-3w-market-at-60-in-january-september-cng-share-drops-to-25-129105

[4] EV Reporter. “India’s Electric Vehicle sales trend | October 2025.” 2 Nov. 2025. https://evreporter.com/indias-electric-vehicle-sales-trend-october-2025/

[5] The Times of India. “Festive green spark: EVs hit record in Oct; E2W sales cross 1 million in 2025.” 3 Nov. 2025. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/festive-green-spark-evs-hit-record-no-in-oct-e2w-sales-cross-1-million-in-2025/articleshow/125040276.cms

[6] Reuters. “Indonesia issues more tax incentives for EV sales.” 21 Feb. 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/indonesia-issues-more-tax-incentives-ev-sales-2024-02-21/

[7] Reuters. “VinFast plans to install up to 100,000 EV charging stations across Indonesia, minister says.” 11 Mar. 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vinfast-plans-install-up-100000-ev-charging-stations-across-indonesia-minister-2025-03-11/

[8] Africa E-Mobility Alliance. Africa E-Mobility Report 2025. Sept. 2025. https://africaema.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Africa-E-Mobility-Report-2025.pdf

[9] Kenya Investment Authority. E-Mobility Sector Investment Prospectus. Oct. 2025. https://www.investkenya.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Emobility-Sector-Investment-Prospectus-1.pdf

[10] International Energy Agency (IEA). “Outlook for emissions reductions” in Global EV Outlook 2024. 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-emissions-reductions

[11] World Health Organization. “Air pollution: transport and health risks.” Accessed 4 Nov. 2025. https://www.who.int/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/healthy-urban-environments/transport/health-risks

[12] International Energy Agency (IEA). “Electric two-/three-wheelers stock in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024–2030 (chart).” 10 Apr. 2025. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-two-three-wheelers-stock-in-the-stated-policies-scenario-2024-2030

Bio

Futoshi Tachino is an environmental writer who believes in the power of small, positive actions to protect the planet. He writes about the beauty of nature and offers practical tips for everyday sustainability, from reducing waste to conserving energy.

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