The Long-Awaited Conversation Between Scholz and Putin

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin have had today ( Friday 15.11.24) a critical conversation on the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Initiated by Berlin, the hour-long discussion had sharp differences in tone and approach between Scholz, pressing Putin for peace, and the Russian leader, insistent that his position on territorial realities and geopolitical interests would not budge. Described as “frank” by the Kremlin, the exchange came in a moment underscoring the wider complexities of the global response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and attendant humanitarian and geopolitical crises.

A Call Two Years in the Making

The phone call was the first direct contact between Scholz and Putin since December 2022.

Over the period of those two years, the war in Ukraine dramatically spiraled-with a serious reshaping of Europe’s security architecture-together with an unprecedentedly hard deterioration of relations between Russia and the West. The call was carefully prepared for by the German government, including consultations with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and other G7 partners. It was a strategic timing-after the U.S. midterm elections but before the forthcoming G20 summit in Brazil, where Russia will be represented by its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, not Putin himself.

According to Scholz’s office, the German chancellor used the opportunity to condemn Russia’s aggression unequivocally and urge an immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. Scholz emphasized Germany’s steadfast support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and underlined the need to continue pursuing a negotiated solution that would guarantee a just and lasting peace. The discussion underlined the European Union’s firm commitment to Kyiv and Germany’s determination to stand by Ukraine “as long as necessary.”

That was the message that allies like Poland wanted to hear from Scholz. The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, immediately applauded Scholz for underlining that “nothing about Ukraine” would be decided “without Ukraine.” It is a promise that underlines one of the most significant elements of Western diplomacy, specifically that Ukraine’s centrality must be preserved in whatever peace process may eventually emerge.

Moscow’s Position: Unyielding and Calculated

The Kremlin readout of the conversation offered another tone altogether. He repeated Russia’s preconditions for any prospective peace settlement, saying agreements must account for “new territorial realities” and take into consideration Russia’s security concerns. The wording suggests Moscow intends to hold onto annexed Ukrainian territories, a proposition Kyiv and its Western allies flatly reject. Also, Putin’s insistence on the “root causes” of the war — framed very often in terms of NATO’s expansion eastward and the threat this constitutes to Russian sovereignty — offers little room for compromise.

While the Kremlin sounded conciliatory, it made clear that negotiations would have to be on Russian terms. Putin’s rhetoric also tried to shift blame onto NATO, which he characterized as “aggressive and anti-Russian.” This kind of rhetoric forms part of a wider narrative emanating from Moscow, where its military actions are being framed as a form of defense against Western incursion.

The Humanitarian Toll and Winter’s Approach

Timing is everything: the call comes at a time when Ukraine is seriously preparing for its third winter of war, with Russian airstrikes already having wrecked essential infrastructure, including energy systems, thereby worsening the humanitarian situation. The UN has expressed its deep concern over the consequences of further attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. According to Matthias Schmale, UN head in Ukraine, damage to two-thirds of the country’s energy facilities has taken place, and conditions are expected to be “far worse than last year.” Humanitarian agencies scramble to put winter aid for millions out against freezing temperatures coupled with power shortages.

In recent weeks, Russia’s escalation of drone and missile attacks has contributed to fraying Ukrainian resilience. Cities such as Odessa have been subjected to strikes, the most recent of which killed one person and injured ten. The increasing reliance on a low-cost but greatly destructive form of warfare-on the part of combatants-drone warfare-has increased fears of a protracted conflict with heightening civilian casualties.

Beyond its borders, the reverberations of this conflict continue to resound on the world stage. Reports this week emerged about North Korean troops engaging in combat duty jointly with Russian forces stationed in the Kursk region. This is a grave development that underlines the growing extent of the military alliances Russia is entering into, and the potential for further destabilization in the region.

Larger contexts are similarly fraught with energy politics. Austria, dependent on Russian natural gas, is bracing for an imminent cutoff of supplies due to a dispute between Gazprom and Austrian energy company OMV. This latest energy shock underlines the vulnerabilities of European nations still dependent on Russian hydrocarbons despite efforts since the start of the war to diversify energy sources.

Scholz’s Balancing Act

It was a call that mirrored the precarious balancing act that Scholz has had to perform between diplomacy and principled opposition to Russian aggression. In advance of the call with Putin, Scholz had spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to align messaging and make sure his efforts were harnessed in concert with those of Kyiv. And afterward, he was set to brief Zelensky and other European leaders on the results of that call-a unified approach of Western allies if ever there was one.

Domestically, Scholz is under pressure to sustain Germany’s stalwart support for Ukraine amid increasingly entrenched economic and political headwinds within Germany. Recently, the collapse of Germany’s coalition government put a question mark behind ongoing military and financial aid to Ukraine. Be that as it may, Scholz promised further funding, including a proposed €3 billion package for 2024, added to nearly €8 billion already allocated this year.

Yet at the same time, uncertainty about US policy weighs heavily. Given that the previous president, Donald Trump, had signaled a possible shift toward seeking a “deal” that would have involved territorial concessions by Ukraine, European leaders like Scholz must be acutely aware of the need to prepare for shifting dynamics in transatlantic relations.

The conversation between Scholz and Putin comes amidst broader discussions about possible diplomatic overtures between Russia and the United States. Speculation has emerged that Switzerland or other neutral countries could host talks in a bid to dial down tensions. Yet everything remains speculative for the time being, considering how entrenched the positions of Russia are, and how polarized the international environment has become.

Meanwhile, incidents involving Russian military aircraft near the NATO airspace-including recent activity over the North Sea-point to continued risks of miscalculation and accidental escalation. The reaction of the British Ministry of Defence against such incidents underscores NATO preparedness for the defense of sovereignty on behalf of its members.

Challenges and Opportunities

The conversation was not likely to immediately achieve breakthroughs, but it represented a necessary step toward keeping open channels. The discussion underlined that divisions are deep between Russia and the West and also spotlighted the critical importance of diplomacy in addressing one of the most dangerous conflicts of the 21st century.

The challenge for Scholz: how to lead Germany as the first among European equals while embracing complexity on every domestic and international front. The question for Putin: does his hardline approach bring long-term gains in influence for Russia, or does it leave the country increasingly isolated on the world stage?.

The coming winter worsens the humanitarian crisis, and a solution to the conflict becomes more urgent. But in conditions whereby the parties do not want to compromise on core issues, peace is going to be hard to get. Every diplomatic exchange, however incremental, has the potential to shape the future of the war — and the broader international order — in this delicate and volatile context.

(dpa, afp, AP, reuters)