The Afghan Exodus

Since the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban in 2021, the Afghan political and humanitarian crisis has badly affected the regional environment, with millions of Afghans continuing to flee to neighboring countries. 

Iran shares a 900-kilometer border with Afghanistan and is considered one of the most important host countries for Afghan refugees. However, recent pressures by Iranian authorities, among other factors related to regional geopolitics, have been a cause for the mass return of Afghans from Iran to their country of origin. 

While Iran has enforced the attempt to bar Afghan immigration into its country through building border walls and introducing tough immigration laws. The paper critically presents the unfolding Afghan refugee crisis in Iran regarding both refugees and the Iranian state as facing multi-dimensional challenges.

In the last couple of months, Afghans have been leaving Iran and returning home to Afghanistan in extremely large numbers. 

According to officials on the border, this mass exodus is being forced, at least partly, by external factors like the move of Pakistan to expel Afghan refugees in irregular situations. Such pressure by Pakistani authorities creates a ripple effect whereby many Afghan refugees in Iran are being forced to return to Afghanistan, even those living legally.

Meanwhile, Afghans crossing into Afghanistan from Iran have doubled in a month according to Abdullah Qayomi, who is in charge of refugees at the Islam Qala border crossing near Herat-a key border crossing. He added that daily crossings increased from 1,500 to 2,000 a day to between 3,000 and 4,500. This sudden spike coincides with the arrival of some 200,000 Afghan returnees from Pakistan, a process which started when Pakistan issued a deadline of November 1 for the expulsion of Afghan refugees.

The situation of Afghan refugees in Iran is further complicated by reports of expulsions, even among those holding legal residency status.

Many Afghans have shared detention and expulsion stories without due process, even when holding residency permits in good standing. Such is the case with Abdul Rahim Ahmadi, an Afghan who had lived in Iran for 11 years, having all his papers in good order and up to date. 

He and his nephew were detained and, for no reason at all, expelled from the country. This sudden deportation left him divided from his wife and son, who remained in Iran.

Prolonged war in Afghanistan made Iran a host for Afghan refugees for over four decades. Estimates put forward by IOM suggest that Iran is hosting close to 4.5 million Afghans. Because many Afghans have successfully been assimilated into Iranian society, it is often very hard to distinguish Afghans from Iranians. Afghans in Iran are, however burdened with a number of challenges continuing to worsen partly due to the aggressive immigration policies and ramped up enforcement activities of the host country.

The Iranian government also cited its inability to absorb large numbers of Afghan refugees, while it has been instituting increasingly harsh measures to stem the migration flows. 

The border wall currently under construction by Iran with Afghanistan is part of the country's measures to thwart the entry of Afghan migrants. According to General Nozar Nemati, deputy commander of Iran's ground forces, a further 50 kilometers of wall construction is planned to more greatly secure the country's borders. This is part of an extended measure against illegal immigration and the guarantee of national security at the border.

Pressure on Afghan refugees to leave Iran started to grow after the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban in 2021. 

As a matter of fact, this political turn has widened migration flows toward Iran, as many Afghans tried to escape from that uncertain and repressive regime. The Iranian government estimates that more than 2.7 million Afghan refugees resident in Iran have legal status and represent 97 percent of all legal migrants in the country. 

However, estimates put the total number of Afghan migrants in Iran, both legal and illegal, at between six to seven million.

The Economic and Social Impact of Afghan Migration in Iran

This is not to say that Afghan immigrants have come in huge flows and have put undue pressure on Iran's resources and infrastructure. 

Economic hardships, apart from international sanctions, have tightened the noose around the economy internally due to political reasons; the accommodation of several million Afghan refugees is becoming unwieldy. A border wall that Iran has decided to build and the adoption of tight immigration policies are expressions of concern regarding the socio-economic and security repercussions of mass migration.

Notwithstanding the difficulties inherent in such an arrangement, Afghan refugees have contributed to the economy of Iran through a labor supply that is handy in agriculture and construction, or other forms of manual labor. Many Afghans are long-standing residents of Iran, rearing families and contributing citizens within their localities. While this is the case, in recent times, the Iranian government has made efforts to imbue Afghan migrants with an atmosphere of uncertainty and fear by putting many of them before the prospect of deportation or forced returns to Afghanistan, where the security situation continues to be precarious.

While Iran faces its own Afghan refugee crisis, neighboring Pakistan has long been a key actor in the regional migration context. 

In response to the resurgent Taliban forces in Afghanistan, the country of Pakistan has issued a deadline for the expulsion of Afghan refugees who are living illegally in the country. This decision forced around 200,000 Afghans to move back to Afghanistan in recent months and stretched the already fragile infrastructure and resources of Afghanistan further.

Mass deportations of Afghans from Pakistan have resulted in a humanitarian crisis in border crossings, as thousands try to return under very distressing circumstances to Afghanistan. 

Many have lived in Pakistan for years if not decades and are now being forced to leave behind their homes, livelihoods, and communities. This was an unexpected rise of returnees into Afghanistan, which made the border authorities and humanitarian organizations in the locality be very confused to provide food, shelter, and medical attention.

Among various international organizations, UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration have been working in endeavoring to meet the needs of Afghan returnees, from Iran and Pakistan. 

These agencies have provided emergency assistance both at border-crossing points and in areas of high returnee concentration. But the scale of the crisis far outstrips the available resources, and many Afghans are returning to a country that is singularly ill-equipped to support them.

They face a number of challenges, but their majors are access to jobs, healthcare, and education. 

Afghanistan's economy, weakened by decades of war, has been further destabilized by the return of the Taliban into power. The freezing of Afghan assets by the international community and sanctions imposed on the Taliban government have led to economic collapse with little prospect for recovery in the near term.

Afghan Migration and the Quest for Regional Stability: What Next?

The Afghan refugee crisis in Iran and Pakistan indeed underlines much of the complex interrelationship that exists between migration, geopolitics, and national security. 

As Iran and Pakistan embark on trying to contain the flow of migrants from Afghanistan, there is a need for the international community to carefully look at the long-term implications. Such mass return of Afghans to their homeland brings into question the stability of Afghanistan-a country which is highly divided on ethnic, political and ideological grounds.

How the Afghan migration crisis is handled will mean everything for the future of Afghans and that of the region. Humanitarian aid is as crucial as diplomatic engagement with the Taliban and efforts toward the economic recovery of Afghanistan to tackle the very roots of migration and ensure Afghan returnees receive what they need to rebuild their lives.

The mass repatriation of Afghan refugees from Iran and Pakistan reveals the extent of the challenge faced by the region following the Taliban's rise to power. 

The construction of border walls and the implication of rigid immigration policies demonstrate the degree to which the struggle to cope with the reality of large-scale migration has overwhelmed them, while the expulsion of Afghan refugees by Pakistan has further worsened the humanitarian crisis at its borders. 

This means that the international community has to be proactive and address the needs of Afghan returnees, support the recovery in Afghanistan, and ensure stability in the region in the face of these continuing challenges.

The future of millions of Afghans hangs in the balance. It is now up to successive efforts by governments, international organizations, and civil society that the root causes of migration are tackled with a view to peace and stability in the region by offering them safety, security, and opportunity within the homeland or outside.

(reuters, afp)