Salal Dam Release Sparks Cross-Border Flood Fears Between India and Pakistan
Gate openings, lack of official data and heavy monsoon forecasts put Chenab basin on alert; hydrologists warn large surges would first impact India but sustained rains risk downstream flooding.
By Real contentPublished 4 months ago • 5 min read
The Salal Dam in India has come under discussion after repeated concerns in Pakistan’s local media and on social platforms that the release of hundreds of thousands of cusecs of water from this dam could once again trigger flooding in Punjab’s Chenab River.
Earlier this year in May, the Salal Dam—located on the Chenab River in Indian-administered Kashmir—made headlines when, following the Pahalgam attack on tourists, one of its gates was opened. According to Indian media, the move was aimed at restricting the flow of water to Pakistan after the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
This time, however, Indian news agency PTI on August 30 shared a video showing that all gates of the Salal Dam had been opened. PTI reported that the decision was taken because heavy rainfall had raised the water level of the Chenab River, and authorities were closely monitoring the situation to prevent flooding in surrounding areas.
On the other hand, on Sunday, Punjab’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Director General Irfan Ali Kathia referred to the opening of Salal Dam’s spillways, saying that no official information had been conveyed by India regarding the release of water into the Chenab or other rivers.
He added that the Salal Dam is located 78 kilometers from Head Marala in Pakistan.
What is the importance of Salal Dam on the Chenab River?
The Salal Dam is a hydropower project in Indian-administered Kashmir, generating electricity that is supplied not only to Jammu and Kashmir but also to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, and Rajasthan.
The dam is situated on the Chenab River in Jammu’s Reasi district and has a generation capacity of about 690 megawatts.
Disputes over the Salal Dam began soon after the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, mediated by the World Bank, when India initiated hydropower projects on the western rivers. Pakistan feared these projects could reduce water flow into its territory. The dispute over Salal Dam was resolved in 1978 through negotiations, with an agreement that India could not alter its design without mutual consent.
Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto opposed the agreement, fearing India might use dams on the western rivers as a weapon of war—by blocking water to dry up rivers or releasing it suddenly to flood Pakistan.
India, however, has maintained that these dams are meant for power generation only, not for water storage.
According to Pakistani water expert Dr. Hassan Abbas, Salal Dam is essentially a hydropower project with very limited storage capacity compared to large dams.
He explained that its spillways can discharge up to 800,000 cusecs of water. “If such a discharge is made, the water level drops in less than a few hours.”
He added that water released from Salal Dam takes several hours to reach Pakistan, and by the time it enters Marala Headworks, the flood surge is much weaker and more spread out. In his view, such a small flood does not pose any real danger.
Dr. Abbas emphasized that the opening of spillways at Salal Dam does not, by itself, pose a major threat to Pakistan. The risk arises only if heavy monsoon rainfall simultaneously brings in excessive inflow behind the dam. “In that case, the cause would be a natural calamity, not the dam itself—because even without the dam, that water would flow into Pakistan.”
He concluded that a major flood risk in Pakistan could only emerge if continuous monsoon rains persist, even after Indian dams are emptied.
Lack of Information and Concerns in Pakistan
PDMA spokesperson Mazhar Hussain told BBC Urdu that while Indian media reported the opening of Salal Dam gates, no official confirmation has been shared regarding the release of 800,000 cusecs of water.
He recalled that following the Pahalgam attack, India had unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which Pakistan later challenged in an international arbitration court.
Mazhar Hussain noted that despite strained relations between the two countries, “If such a huge quantity of water had been released, it would have already reached by now.” Nevertheless, authorities in Pakistan remain on alert for potential flooding.
He added that since official information is not being shared, Pakistani authorities also rely on cross-border media reports to assess risks.
Pakistani officials are also aware that many dams on India’s eastern rivers are already full, with forecasts of further rainfall.
On September 1, India’s Flood Forecast Monitoring Directorate issued a bulletin highlighting 19 locations with severe flood conditions and 32 sites with above-normal water flows. The Indian Meteorological Department has also predicted heavy rainfall over the next two days in Jammu and Kashmir’s Reasi and adjoining areas, raising the risk of flooding in the Chenab, Jhelum, and Tawi Rivers.
Would India Suffer More from Opening Dams?
Experts argue that opening dams on Punjab’s rivers could ultimately harm India itself.
It should be noted that earlier in April, following the Pahalgam attack, India had suspended the six-decade-old Indus Waters Treaty. Moreover, in May this year, both countries had exchanged cross-border attacks. India accused Pakistan of involvement in the Pahalgam attack, while Pakistan strongly denied the allegations.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office stated that India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty was a serious violation of international law.
Is There a Risk of Another Flood in Punjab?
Pakistan’s former Indus Water Commissioner Syed Jamaat Ali Shah explained that under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is obliged to inform Pakistan immediately whenever unusual river flows occur.
He acknowledged that while India did share some flood-related data this year, it was not provided in a timely manner. “Information should have been shared continuously while pressure was building on the rivers, not after it subsided.”
This, he said, weakened Pakistan’s early warning and rescue system. However, he admitted that the massive inflow of monsoon rainwater could not have been stopped by India, nor could Pakistan have diverted it.
Shah stressed that both governments should exchange flood data on humanitarian grounds, regardless of treaty suspensions. “Unilateral suspension cannot be maintained,” he warned, adding that the lack of timely information could create challenges for Pakistan.
Water expert Hassan Abbas pointed out that India’s major dams—Baglihar (Chenab), Pong (Beas), and Thein (Ravi)—have larger storage capacity and could release bigger surges.
However, he cautioned that “if India were to release a shock wave of water from these reservoirs, it would first cause damage within India itself before affecting Pakistan.”
He remarked that while the narrative of India’s “water aggression” is often raised politically, the scientific reality is different.
When asked if Punjab’s rivers might flood again, Abbas warned that the risk cannot be ruled out: “The first flood usually soaks into the ground as the soil is dry, but if more cloudbursts and heavy monsoon rains occur, new flooding will take place.”
He added, “If rainfall matches the intensity of the earlier spell, the situation could become even more severe than before.”
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