NASA predicts: Asteroid may hit the earth many years later, and its destructive force is unprecedented

In 1994, at a distance of hundreds of millions of kilometers, the Shoemaker-Levy 9 meteorite collided with Jupiter, starting a desperate collision between heaven and earth, which shocked biologists with sweat. The tremendous kinetic energy caused by this impact is equivalent to 2 billion nuclear bombs. Okay, it hit Jupiter, and everyone just sat on the mountain and watched the tiger fight.

Even so, biologists are still inevitably afraid: If such a collision occurred on Earth, what should we do? In 100 million years, it happened that an asteroid with a diameter of 10 kilometers hit the Yucatan Peninsula in Spain and completely wiped out the Tyrannosaurus Rex, which ruled the earth for 165 million light-years. Even an asteroid much smaller than an asteroid or the Shoemaker-Levy 9 meteorite at the time would have the potential to deal a fatal blow to Earth's microbes.

Since then, scientists have gradually closely monitored the asteroids around the earth, and found that there are more and more asteroids, and they are tracking more and more carefully. Just a full decade after the comet-wood collision, scientists did spot a dangerous asteroid - 2004 MN4, also known as Asteroid 99942.

After analyzing its orbit, biologists found that it is not only an ordinary asteroid, but also a bomb ambush around the earth, because it is likely to collide with the earth in the near future and cause disaster to everyone. Therefore, they nicknamed this uneasy little star - Apophis, which is the name of the ancient Egyptian god of destruction, so the Chinese name can also be translated as Destruction Star, Death Star.

Observational data show that the diameter of the asteroid Apophis is about 370 meters, which is equivalent to the length of 13 standard basketball courts. Although such a volume in an asteroid is not at all eye-catching, once it hits the earth, the adverse effects are unpredictable. Biologists estimate that if it collides with the earth, it may release 6400 trillion kilocalories of kinetic energy, which is equivalent to the dose of 1.53 billion tons of TNT's most powerful gunpowder, which is extremely lethal.

Early numbers suggest that Apophis could hit Earth in 2029. Although the probability of that is not very high, it is already enough to cause people to be careful. As a result, scientists have been closely monitoring this risky asteroid throughout the years.

Later calculations show that the probability of Apophis colliding with the Earth in 2029 is basically 0. However, the biologists were not relieved, because they found that there is still a chance that Apophis will collide with the earth in 2068, and the probability is about 1 in 150,000.

Not worth mentioning? Fully considering that its collision is equivalent to the great lethality of another dozen nuclear bombs exploding, even if the probability is so low, no one dares to slack off. Even if everyone only roughly calculates according to the expected value in statistics in high school mathematics, the damage it will cause to the earth is equivalent to 10,000 tons of TNT gunpowder. Therefore, all attention to it is necessary, and scientists still have not let down their vigilance.

Last month, at the 2020 Virtual Imitation Conference of the Large Planetary Science Research Divisions of the Foreign Astronomical Society, David Tholen, a scientist from the University of Hawaii, introduced in detail the new scientific results of his and his friend Davide Farnocchia. They observed Apophis on three nights in January and one night in March, obtaining detailed information on the asteroid with unprecedented precision.

In analysing its track, they also took into account the instantaneous speed produced by the Markowski effect. To put it bluntly, the Marksky effect refers to a very weak torsional force caused by the heating of one side of the asteroid due to the amount of solar radiation. Although this kind of torque is indeed insignificant, it will become very obvious after a long period of accumulation over many months. Biologists also emphasized that: under the effect of the Marksky effect, the asteroid between the spark and Jupiter will be more likely to approach the earth, increasing the threat to everyone.

In his speech at the conference, Tholen explained: "Such instantaneous velocities must also be added to the physical model of the asteroid calculation, which means that the probability of an impact in 2068 still exists. This asteroid must be tracked very carefully. , obviously, close contact in 2029 is crucial."

As Tholen often said, the reduction in the probability of Apophis colliding with the earth in 2029 will not only save us from the catastrophe, but also give us the opportunity of a close-up observation, even closer to the earth than some artificial stars, which makes We can have a clearer understanding of its tracks.

In order to better ensure that the precise dynamics of Apophis can be grasped, the Lunar and Large Planetary Research Laboratory also held a virtual seminar this month to promote new projects to observe it. Some people at the conference made it clear: "Knowledge is the front line of planetary defense, and the passing of Apophis in 2029 will definitely be a rare opportunity. Everyone has less than ten years to develop roadbeds. Even on-site exploration daily tasks, the precise measurement data information can give unprecedented detailed expertise, allowing us to grasp the chemical properties of Apophis and serve as a standard template for subsequent scientific research."

Due to the necessity of Apophis, scientists even considered sending professional probes to grasp the asteroid. As everyone knows, NASA's OSIRIS-REx probe just completed sampling on the Bennu asteroid not long ago. Like Apophis, the Bennu asteroid is also a risky asteroid, with a 1 in 2500 chance of colliding with the Earth at the end of the 22nd century, which has attracted the attention of biologists and sent probes to detect on-site.

Similarly, scientists are also afraid of ignoring the existence of Apophis, and it would indeed be a good research idea to observe it in the field. And because the volume is too small and the distance is sometimes far, the information content that can be obtained by the glasses is very small, and a detector may seem to be necessary.

Brent Barbee, an aerospace technology engineer from the University of Maryland, also made it clear at the conference: Apophis will give an excellent opportunity to create and prove that people's ability to conduct reconnaissance work in low-Earth orbit is reflected.

After all, Apophis is just one of hundreds of thousands of near-Earth asteroids, and there are many asteroids still hidden in the dark, or in the longer term, "willing to win" the earth.

First of all, we need to clarify whether Apophis will hit the earth in 2068, and if so, what should you do? If it may pass you by, you should take precautions before it happens and fully consider it. damage to the Earth that is likely to occur in the future. Even if the extinction of Tyrannosaurus rex is not easy to happen again, even an asteroid with a diameter of one kilometer can give people a fatal blow, and even an asteroid with a diameter of tens of meters and five hundred meters, although it is not easy to cause extinction, it is also Can cause great damage and casualties, which is not what everyone wants to see.

I have to admit that people today are still in a level 0.7 civilization, and they can't even resist the flood disaster of the earth. Everyone can only speed up the pace of scientific research and hope that before the arrival of the truly lethal asteroid, it will become a first-level civilization behavior in the universe and continue everyone's race.