In Maduro’s Capture, Russia Sees a Great-Power Rival Act with Impunity

The world watched in early 2026 as U.S. special forces struck in Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro. It was a dramatic move that upended politics in Caracas — and sent shockwaves through Moscow.
For Russia, Maduro wasn’t just an ally; he was a key piece in a global chess game stretching from Latin America to the Middle East. His capture has forced Russian strategists to reconsider how far they can project power — and what it means when a rival acts seemingly without consequence.
A Blow to Russian Influence
Venezuela has long been one of Russia’s few footholds in the Western Hemisphere. Moscow supplied weapons, energy investments, loans, and political backing to Maduro. The goal was simple: counterbalance U.S. influence and maintain a strategic ally near American borders.
Maduro’s capture has changed that calculus. Russia’s foreign ministry condemned the operation as “armed aggression” and demanded respect for Venezuela’s sovereignty. At the same time, Moscow backed Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader, framing it as support for Venezuela’s self-determination.
But behind the formal statements, analysts suggest Moscow is feeling the sting. The U.S. operation was fast and effective — a stark contrast to Russia’s costly, prolonged campaigns elsewhere. For many, it exposed gaps in Russia’s ability to defend its allies abroad.
The Kremlin’s Dilemma
Inside Russia, commentators and analysts are debating what Maduro’s capture says about global power dynamics. Some see it as a glaring demonstration of U.S. military reach. Others point out the hypocrisy of international law, given Russia’s own record in Ukraine.
But the underlying concern is strategic. Venezuela was one of the few places where Russia could claim a geopolitical win outside Europe and the Middle East. Losing leverage over Caracas diminishes Russia’s influence in energy markets, political alliances, and the narrative of great-power competition.
A New Era of Great-Power Competition
Russian experts are framing the event as evidence that international norms are eroding. In their view, powerful nations now act where it suits them, regardless of global rules — a logic Russia often uses to justify its own interventions.
The U.S. capture of Maduro, framed as a law-enforcement operation targeting corruption and drug trafficking, has inadvertently reinforced Moscow’s messaging: great powers act with impunity. It’s a convenient narrative for Russian state media, even if the reality exposes Russia’s own limitations.
Economic and Strategic Consequences
Maduro’s removal isn’t just political; it has economic ramifications for Russia. Caracas was part of OPEC+ and home to joint energy ventures. U.S. access to Venezuelan resources could impact oil markets, squeezing Moscow’s budget further.
Other projects, from weapons sales to industrial partnerships, now face uncertainty. What was once a partnership built on mutual opposition to the U.S. may now be a casualty of American assertiveness.
Domestic Perception in Russia
How Russians perceive the operation matters as much as the operation itself. Some voices call for a tougher stance to defend Moscow’s allies. Others acknowledge the gap between Russian and American capabilities.
This debate influences both public sentiment and the Kremlin’s policy decisions. It shapes how Russians see their country’s role in the world — whether as a global power able to project influence, or a state constrained by geography, economy, and international reaction.
What This Means for Global Politics
Maduro’s capture is more than a headline. It signals a shift in global power dynamics. For the U.S., it shows the willingness to project force far from home. For Russia, it underscores limits in influence and credibility.
Moscow may continue to use this event in propaganda and rhetoric, but the reality is stark: words without action may not sustain alliances or deter rivals. The event also raises questions about the rules-based international system. If powerful countries intervene militarily at will, what does that mean for global stability?
The Takeaway
Russia’s reaction to Maduro’s capture reflects a broader truth: modern power is measured not just by intent, but by capability. Russia may want to project global influence, but when rivals act decisively, even long-standing allies can be lost.
Maduro’s removal also highlights a changing world order. Great powers no longer operate in isolated theaters. Every move, whether in Latin America or elsewhere, is scrutinized and reverberates globally.
For Moscow, the message is clear: ambitions must match capability. For the world, it’s a reminder that power without action is only potential — while decisive, well-resourced rivals can act with apparent impunity.