Future Perspective on Working Offshore in the Next Five Years

The offshore energy sector is at a pivotal moment, with projections indicating significant growth and transformation by 2030, particularly in the context of the global energy transition. This report synthesizes current trends, projections, and challenges to provide a comprehensive outlook for working offshore over the next five years, from April 2025 to April 2030. The analysis focuses on job opportunities, sector shifts, policy implications, and workforce transition, drawing on authoritative sources such as Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), Robert Gordon University (RGU), and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Current Landscape and Job Growth Projections

As of April 2025, the offshore energy sector employs over 150,000 people directly and indirectly in the UK, with oil and gas dominating, accounting for almost 80% of these jobs, or approximately 120,500 roles (Offshore energy sector job opportunities could increase 50% by 2030 with supportive policy). However, research suggests a transformative shift is underway, with the potential for the workforce to grow by nearly 50% to 225,000 jobs by 2030, driven by expanding roles in renewables such as offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This growth is contingent on successful energy transition policies and increased investment, with reports indicating that new renewable jobs could outnumber oil and gas roles if these conditions are met (New report shows the clock is ticking for energy jobs).

Globally, the demand for offshore wind jobs is expected to triple by 2030, with turbine manufacturing and installation accounting for significant job growth, potentially creating a “hiring haven” as oil and gas employment declines (Global demand for offshore wind jobs to triple by 2030). This shift is supported by ambitious targets, such as the EU’s revised Renewable Energy Directive, which sets a goal of at least 42.5% renewables by 2030, requiring installed wind capacity to grow to over 500 GW (Offshore renewable energy).

The IEA notes that oil and gas demand is expected to peak by 2030 under current policy settings, with a potential 45% decline by 2050 if national pledges are met, and over 75% decline in a 1.5°C scenario, indicating a shift away from long-lead-time projects by 2030 (Oil and gas industry faces moment of truth). Conversely, offshore wind is projected to supply 13% of electricity by 2050, with 14% average annual growth from 2019, highlighting its rising importance (Ocean's future to 2050: Energy).

An interesting detail is the industrial synergy: ocean energy technologies, including wave and tidal converters, are emerging rapidly, leveraging supply chains from hydropower, shipbuilding, wind turbine manufacturing, and offshore oil and gas, which could bolster job opportunities in these areas (Offshore renewable energy).

Policy Implications and Risks

The realization of these projections is not guaranteed and depends heavily on policy support. The UK government’s recent consultations, such as plans to put the North Sea at the heart of Britain’s clean energy future, aim to create tens of thousands more jobs in offshore renewables by 2030, but fiscal policies like the Energy Profits Levy ending in 2030 introduce uncertainty (Government to unleash the North Sea’s clean energy future). RGU’s analysis of over 6,560 pathways for the UK offshore energy industry found that fewer than 0.3% meet “just and fair” transition principles, underscoring the need for urgent political alignment (UK running out of options to achieve a ‘just and fair’ energy transition by 2030).

Risks are significant: if investment in renewables does not increase while oil and gas activities decline, up to 95,000 potential offshore energy jobs could be lost by 2030, particularly in Scotland, where the workforce could fall by 40% to below 50,000 without success in capturing opportunities (New report shows the clock is ticking for energy jobs). This highlights the delicate balance between maintaining current jobs and transitioning to a low-carbon future.

Workforce Transition and Skills Transferability

A critical aspect of this transition is the workforce’s ability to adapt. Research indicates that over 90% of the UK’s oil and gas workforce have medium to high skills transferability to adjacent energy sectors like offshore wind, CCS, and hydrogen, with around 200,000 skilled people expected to be required by 2030 to deliver on these activities (Majority of UK offshore workforce transitioning to low carbon energy by 2030). This transferability is supported by similar safety standards and training requirements, such as offshore emergency and helicopter underwater escape training, making the transition feasible for many workers (Transferring from oil and gas to an offshore wind job).

OEUK and industry initiatives, such as the Energy Skills Alliance, Skills Passport, and Connected Competence, are designed to ensure this potential is realized, focusing on retaining and retraining the workforce to meet the needs of expanding offshore energies (OEUK says RGU Report reveals now is the time to ensure future work for offshore energy workers). This approach aims to create a “just transition,” ensuring workers are not left behind as the sector evolves, with reports emphasizing the importance of re-deployment and upskilling to meet labor and skills needs (Majority of UK offshore workforce to be delivering low carbon energy by 2030).

Economic and Social Impact

The economic contribution of the offshore sector is substantial, with oil and gas alone contributing approximately £25 billion to the UK economy, supporting 1 in every 160 jobs nationwide, and around 1 in 30 jobs in Scotland, having paid £450 billion in production taxes over the past 50 years (Offshore energy sector job opportunities could increase 50% by 2030 with supportive policy). The transition to renewables could unlock £450 billion in UK energy investment by 2040, creating new opportunities for people and the economy, starting with increased capital investment from around £13 billion in 2023 to over £20 billion in the early 2030s (Offshore energy sector job opportunities could increase 50% by 2030 with supportive policy).

This shift also presents social implications, with the potential to protect and create jobs in energy communities, particularly in regions like Scotland, where the offshore workforce could increase by 25% to close to 100,000 if ambitions are met, but face significant declines without success (New report shows the clock is ticking for energy jobs). The focus on a homegrown energy transition, as outlined in OEUK’s manifesto, aims to put people at the heart of this change, building on industrial strengths and driving collaboration across sectors (Offshore energy sector job opportunities could increase 50% by 2030 with supportive policy).

In summary, the next five years offer a window of opportunity for offshore work, with significant growth projected in renewables, potentially outnumbering oil and gas roles by 2030, provided policies and investments align. The high transferability of skills from oil and gas to renewables is a key enabler, supported by industry initiatives, but risks remain if the transition falters. This period will be decisive for shaping the future of offshore energy, balancing economic contributions, job security, and environmental goals.