Future Earth: a Roadmap for low-carbon Transformation of the Global economy

one? Rapid transformation is critical

Climate change has taken place, with cities, businesses, citizens and governments suffering. In August 2018, an international research team once again stressed that once greenhouse gas emissions exceed the tipping point of the Earth system, it may trigger a domino effect.

At the current rate of emissions, the remaining carbon budget, which limits the planet's warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, is gradually decreasing and will be exhausted by 2030. Even if it is only expected to achieve the goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius, the international community needs to take unprecedented climate change action in the following four areas:

1. Greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2020 at the latest, and then about halve every 10 years, a trend known as the Global carbon Rule (Global Carbon Law).

2. The transformation of forests to other types of land such as farmland must be stopped.

3. Afforestation and strengthen the management of forests, wetlands and peatlands to improve the resilience of the ecosystem.

4. Develop safe carbon storage technology and put it into application.

About 90% of the world's cities are located along the coast and in fragile deltas. Every five-year delay in reaching a peak in global greenhouse gas emissions could lead to an additional 20 cm rise in sea levels in the future. The postponement of climate change action will pose a growing threat to the survival of low-lying island countries and many coastal populations and increase the cost of humanitarian assistance.

two? From accelerated action to exponential action

Emissions can be reduced by about 70% through the rapid dissemination of existing technologies and behavioural changes. The road map assumes that the world can achieve a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, and the solution is to accelerate transformation in the areas of energy, industry, construction, transport, food, agriculture and forestry through stronger policy combinations, stronger climate leadership, and more advanced emission reduction technologies.

1. Energy supply. 1 at the current rate of development of wind and solar energy, a 50% reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions may become a reality by 2030. In order to halve greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector (electricity and heat) by 2030, solar energy needs to grow at an annual rate of 23 per cent (about half the historical growth rate), which means that if investment increases, the solution is likely to reduce emissions at a faster rate. 2 although most people predict an increase in energy use, recent scenario projections show that, despite an increase in population, income and activity levels by 2050, global terminal energy demand is likely to be 40 per cent lower than it is today, thanks to technological innovation. By 2050, for example, more energy-efficient shared electric vehicles could reduce global transport energy demand by more than 50%, while reducing the number of vehicles on the road.

2. Climate investment transformation. 1 the transformation of the global energy system does not require a significant increase in investment. However, portfolio redistribution is inevitable. In 2020-2025, new investment in clean energy must far exceed investment in fossil energy. By 2021, green bonds will reach $1 trillion. In addition, the accelerating divestment promises to divest more than $6 trillion from funds under management as green bonds.

3. Industry and production. 1 the adoption of a circular economy approach could reduce global industrial emissions by 45% by 2050. Apple has come up with a vision of 100% recycling products. 2 heavy industries such as steel, aluminum, cement and plastics production can reduce emissions by 50% by installing efficient facilities and introducing advanced emission reduction technologies. Consumer demand is increasingly affected by artificial intelligence technologies such as e-commerce, social media, search engines, mobile devices and so on. In the next 10 years, the deep decarbonization of consumers through artificial intelligence technology will play a huge role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

4. Transportation. At present, the emission reduction technology of the transport industry has been put on the market. If the technology can be rapidly promoted, the greenhouse gas emissions of the transport industry will be reduced by 51% by 2030. Every five weeks, China adds a batch of electric buses equivalent to the entire London bus fleet (9500). According to recent news from cities, countries and automakers, the globalization of electric vehicles and the technicalization of the transportation industry are likely to be achieved between 2020 and 2030. But without strong national and urban policies (for example, a proposed deadline for phasing out internal combustion engines), the transition will slow sharply.

5. Food consumption. Reducing food waste for billions of people and guiding them from high-fat, high-meat consumption to a healthier plant-based diet will significantly reduce emissions from food consumption. At present, China has announced a goal of halving meat consumption by 2030. France and other countries have also banned food waste in supermarkets.

6. Agriculture and forest. 1 mitigation of climate change through afforestation and effective forest management, and other economic and ecological benefits. (2) to promote the integrated management of water and fertilizer and reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions through precision agriculture and changes in farmers' behavior.

three? The driving force for the low-carbon transformation of the global economy

There are good reasons to be optimistic that the pace of economic transformation may be much faster than many predict. The following three forces are coordinating the low-carbon transformation of the global economy:

1. Political motivation. At present, greenhouse gas emissions have peaked in 49 countries (accounting for 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions), 10 countries have announced that they will be carbon neutral by 2050, 9,138 cities (accounting for 10% of the global population) have pledged to comply with global conventions in the field of climate and energy, and 430 companies are committed to using advanced technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions scientifically.

2. Market forces. If renewable energy technologies continue to spread at the current rate, the sudden decline in global demand for fossil fuels will result in "asset stranding" by 2030, when worthless pipelines, coal mines and wells will cause trillions of dollars in losses. By 2035, fossil fuel importers such as China will benefit the most, while countries such as the United States, Canada and Russia will lose about $4 trillion.

3. Digital revolution. The digital revolution may become the biggest wildcard in economic transformation. Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. Online technology influences the decisions of 3 billion people, including investors, every day through e-commerce, search engines and social media. Existing technologies such as AI, cloud computing, the Internet of things and the companies behind them may determine whether humans can keep the temperature within 1.5C in the next decade.

four? Actual situation

Despite the possibility of reducing emissions, global greenhouse gas emissions are still growing in 2017. Although the digital revolution has created the modern world, it has not yet realized its potential to reduce global carbon emissions, and the low-carbon transformation of the vast majority of companies, cities and countries is too slow to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Infrastructure investment related to fossil fuels continues, and at this rate it will take at least another 60 years for the world to complete the energy transformation. In addition, with the exception of the power generation sector, low-ca