Four forces subvert the global economic trend.

On May 12, 2015, the American Public Affairs Press (Public Affairs) published a monograph entitled "Great subversion: the four Global Forces break all Trends" (No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends). It points out that the world today is undergoing a more drastic transformation brought about by four reasonable subversive forces, and proposes that the operating system of the global economy is being rewritten.

We must recognize the trend of reshaping the world and adapt to the new reality.

(1) the era of urbanization.

Global economic activity and dynamism are shifting to emerging markets and major cities in emerging markets, especially China.

Emerging market countries are experiencing both the industrialization and urbanization revolutions experienced by Britain in the 18th century and the contemporary developed countries in the 19th century.

In 2009, emerging markets contributed more to global growth than developed markets for the first time in more than 200 years.

In 2025, 15 years after emerging markets have become the world's main engine of growth, China will overtake the US or Europe as a base for more big companies. by then, nearly half of the large international companies in the Fortune 500 (with revenues of more than $1 billion) will come from emerging markets-up from less than 5 per cent in 2000.

Perhaps just as important, the centre of economic activity is shifting to these markets.

(2) accelerating technological change.

The scope, scale and economic impact of technology are accelerating.

From the mechanization of the industrial revolution to the current computer revolution, technological innovation has always been a great force to subvert the status quo.

As computing power increases, prices fall, devices proliferate and IT penetration increases, supercomputing power will soar at an alarming rate: it is estimated that the world added about 5 million terabytes of computing power in 2008 (at a cost of about $800 billion), more than 20 million terabytes in 2012 (less than $1 trillion), and 2014 is approaching the 40 million terabyte mark.

These extraordinary advances in capacity, power and speed are accelerating the rise of artificial intelligence, reshaping global manufacturing, and accelerating the progress of the Internet.

(3) the global aging is increasing.

The fertility rate is declining and the global population is rapidly entering its twilight years.

Aging is not a new problem in developed countries, and the populations of Japan and Russia have been declining over the past few years.

The population deficit is now spreading to China and will soon sweep across Latin America.

Population growth in most parts of the world will enter a steady period, and for the first time in human history, the population of countries such as South Korea, Italy and Germany is declining.

Thirty years ago, only a few countries, which accounted for only a fraction of the world's population, had fertility rates significantly lower than those required to replace the previous generation (about 2.1 children per woman).

But by 2013, about 60% of the world's people lived in these countries.

These trends have had a profound impact.

If productivity is not increased, a decline in the labour force will mean a decline in consumption, thus limiting economic growth.

(IV) Global linkages of trade, population, finance and data.

A more interconnected world has been created through trade and capital, population and information (data and communications) flows.

Trade and finance have long been part of globalization, but in recent decades, significant changes have taken place.

Replaced by a series of major trade hubs linking Europe and North America, the global trading system has expanded into a complex, complex and vast network.

Asia is becoming the largest trading area in the world.

The "South-South" flow between emerging markets has doubled its share of global trade over the past decade.

Trade between China and Africa increased from US $9 billion in 2000 to US $211 billion in 2012.

Global capital flows expanded 25-fold between 1980 and 2007.

The number of people going abroad reached 1 billion in 2009, which is five times that of 1980.

All three types of links began to slow after the global recession in 2008.

However, linkages built through technology continue to accelerate, ushering in a dynamic new phase of globalization, creating unparalleled opportunities and bringing about unexpected changes.