Protests Across Iran: Is War With the US or Israel Imminent — and What Would It Change?

Iran is once again at the center of global attention as widespread protests continue across the country, coinciding with heightened regional tensions involving the United States and Israel. Demonstrations fueled by political repression, economic hardship, and anger over state violence have created one of the most volatile moments Iran has faced in decades. As images of unrest spread and rhetoric between Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv sharpens, a pressing question looms: is Iran on the brink of war with the US or Israel—and if so, what would such a conflict actually change?

Why the Protests Matter Beyond Iran’s Borders

The current protests are not occurring in isolation. They reflect deep internal fractures within Iranian society, particularly between the state and younger generations. Protesters are demanding political freedoms, economic justice, and an end to authoritarian rule, despite facing a brutal crackdown by security forces.

For foreign governments, these protests complicate strategic calculations. Any external military action against Iran during a period of domestic unrest could strengthen hardliners, undermine protest movements, or trigger regional instability. As a result, internal unrest and external conflict are now deeply intertwined.

Rising Regional Tensions

Relations between Iran and both the US and Israel have deteriorated sharply in recent years. Israel has repeatedly accused Iran of advancing its nuclear program and supporting armed groups across the Middle East. The United States, while avoiding direct military confrontation, has imposed extensive sanctions and maintained a strong military presence in the region.

Recent incidents—including drone strikes, cyberattacks, and clashes involving Iranian-aligned militias—have increased fears of miscalculation. While none have escalated into full-scale war, each episode raises the risk of a broader conflict.

Is War Imminent?

Despite the heightened rhetoric, most analysts believe a full-scale war between Iran and the US or Israel is not imminent. All sides appear aware that such a conflict would be costly, unpredictable, and potentially catastrophic.

Israel has demonstrated a willingness to conduct targeted strikes, particularly against Iranian-linked assets, but has avoided actions that could trigger a regional war. The US, meanwhile, remains cautious, prioritizing deterrence and containment over direct confrontation.

Iran itself faces severe economic strain and domestic unrest, making a large-scale war an unattractive option. While leaders often use defiant language, they also appear focused on survival and internal control rather than open conflict.

The Role of Iran’s Leadership

Iran’s leadership has framed the protests as foreign-backed attempts to destabilize the country. This narrative serves two purposes: justifying repression at home and warning adversaries abroad.

However, launching or provoking a war could backfire. Historically, external threats have rallied nationalist sentiment, sometimes strengthening governments under pressure. Iranian authorities may believe that limited confrontation—short of war—can distract from protests without risking regime collapse.

How a War Would Affect Protest Movements

One of the biggest concerns among activists is that war would derail protest momentum. In times of external conflict, governments often impose emergency measures, suppress dissent more aggressively, and restrict communication.

A military confrontation could allow Iranian authorities to label protesters as traitors or collaborators, increasing arrests and executions. International attention might shift from human rights abuses to battlefield developments, leaving activists more isolated.

On the other hand, some argue that war-related economic collapse could deepen public anger. Yet history suggests that repression typically intensifies during wartime, limiting the space for organized resistance.

Regional Consequences of a Conflict

Any war involving Iran would likely extend beyond its borders. Iran has allies and proxy groups across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Israel could face attacks on multiple fronts, while US bases in the region would become targets.

Global energy markets would also be affected. Iran sits near critical shipping routes, and conflict could disrupt oil supplies, driving up prices worldwide. For Europe and Asia, already grappling with economic uncertainty, such disruption would be significant.

The Nuclear Question

Iran’s nuclear program remains a central concern for both the US and Israel. Israel has repeatedly signaled it will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, while Tehran insists its program is for peaceful purposes.

A military strike on nuclear facilities would not necessarily eliminate Iran’s capabilities and could push the country to accelerate weaponization. Many experts argue that diplomacy, however fragile, remains more effective than military action.

International Calculations

Global powers are watching closely. Russia and China maintain ties with Iran and oppose Western military intervention. European governments, while critical of Iran’s human rights record, fear that war would destabilize the region and worsen refugee flows.

The United Nations has called for restraint, urging all parties to avoid escalation while addressing human rights concerns through diplomatic channels.

What Would Actually Change?

If war were to break out, it would likely entrench existing power structures rather than transform them. Iran’s leadership could use the conflict to consolidate control, while regional instability would increase.

For protesters seeking reform or systemic change, war offers little promise. Instead, it risks silencing dissent, increasing suffering, and delaying any political progress.

Conversely, continued international pressure focused on human rights—rather than military action—may offer protesters greater visibility and support.

Conclusion: A Dangerous Crossroads

Iran stands at a critical crossroads, facing profound internal unrest alongside growing external pressure. While fears of war with the US or Israel are understandable, such a conflict remains unlikely in the immediate term.

What is clear is that war would not resolve Iran’s internal crisis. Instead, it would likely deepen repression, destabilize the region, and shift attention away from the voices demanding change. As protests continue, the challenge for the international community is to avoid escalation while supporting accountability, human rights, and a peaceful path forward.

For now, Iran’s future appears more likely to be shaped by its streets than by its battlefields.