Causes of the Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s growing influence in Ukraine is crucial to reviving its great power status, pursuing its ambitions in a non-threatening way, and undermining Western efforts to avoid a new Cold War. Putin has been expressing his intention for more than 30 years to establish a vast Russian-dominated security zone, akin to Moscow’s power during the Soviet era. Now, at 69 and perhaps in the twilight of his political career, he clearly wants to bring Ukraine, a country of 44 million people, into Russia’s orbit.

From Russia's perspective, the erosion of trust began with the promise made by the US and Western leadership during German unification in 1990 that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO expanded eastward, eventually including most of the European countries in the communist bloc. The Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, once part of the Soviet Union, joined NATO, along with Poland, Romania, and others. The plan was to include Ukraine.

Russia is the world's second-largest producer of natural gas, accounting for about 17 percent of supply in 2020. Russia exports more than 35 percent of its production and sends about 70 percent to Europe via pipelines, most of which pass through Ukraine. The largest is Nord Stream 1, with an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters.

West Texas Intermediate is currently at $95 per barrel, up from around $70 earlier this year. Disruptions to gas supplies will push up European natural gas prices. That will also affect oil prices, which could hit $120 a barrel. If Russian oil exports are halved, Brent oil will hit $150 a barrel.

A shock to international stability could hit global markets. Sanctions and counter-sanctions could be the most negative reaction to global financial markets since World War.

Over the past two years, Ukraine’s allies have provided a large amount of military, financial and humanitarian aid – according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, around $92 billion came from various European Union institutions as of January 2024, and $73 billion from the United States.

Western-supplied tanks, air defense systems and long-range artillery have greatly helped Ukraine fight the war.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been able to effectively strike targets in Ukraine. And drones are in high demand on both sides of the conflict, as they can evade air defenses.

The sanctions have not worked as the West had hoped. Russia is still able to sell oil and import equipment for its military industry from other countrieMoreover, Russia first entered Ukraine in 2014. At that time, rebels supported by President Putin took control of a large area of ​​eastern Ukraine. They have been fighting the Ukrainian army ever since.

An international Minsk peace agreement was signed to end the war, but the fighting did not stop there. And that is why the Russian leader says he is sending so-called peacekeepers to the region.s

The ‘deeper reason’ behind all this was the post-Cold War situation. In the early stages of the Cold War, both Russia and the West hoped that the collapse of the Soviet Union would usher in democracy in Russia and allow for a market economy. In the early years, Clinton and Yeltsin tried to build good relations. But when the US provided loans and economic aid to the government of Russian Prime Minister Russians said they expected more. A sense of deprivation angered the Russian people. Using that sense, Putin became nationalist and built an anti-Western image. This war can be seen as one of the consequences.

Moreover, Russia first entered Ukraine in 2014. At that time, rebels supported by President Putin took control of a large area of ​​eastern Ukraine. They have been fighting the Ukrainian army ever since.

An international Minsk peace agreement was signed to end the war, but the fighting did not stop there. And that is why the Russian leader says he is sending so-called peacekeepers to the region.