Turkish diplomacy in the Ukrainian crisis

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has ended an official visit to Ukraine and Russia. This visit was preceded by a meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers and the Turkish Foreign Minister in Antalya, in an attempt to intensify diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Amidst the polarization between the Russian camp and the Ukraine camp backed by Western countries, Turkey represents the group of countries that have irrevocable interests with both parties.

Turkey is strategically linked to all parties to the crisis, and therefore it has no choice but to maintain neutrality. Turkey’s relationship with Russia is more than good, although there are points of disagreement between the two countries at the level of regional politics, and it is also a member of NATO, meaning that it is a partner of the Western system that supported Ukraine, and considered that encroaching on it is an act that requires unity and punishing and curtailing the aggressor. The option that is beneficial to all in the eyes of Turkey was the option of negotiation, which it sought seriously, even before the outbreak of the war, and it is trying to bring the views between the two countries closer and defuse the crisis.

Demonstrating neutrality is not an easy task. In a time of crisis, it is easy to interpret any situation on the basis that it is aligning with one party or the other. That is why the Turks dealt with this crisis with great sensitivity. It is true that they closed the Bosporus to the passage of Russian military ships, as permitted by the Montreux Treaty, but they They also refused to enact a blanket boycott or sanctions against Russia, as the Western camp had demanded. Despite all this, the meetings and joint communication at all levels did not stop in order to clarify the Turkish position and remove any misunderstanding. Some are trying to belittle Turkish efforts, considering that it has not succeeded, so far, in establishing a ceasefire, but from a diplomatic point of view, Turkey has achieved many successes, foremost of which was the gathering of the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Russia for the first time, which meant maintaining a degree of diplomatic contact. What is important is between the two parties, as these meetings and the resulting statements showed that there is something that can be agreed upon between all, such as reducing the humanitarian cost of this conflict, and the right of civilians to pass through safe corridors. In addition, the meetings proved that Turkey remains a reliable friend not only of Ukraine, which insisted that any agreement carry a Turkish guarantee, but also of Russia, which would not allow the mediation of any other member of NATO. Turkey hoped to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough through its mediation and attempts to bring the parties together. Not only in order to appear as a successful mediator, who was able to defuse an international crisis, but also because resolving this conflict in a peaceful manner represents its national interest. In addition to the economic damage resulting from this war, which Turkey shares with other countries of the world, this conflict erupted At a time when the country was in dire need to complete the economic partnership programs with the two countries, and to receive large numbers of Russian and Ukrainian tourists. Compared with NATO's refusal to form a collective and strict stance on the crisis, arguing that Ukraine is not part of it, and considering that any intervention may exacerbate the problem and lead to a full-blown war, Turkey's position, condemning from the beginning the Russian attack, and emphasizing Ukraine's unity seems advanced. We also take into account the role that Turkish drones played in the battles to repel the Russian army, at a time when the Atlanticists were refusing to respond to Ukraine’s request to declare a no-fly zone, or provide quality weapons, while countries such as France and Germany were stating that they were not at war with Russia , and they can not give up Russian energy resources. Turkey's position has remained balanced and based on an attempt to preserve national interests. It is unlikely that Ankara will go further, or adopt the policy of "maximum pressure" pursued by Western countries, or even respond to the US proposal to give Ukraine Russian S-400 missiles.

Turkish diplomatic efforts were not limited to communication between the two countries, but also extended to other regional actors. In conjunction with the visit of the Foreign Minister to Moscow, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was receiving his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda in Ankara. Here, such bilateral meetings can be viewed as an attempt to create blocs with compatible visions from inside and outside the European Union, as there is much that unites the two countries, whether on the security or economic level or at the level of the current Ukrainian crisis. Poland shares with Turkey the keenness to end the conflict as quickly as possible, as it is one of the most affected by the geography, which made it a refuge for millions of Ukrainians. The scene of the influx of refugees reminds Turkey of receiving millions of Syrians, which prompted the Polish president to say that he wants to benefit from the Turkish experience in this field. It is important to mention here that Russian-Turkish relations, apart from joint trade and energy supplies, constituted a suitable alternative against the Atlantic estrangement, when Turkey was able to obtain the S-400 system after its NATO partners had refrained from giving it badly needed weapons such as Patriot defense missiles. All this did not prevent Turkey from establishing a strategic relationship with Ukraine. In addition to trade, investment and tourism, Ankara has supplied its advanced marches that Ukraine has benefited from in repelling separatist attacks and limiting their expansion. It has also started joint defense production projects and successful partnerships in the field of military technology. The advice that the Turks give Ukraine today is, to be a strong but neutral country, that is, not to be hostile to Russia and not be subject to the Atlanticists who abandoned it in the darkest of times.

The end of the crisis in a diplomatic manner is still the preferred option for the Turks. The victory of Western-backed Ukraine in this war, and Russia’s curtailment will represent a strengthening of the Western position, especially if it comes to achieving the goal of replacing the Russian leadership, which stands as a stumbling block in the way of Western projects, then it will not be excluded That the Western camp tries to encircle Turkey as a second target, in light of the hostility it faces with more than one European country.

On the other hand, achieving a crushing victory for Russia and continuing its expansion across the Black Sea may pose a threat to Turkey on the long or medium level. The relationship with Russia, no matter how good it seems, remains far from being a long-term alliance. The relationship between the two countries has been characterized during the past centuries by competition over areas Influence, and enslaved to end that day, especially with fears of the existence of Russian ambitions that may extend to the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, and even Istanbul itself, which is of historical religious importance to the Orthodox.