Anthony Chan
Bio
Chan Economics LLC, Public Speaker
Chief Global Economist & Public Speaker JPM Chase ('94-'19).
Senior Economist Barclays ('91-'94)
Economist, NY Federal Reserve ('89-'91)
Econ. Prof. (Univ. of Dayton, '86-'89)
Ph.D. Economics
Achievements (1)
Stories (306)
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How to Solve our Unemployment Crisis? Just Ask a Mom and her 4-Year-Old Daughter
Who would have thought that a young little girl was smarter than a Ph.D. Economist? During a visit to a fast-food restaurant, I stumbled upon a lady talking to someone that appeared to be a store manager and telling him that she was unable to come back to work because she wasn’t feeling well. And while, no one could really verify her statements, I did notice a cynical facial expression from the manager as he tried to convince her to accept a reduced work schedule.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in Families
Finding Ways to Cope with the Covid-19 Pandemic
Generating a quick solution to anything that is bothering us is something that most of us do best! There is little doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic has created challenges for all of us looking for ways to survive the effects of reduced social interaction. Fortunately, the human spirit has often focused on self-preservation over self-destruction each time we encounter a fork in the road of life.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in Families
Why Does the Number of People Collecting Unemployment Benefits Greatly Exceed the Number of People Officially Counted as Being Unemployed?
For years, I have been hearing people speculate that the official Unemployment Rate statistics are cooked for political purposes. But one little secret is that officials at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are non-partisan and adhere to the highest professional standards. That of course, does not mean that they can’t improve their survey methods or that they don’t make errors when tabulating these numbers. However, what it does mean is that the numbers are not made up to serve anyone’s political agenda.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in Journal
What Important Lessons Have we Learned from the Pandemic as we Prepare to Spring Forward?
With more time on our hands, the last 12-months of full and semi-quarantine have forced many of us into a deep state of self-reflection that lifted the veil that exposed a plethora of our deepest innermost thoughts.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in Humans
What the U.S. Employment Report Headlines (released on March 5, 2021) Don't Tell You?
The stronger than expected +379k gain in non-farm payrolls (Establishment Survey) and the +208k gain in the number of employed workers (Household Survey) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reported on March 5, 2021 was great news given that snow-storm activity during Feb. 2021 was supposed to have suppressed job creation. A weaker outcome was expected as some workers may have been unable to commute to work during the “Employment Survey Week,” due to inclement weather as seasonal factors are generally unable capture weather abnormalities.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in Trader
Does the U.S. National Unemployment Rate Accurately Describe Labor Market Conditions during the Covid-19 pandemic?
To answer this question, we go behind the scenes of this iconic statistic to garner a more accurate read of actual U.S. labor market conditions. First, it is important to mention that the U.S. Unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% in Feb. 2020 (pre-pandemic) to a peak of 14.8% in April 2020 and has since dipped to a much more favorable 6.3% reading as of Jan. 2021. On the surface, some may be tempted to interpret this movement as signaling that we are getting closer to declaring victory against the worse labor market collapse since the Great Depression in 1929!
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in The Swamp
How to Raise the National Minimum Wage Fairly and Avoid Massive Job Losses?
There is considerable debate about raising the National Minimum Wage to $15.00 per hour. Not surprisingly, since adjusting such wages upward on a national basis is a blunt instrument, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that raising the national minimum wage to $15.00 per hour could result in the loss of 1.4 million U.S. jobs.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in The Swamp
Is the U.S. Government Doing Too Little or Too Much To Help The Economy During the Covid-19 Pandemic?
Yes, they are on both counts! Nominal U.S. GDP reached it trough in Q2:2020 and was down $2.2T but in Q3:2020 it was down by just $580b, respectively from Q4:2019. Yet, in Dec. we passed a $935b stimulus relief bill and are now trying to pass another $1.9T dollar package. That is about $2.8T worth of economic relief to plug up a shortfall of $580b as of Q3:2020. This is on top of the $3.5T worth of additional stimulus (e.g., the CARES Act and several others) prior to the stimulus package signed in Dec. 2020. Interestingly, the economic shortfall from this pandemic is expected to narrow further in Q4:2020 as Real GDP is likely to grow by around 5.0%. To be sure, if much of the recent proposed economic stimulus legislation is approved by Congress and signed into law by the President --- U.S. real GDP in 2021 is likely to grow by 6.0% after contracting by about 3.5% in 2020.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in The Swamp
Were the U.S. S&P 500 gains in 2020 really surprising and what can we expect for 2021?
No! Dating back to 1928, the S&P 500 has risen by 22.6% during the years a U.S. recession has ended as was “likely” the case during 2020. We say “likely” because the official scorekeeper of business cycles, namely the National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially identified the end date of the current U.S. recession (as of the time of this writing) which they identified as beginning in Feb. 2020. However, many will agree that the recession probably ended in May or June 2020 as many economic indicators, e.g., U.S. employment reported sharp upturns. Against this backdrop, the reason for the muted 16.3% S&P 500 performance during 2020 could be attributed to outsized 33.9% downturn from Feb. 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 that required lots of catching up, to recover such losses. Stated another way, the S&P 500 enjoyed a massive 67.9% gain from its low on March 23, 2020 through year-end. Our optimistic S&P 500 return expectations for 2021 our built on economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve and Fiscal policy that has occurred along with the successful rollout of multiple vaccines. If our base case scenario materializes, we expect U.S. equity markets will rise by a robust 15% return year in 2021.
By Anthony Chan5 years ago in Trader
